Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Hospitalizations have been trending downward recently, dropping below 20 for the first time since July 11, 2021. Stable case numbers, an average positivity rate below 2 percent and R Number models hanging around or below 1 suggest that the virus may be taking a breather locally.
In case you missed it, Gov. Gavin Newsom was in the district, paying homage to the outstanding work accomplished by the University of California, San Francisco/Latino Task Force coalition, now seen as a public health model for the state, and should be a model for the country,
How much immunity can you expect after having been infected with the virus? The Lancet’s Infectious Disease journal looks into the question, and the answers look promising so far.
Cases are surging nationally, and hospitalizations are rising. David Leonhart of the New York Times sums up the current situation.
Will we need semi-annual or annual boosters? A “computational biologist” discusses the current situation and what might be on the horizon.
Things are not looking good at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration this morning. A rise in Medicare premiums is expected, driven in part by the new Alzheimer’s drug recently given the FDA green light, even though its own independent advisors warned the trials had shown little benefit and could cause serious risk of harm. Now we are seeing evidence of that harm. Will Biden’s new head of the FDA change the corporate-friendly culture? Maybe, although he has millions invested in Big Pharma and Big Tech. (Note: most of the article is behind a paywall, but the opening paragraphs give a good idea).
Finally, more on using rapid tests from David Leonhart.
Note: Covid Tracker will not publish this Friday or next Monday.
Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Nov. 23, DPH reports more than 84 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and 77 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise to 88 percent and 80 percent. SFDPH reports that as of Nov 22, 175,568 residents have received the booster including 50 percent of residents 65 and over. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
On Nov. 20, DPH reports there were 17 covid hospitalizations, or about 1.9 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). There are no new updates on hospitalizations among what used to be considered “fully vaxxed” residents or those who received boosters. For September data see the latest from DPH. The CDC seems to have discontinued reporting recent admissions and proportions of covid patients in San Francisco hospitals.
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 7 covid patients and 4 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 4 covid patients and 2 ICU beds available. Of 36 reported covid patients, 22 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 64 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 75 ICU beds available in San Francisco. SFDPH won’t say.
Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Sept. 20 and Nov. 19, DPH recorded 280 cases in the Mission or a rate of 48 per 10,000 residents. During that period, although Bayview Hunters Point had the most cases (225), the Marina had the highest rate, 72 per 10,000 residents (the only SF neighborhood in excess of 60 per 10,000 residents).
On Nov. 16, the 7-day average of daily new cases in the City was 57, or approximately 6.5 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). The 7-day average case rate among vaccinated (not boosted) residents was 5.7 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents, 11.5 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.
As of Nov.17, DPH reports Whites have recorded 494 infections this month, 45 percent of the total; Asians 225 infections, 20.5 percent, Latinxs 165 infections, 15 percent, Blacks 44 infectons, 4 percent, Multi-racials 24 infections, 2.2 percent, Pacific Islanders 10 infections, .9 percent and Native Americans recorded 6 infections so far this month, .5 percent of the total.
Between Sept. 20 and Nov.19, the Mission recorded a test positivity rate of 1.7 percent. During that period, the Marina had the highest positivity rate at 2.9 percent, one of 8 neighborhoods with positivity rates of 2 percent or higher.
No new deaths to report. The Delta total (August through November) so far is 93 and the cumulative covid-related death toll stands at 670. As of Sept. 30, DPH reports 16 covid-related deaths among “fully vaccinated” residents. Of those San Franciscans who died covid-related deaths, and approximately 3 percent had no underlying conditons.
Covid R Estimation raised its San Francisco R Number back over 1 to 1.04. For the California R Number, the estimate rose to .99. The ensemble raised its average for the San Francisco R Number to .7. All models in the ensemble currently show the City below 1. The average California R Number remained at .89 with all but one model showing the state below 1.
As of Nov. 17, DPH reports that among San Francisco residents aged between 0-4, there were 25 new cases so far this month, 2.3 percent of the total; 5-11 63 new cases, 5.7 percent, 12-17 22 new cases, 2 percent, 18-20 22 new cases, 2 percent, 21-24, 103 new cases 9.6 percent, 25-29 244 new cases, 22.2 percent, 30-39 313 new cases, 28.5 percent, 40-49 130 new cases, 11.9 percent, 50-59 80 new cases, 7.3 percent, 60-69 59 new cases, 5.4 percent, 70-79 23 new cases, 2.1 percent, and those 80+ had 13 new cases so far in November, 1.2 percent.