Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

How are our neighbors faring after one full year of pandemic madness?

Epidemiologists who have predicted a big B117 surge say once it hits 50 percent of the known cases in an area, the surge takes off. Figured to be 50 percent more transmissible, the variant, is now the dominant strain in Florida. Keep an eye on wide-open spring break Florida over the next two weeks.

Or not. After all Florida has a bit of a rep for undercounting Covid cases.

And Florida is not alone when it comes to faulty data. A new article in The Atlantic argues local and national data collection, production, interpretation and analysis led to major problems when the virus hit last year and continues to plague a coherent response.

Readers, and eaters, will be pleased to note data is not on the menu at Biriani House, the Mission’s latest Indian restaurant. And say hello to old friend Luna Park, now LUNA, a new entry in the local burger frays.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

According to DPH,  the California Immunization Registry data system continues to undercount vaccinations. As of March 17,  35 percent (269,970) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while 17 percent (126,992) had received two.  On March 16, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day rose to 9,349.3.  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

The transmission rate in San Francisco remains at historic lows with  Covid-19 R Estimation putting our local number in a range from .42 to .78, for an average of .60, whereas  the ensemble ranges from .46 to .83 for an average of .68. Though still low, California has seen a small uptick in the R number with a range today between .41 and .83 for an average of .77. The state, with a new rise in case numbers, is now home to a high percentage of the B117 variant along with other “Variants of Concern”.   Covid-19 R Estimation puts the Imperial County R Number at .99

Between February 14 and March 15,  DPH added 155 new cases to the Mission or 25.5 new cases per 10,000 residents. Though the Mission had the highest number of new cases, Tenderloin had the highest rate at 37.2 new cases per 10,000 residents, while Seacliff had just 1 case reported over that time.

For the week ending March 10, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was  31 or 3.6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The Phoenix Data Project sees the virus spread stabilizing in this zone, which is close to where the City was last October before the fall surge.

Between March 1 and March 15, White residents had 155 positive tests, Latinx 121, Asians 97, Blacks 41, Multi-racials 15, Pacific Islander 8 and Native American 1 positive test.  

Though low and still falling, local hospitalizations remain above where they were in October. Today’s figures include 2 ICU transfers and 0 Acute Care transfers. For the week ending March 16, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 12 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 31 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On March 16, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 5 percent of ICU patients and 1.6 percent of Acute Care patients. DPH says capacity for a potential surge is at 100 percent.

According to the most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, last week SFGH had 3 Covid patients, UCSF had 21, Kaiser 11, CPMC Van Ness 6, and CPMC Mission 6.

Between January 12 and March 15, Mission residents had a positivity rate of 2.84 percent. Treasure Island had 6.5 percent, Tenderloin had 4.91 percent, Bayview Hunters Point 4.84 percent, Excelsior 3.84 percent, Bernal Heights 2.39 percent, Western Addition 2.28 percent, Hayes Valley 1.51 percent, Castro 1.22 percent, and Glen Park .96 percent.

Between March 1 and March 15, men tested positively 254 times and women 231 times. Trans men and trans women did not test positive at all.

Yes, one less death reported today than yesterday, which was probably not intended to be a riff on the old Mark Twain joke. As of March 15, men made up 59.7 percent of all SF Covid-related deaths, while women made up 38.7 percent. Other made up 1.1 percent and .4 percent were unknown.

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Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. With the single-dose J&J vaccine now being offered, how does that affect vaccine tracking and reporting ?

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