Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
With the City primed to largely reopen for the first time since last October (it didn’t go well), new cases, hospitalizations, positivity rates and the case fatality rate are at historic lows.
A few months ago, Dr. Martin Makary wrote the pandemic would be in retreat by April. I thought at the time he was a covidiot. Even though it’s May, he had a point, reiterated and updated here.
Makary argued then, and now, that the level of natural immunity through infection combined with vaccination would bring down cases and hospitalizations to manageable levels. Reaching “herd immunity” may not be necessary to quell the crisis.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of May 4, DPH reports over 73 percent (558,545) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and over 50 percent (385,852) are completely vaccinated. On May 4, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 6,990. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
According to Covid-19 R Estimation the San Francisco R number dropped to .92, while the California R number stayed at .91. The ensemble estimates the average SF R Number at .79, while its California R Number average estimate stayed at .88.
Between April 1 and April 30, DPH reports 73 new cases in the Mission or 12.2 new cases per 10,000 residents. During that month, Bayview Hunters Point had the highest number of cases (92) and the highest rate (24.6 new cases per 10,000 residents). The Citywide rate was 10.6 new cases per 10,000 residents with 16 neighborhoods reporting 15 or fewer new cases.
For the week ending April 27, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 23 new cases, or 2.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.
During the month of April, Whites had 312 cases, Asians 167, Latinx 164, Blacks 149, Multi-racials 25, Pacific Islanders 24, and Native Americans had 3 cases.
For the week ending May 1, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 30 percent. During that week, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 37 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On May 1, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 1.75 percent of ICU occupancy and 1.1 percent of Acute Care occupancy. DPH reports on April 30, the City had 100 percent ICU and 96 percent Acute Care surge capacity.
The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week SFGH had 6 Covid patients and 80 percent ICU occupancy. On the other side of the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 34 percent ICU occupancy.
In April Blacks had a positivity rate of 1.98 percent, Pacific Islanders 1.90 percent, Latinx 1.5 percent, Whites .77 percent, Multi-racials 73 percent, Asians .59 percent while the positivity rate for Native Americans was negligible.
During the month of April, San Franciscans aged 18-29 had 323 cases, 30-39 had 217, 0-17 114, 40-49 105, 50-59 82, 60-69 48, 70-79 18, while 80 and above had 15 cases.
DPH has reported 6 deaths during the month of April and approximately 1968 cases for an April case fatality rate (CFR) of .3 percent.