Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Beginnng tomorrow, Covid Tracker will post only daily graphs. Commentary will be added at the beginning of each week unless circumstances change.

A strange drop in the cumulative number of SF cases. Strange but not unusual in the world of Covid numbers.

Vaccine equity? There is a long, long way to go.

A 24 percent increase in California youth suicides since 2019 suggests that unending school closures is not cost free. Homicides have also surged in the state.

California will revise its indoor mask regs next month.

The CDC’s latest mask-wearing edict continues to generate more heat than light. Although masking has become a political issue, the enduring controversy suggests there may be underlying psychological and sociological issues involved which are poorly understood .

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. SFDPH has yet to update vaccination numbers for the weekend. As of May 16, DPH reports  76 percent (582,121) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and  61 percent (466,490) are completely vaccinated.  On May 16, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 6,082. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation has its estimate for the San Francisco R number at .86, while slightly lowering its estimate for California to .85. All models in the ensemble show San Francisco and California below 1, with a San Francisco average estimate of .77, while California’s average estimate dropped to .81.

Between April 14 and May 13, DPH reports 70 new cases in the Mission or 11.7 new cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point remains the City’s hottest spot with 90 new cases over the past month or 24.1 new cases per 10,000 residents. Fifteen neighborhoods had 10 or fewer cases.

For the week ending May 10, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 20 new cases, or 2.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

The graph above shows the daily totals. DPH will delay cumulative totals for May until May 20.

For the week ending May 14, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 35 percent.  During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On May 14, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 3.2 percent of ICU occupancy and .4 percent of Acute Care occupancy and the City had 100 percent ICU and 100 percent Acute Care surge capacity.

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week that SFGH had 5 Covid patients and 83 percent ICU occupancy..

The Citywide weekly average positivity rate has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic began.

According to California’s DPH, the state’s most recent 7-day average positivity rate has sunk to .9 percent. It’s the “California Miracle” 2.0

There have been 0 nursing home deaths reported in SF since January 19. There have been 0 new cases reported since April 17. In Single Room Occupancy Hotels (SROs) there have been 34 cases and 0 deaths since March 23.

Covid-related death numbers are anythng but static. According to DPH today, the 541st death was reported on May 8, and is the only Covid-related SF death in May.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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7 Comments

  1. Thank you so much for all of this information, every day, for over a year.

    It was a great feeling when you started taking Sundays off, and now a continued relief that you won’t need to publish commentary every day.

  2. Have followed these daily commentaries for a while. The recent low case rates make it a good time to go to weekly commentary. 🙂
    RE: For the week ending May 10, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 20 new cases, or 2.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.
    If downward trend of last 10 days continue, the 7 day average of daily new cases could drop to 15 or 16 by end of this week. That will be at 1.8 new cases per day per 100,000 which is the target for case rate in SFDPH Key Public Health Indicators. It will be the first time that target will have been met. Noteworthy.
    BTW if wondering why odd number of 1.8 instead of nice round number, the target was 1 new case per day per 100,000 based on CA DPH target back in May 2020. It appeared that the lower number was too difficult to meet, and it was changed to 25 cases in last 14 days which was a higher but still manageable number for controlling outbreaks. The 25 cases in last 14 days works out to average of about 1.8 cases per day.

  3. RE: A strange drop in the cumulative number of SF cases. Strange but not unusual in the world of Covid numbers.
    Again due to correction of historical case numbers. Happens from time to time probably from data sources feeding into the total case number getting mixed up. The actual increase in number of cases in last 7 days is 22.

  4. Mark, thank you for such consistent and honest reporting, and for interpreting the often confusing numbers so that readers could really understand what was happening. Grateful for your work.

  5. Oh, man, I’m really, really going to miss your daily commentary. Especially seeing how this thing ain’t over, and we’ve got some big changes coming down the pipeline.

    But I’m glad we’ll at least still get your commentary weekly, and I’m very glad that the daily statistics will still be posted.

  6. So there is an increase in violence and suicide. I just thought that maybe without the orange thug in the White House the media just decided to start reporting actual news.

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