Thirty-eight years after planning began, San Francisco officials have landed on a spot for a future Caltrain station in Bayview: Oakdale Avenue.
The choice of Oakdale Avenue came as a result of a study from the San Francisco County Transportation Authority concluded this year. It comes after nearly four decades of back-and-forth studies that oscillated between two locations — a site on Oakdale, and one half a mile away on Evans Avenue.
Once built, it would be the first time Bayview has had a Caltrain station since the Paul Avenue station closed in 2005 due to extremely low ridership and its isolated location.
The Oakdale location won out as it consistently scored higher in anticipated ridership, climate resiliency, access, and deliverability, according to the agency’s study.
The Evans location, which borders Islais Creek, may also be impacted by sea level rise in the years to come. The agency also found that it would likely cost $120 million more to build on Evans.
Even on Oakdale, the build out will take time: Andrew Heidel, a planner for the San Francisco County Transportation Authority, said at a meeting on Monday evening that it may be a decade before the station breaks ground. The project will need at least $27 million in funding to move forward to the next phase, Heidel said, from state and federal funds — a hurdle.
The cost of the project was pegged at between $100 and $200 million in 2022. Heidel said estimates have only risen since then.
“We’re still a ways off,” said Heidel.
The Transportation Authority Board, which is made up of the 11 members of the Board of Supervisors, is expected to vote on whether to approve the study, and the choice of Oakdale Avenue, in October.
The process has been messy.
Since 1988, San Francisco officials have sponsored five different studies and spent thousands of dollars to find a new location for a Bayview Caltrain station. In that time, the neighborhood, environmental factors, and the rail line have dramatically changed — stirring a decades-long debate.
The most recent study settling on Oakdale took three years.
It won’t be the first time the agency finds itself recommending the Oakdale site. In 2022, a study found that a station at the location would not only be economically feasible, it would increase ridership on Caltrain. It presented those findings to the Planning Commission and the Board of Supervisors.
The Planning Commission approved the study and urged the agency to move it forward. But the board, led by Supervisor Shamann Walton, hit the brakes: Walton instead instructed the agency to conduct yet another study to consider Evans as an alternative location.
Walton said he was responding to residents’ demands: Evans has become a hub in Bayview — the Southeast Community Center moved from Oakdale to Evans in 2022, and the neighborhood’s shopping center, the Bayview Plaza, is located across the street. Many residents wanted the Caltrain station there, too.
“With the new Southeast Community Center on Evans and the Bayview Plaza in the same area, some residents wanted to know if it made sense for a Caltrain Station at that location on Evans,” said Walton.
This time, Walton will likely approve the choice. “I do believe that after further analysis, Oakdale is less expensive [and] is also centrally located,” said Walton. Ultimately, he said, “I will support [what] the majority of the community wants.”
