Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

India demonstrates the political nature of the pandemic. Writer Arundhati Roy provides an excellent, detailed, and highly readable look at the crisis.

Confused about the CDC/California outdoor masking guidance? You’re not alone.

Earlier this year the CDC was worried about vaccinated people transmitting the virus to the unvaccinated. If you “follow the science”, that fear no longer makes sense.

The Vaccine has been shown to provide immunity for six months. We only have six months of data. Most likely the protection provided will last a good bit longer.

While waiting for India to rid us of Modi, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. Vaccination rates have been falling precipitously and its not due to a lack of supply or distribution problems. As of April 28, DPH reports over  70 percent (540,190) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 46 percent (352,613) are completely vaccinated.  On April 28, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was down to 6,860. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation keeps its estimate of the San Francisco R number just over .9 at .91 while maintaining its estimate for California at .88. All the models in the ensemble keep the SF R Number below 1 with an average estimate of .84, while its California R Number average estimate rose a bit to .88.

Between March 26 and April 24, DPH reports 70 new cases in the Mission or 11.74 new cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point had the highest number with 86, while the FiDi/South Beach had the highest rate at 26.2 new cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate for that period was 11.11 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending April 21, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 29 new cases, or 3.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. This is the first time the new case average has been below 30 since the week ending October 9.

Based on the group’s population, as of April 23, Pacific Islanders has an April case rate of 66.9, Blacks 22.7, Native Americans 14, Latinx 9.3, Whites 7.5, Multi-racials 4.9, and Asians 4.8 while the Citywide rate is 8.4.

Hospitalizations of confirmed Covid patients are at their lowest point since October 15. For the week ending April 25, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 20 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 37 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 25, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 3.8 percent of ICU occupancy and 1.1 percent of Acute Care occupancy.  DPH reports on April 25, the City had 100 percent ICU and 98 percent Acute Care surge capacity

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week SFGH had 6 Covid patients and 77 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 44 percent ICU occupancy.

The Citywide weekly average positivity rate has fallen below .80 percent for the first time since March 10. Prior to that date, the City had not been below .80 since the week ending October 8.

San Francisco’s skilled nursing facilities report 0 new cases or deaths since February 8. Single Room Occupancy hotels (SROs) report 7 new cases in April and 0 deaths since February 23.

According to DPH, there have been 4 Covid-related deaths so far this month and 21 Covid-related deaths in March.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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