Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

The numbers today continue to be stable except for Covid-19 R Estimation which raised its estimate again for the San Francisco R Number. Don’t get freaked out by the new death number.

While the School Board has been making news by focusing names and old tweets, the differences for students between public and private schools in the City could not be more clear, or depressing.

With Mission Creek Ballpark (aka Oracle) and Chase Center about to open with a reduced number of fans, there is some debate over the precautions for fans. No official reports yet, but Mission Local has heard there are no precautions, other than temperature checks, at Oracle for the workers. Really? We know the Giants ownership care little about racism, but after all this time, after all the criticism, all the SCIENCE , will Dr. Grant Colfax allow this preposterous, and potentially murderous, situation to exist? Note: workers currently at Chase have to pass a rapid test to get in.

A lot of talk these days about vaccinations and natural infections leading to “herd immunity” and an end to the pandemic. Epidemiologist Carl Bergstrom says it’s not that simple.

Fixated on chicken. Maria reviews Chic n’ Time on Valencia.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

No new vaccination numbers to report today. As of April 4, 49 percent (378,811) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 29 percent (220,225) had received two.  On April 4, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 10,986. For the first time, DPH met and surpassed its goal of 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

  Covid-19 R Estimation  has raised its San Francisco R  Number estimate back to 1.09 and California estimate to .92, while the ensemble keeps its average estimate for San Francisco at  .77 and for California at .81

Between March 4 and April 2,  DPH added 89 new cases to the Mission or a rate of 15 new cases per 10,000 residents. During that time, the Marina had the highest rate in the City at 23.3 new cases per 10,000 residents, North Beach had 22.3 and South Beach 17 new cases per 10,000 residents. Very unusual to see these rates in nieghborhoods not the Tenderloin or in the City’s Southeast sector. The Citywide rate was 11.6 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending March 28, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City remained at 36 or 4.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

In March, Whites had 36 percent of the month’s cases, Latinx 24.3 percent, Asians 20 percent, Blacks 7.2 percent, Multi-racials 2.8 percent., Pacific Islanders and  Native Americans had less than 1 percent month’s cases.  

For the week ending April 3, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 29 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On April 3, Covid patients made up 1.4 percent of available ICU beds  and 1.7 percent of Acute Care beds. Surge capacity is reported to be at 100 percent for both ICU and Acute Care. 

According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, ovr the past week, SFGH reported 8 Covid patients and an ICU occupancy of 83 percent, while across the Mission, CPMC reported 2 Covid patients and an ICU occupancy of 51 percent.

From Janury 30 through April 2, Mission residents took 24,523 tests with a 1.95 percent positivity rate. Higher positivity rates were reported in Treasure Island 4.14 percent, Tenderloin 3.54 percent, Portola 3.2 percent, Visitacion Valley 2.8 percent, Chinatown 2.5 percent and Excelsior 2.4 percent.

Younger residents are known to have higher case numbers but lower hospitalization and death figures. For example in San Francisco, those aged 18-39 make up 47 percent of the cases and 1 percent of the deaths (DPH does not provide demographic information on hospitalizations) . Yet a recent national poll shows about half that group are anxious about expanded reopenng.

The last recorded death in San Francisco came on March 22.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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