Covid-19 Tracker: Virus sticking around

Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations and recorded infections are down from last week, while positivity rates have risen and R Number models rose back above 1. Wastewater monitoring from Stanford University shows the virus on the rise.

The worst news this week came with the report that the City would defund the community hubs that have provided testing, vaccination, food and isolation support in the southeast sector of the City. If true, this would represent the most cynical and shortsighted actions taken by a City administration that prefers to gaslight rather than try to prevent or slow down transmission.

Is this the way the City prepares for the possibility of a dangerous surge this fall? Not to mention the next pandemic. And there will be a next one.

It happened before, when public officials buried their heads in the sand. And, as this article presented by the International Monetary Fund notices, “Recurring pandemics are already baked into the system.”

Neither the City nor the Department of Public Health have responded to questions. Nor have we heard fromthe University of California, San Francisco, which played an outsized role in the creation and funding of the hubs. But perhaps UCSF has other things to do. Although it’s the real public health institution in the City, UCSF is not accountable to the public.

Recorded infections are down from last week but, as we know, not all infections are recorded. A survey in New York suggests the real number may be 30 times higher than what gets reported.

The State has nothing new to report on wastewater monitoring, while a Stanford project shows the virus high and rising.

We can always hope that increasing transmission will lead to milder variants, but hope is not a “tool”. In any case, there is no reason to believe the virus will evolve to become less virulent.

The science, and the scientists, have long called for a ventilation upgrade in buildings around the country (notably in SF schools). This article in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests now is the time to get on it, using funds from the “American Rescue Plan”. Unfortunately, President Trump (sorry, Biden) wants to give that money to the police. Which the Mayor of the SF Police Officers Association has already done.

It doesn’t get much attention, but the covid crisis, specifically “long covid,” has become a mass-disabling event that experts liken to HIV and polio. Will it alter the way we think about disability?

Ready for the 5th shot? Moderna says it’s ready to go once it gets guaranteed profits from the Feds.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

Over the past week, hospitalizations dropped 124 percent (representing 25 fewer patients). On June 4, DPH reports there were 75 covid hospitalizations, or about 8.6 covid hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). After two weeks in double figures, the number of ICU patients dropped to its lowest point since May 18. The California Department of Public Health currently reports 88 covid patients in SF hospitals with 11 patients in ICU.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 15 covid patients and 8 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 10 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available. Of 103 reported covid patients in the City, 36 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 71 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration or Laguna Honda). The California DPH currently reports 115 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Between April 4 and June 3, DPH recorded 1244 new infections among Mission residents (an increase of 80 percent from last week) or 212 new infections per 10,000 residents. During that period, Mission Bay continued with the highest rate at 348 new infections per 10,000 residents. Of 38 neighborhoods, 27 had rates above 200 per 10,000 residents, with 15 in the east and southeast sectors of the City. Treasure Island continued with the lowest rate and Lakeshore, the only neighborhood in the City with less than 50 percent of its population vaccinated, continued to have the second lowest rate.

DPH reports on May 31, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City dipped to 447 or approximately 51.1 new infections per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population), representing a 7 percent drop from last week. According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 48.4 per 100,000 “fully vaccinated” residents and 100.1 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents. It is unclear whether “fully vaccinated” means 2, 3 or 4 doses. According to the New York Times, the 7-day average number on May 31 was 519. The latest report from the Times says the 7-day average on June 7 was 516, a 9 percent decrese over the past two weeks. As noted above State wastewater monitoring has nothing new report, while Stanford shows the virus on the rise in sewers.

In May Asians recorded 4,2023 new infections or 30.4 percent of the month’s cases; Whites 3,472 infections or 25.1 percent; Latinxs 1,625 infections or 11.8 percent; Blacks 488 infections or 3.5 percent; Multi-racials 101 infections or .7 percent; Pacific Islanders 79 infections or .6 percent; and Native Americans had 37 recorded infections in May or .3 percent of the May totals.

The 7-day rolling Citywide average positivity rate rose 12.4 percent during the past week, while average daily testing dropped 17.2 percent. In May, DPH reports that Native Americans had a 12.7 percent positivity rate, Asians 12.5 percent, Pacific Islanders 11.4 percent, Multi-racials 11.3 percent, Whites 9.9 percent, Latinxs 10.8 percent, and Blacks had a positivity rate of 8.5 percent in May.

Vaccination rates in SF show virtually no change from last week with the number of residents who have received at least one dose rising .07 percent and the number of residents receiving a booster rising .66 percent.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Nine new covid-related deaths, all in May, have been reported, bringing the total since the beginning of the year to 195. DPH won’t say how many were vaccinated. Nor does it provide information on the race/ethnicity or socio-economic status of those who have recently died. According to DPH “COVID-19 deaths are suspected to be associated with COVID-19. This means COVID-19 is listed as a cause of death or significant condition on the death certificate.” Using a phrase like “suspected to be associated with” indicates the difficulty in determining a covid death. The fog gets denser as DPH reports, incredibly as it has for months, only 21 of the deaths are known to have had no underlying conditions, or comorbidities. DPH only supplies cumulative figures on deaths.

The lack of reliable infection number data makes R Number estimates very uncertain. Covid R Estimation on June 3 estimated the San Francisco R Number raised its estimate to 1.3 while its estimate for the California R Number on June 4 rose to 1.4. The ensemble, as of June 5, lowered its estimate of the San Francisco R Number to .85 and lowered its California R Number to .86. Note: Three models show SF under 1, with one recording a barely credible .45.

In May, DPH reports those San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 558 recorded infections in May or 4 percent of the month’s total; 5-11 604 infections or 4.4 percent; 12-17 491 infections or 3.6 percent; 18-20 309 infections or 2.2 percent; 21-24 811 infections or 5.9 percent; 25-29 1,659 infections or 12 percent; 30-39 3,294 infections or 23.8 percent; 40-49 2,140 infections or 15.5 percent; 50-59 1,795 infections or 13 percent; 60-69 1,196 infections or 8.6 percent; 70-79 620 infections or 4.5 percent; and those San Franciscans aged 80 and above had 352 infections or 2.5 percent of the month’s total.