Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Increasing ICU patients in SF hospitals tops the Covid news today. See below. But first . .

MUST READ. When official corruption/incompetence aids and abets the State’s most notorious serial killer, the results will be explosive, and deadly. Not if, but when.

So George Floyd’s killer was convicted. The Mission reacts to this minor miracle with a mix of elation and realism.

How will the U.S. upgrade its public health infrastructure when “public health” is a foreign concept to a substantial portion of the population.

Is it possible to keep restaurants and other businesses open and reduce Covid infections? Here’s a radical idea. Provide protection for vulnerable workers.

Of course diners will need protection too.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 20, DPH reports 65 percent (501,493) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and over 42 percent (323,445) are completely vaccinated.  On April 20, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 10,446. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation  puts  the San Francisco R Number in a range from .86 to 1.22 for an average of 1.02 (still one of the highest in the State) while keeping it’s estimate for the California R  Number to .95. The ensemble has the San Francisco R Number ranging from .52 to 1.07, for a more optimistic .78 average, which is its same average for California. 

Between March 18 and April 16, DPH reported 72 new cases in the Mission, or 12.1 new cases per 10,000 residents. It’s the second highest absolute number in the City, one lower than the Marina, but the rate per 10,000 residents is on the low end, behind sixteen neighborhoods geographically spread throughout the City. 

For the week ending April 13, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City remained at 33 or 3.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The daily average new case number has been below 40 since March 4.

Though Whites have had the highest number of cases in April (206), the case rate for Whites (based on the group’s population) is on the low end at 5.8. In comparison, Blacks have had a rate of 12.6, Native Americans 7.3, Latinx 6.6, and Asians 3.8.  Pacific Islanders have had only 16 cases, but a rate of  59.4

Since April 9, the Covid ICU patient count has increased from 3 to 11 (266 percent). At a time when new case numbers and positivity rates are low, this may reflect those who have not received, or refused, the vaccine. For the week ending April 17, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 10 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On April 17, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 4.5 percent of ICU occupancy and 1.5 percent of Acute Care occupancy.  No, DPH still does not provide any demographic or cumulative information regarding hospitalizations.

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week SFGH had 7 Covid patients, 25 percent of all Covid patients from reporting hospitals.

The Citywide average positivity rate has been at or below 1 since March 3. 

 

So far in April, all age groups have had a decline in cases from February and March.  Those from 30-39 have the highest count with 132, while the lowest are those 4 and under with 7 and those 80 and over with 9.

Be careful when reading media reports on Covid-related death numbers. For example, the New York Times in its daily SF summary today reports “Deaths have increased” and supplies a graph showing 41 deaths in the past two weeks. But unless DPH is telling the Times something it’s not telling us, there has only been 1 death reported in April. The other 40 are deaths that were added into February and March totals  (and may have occurred earlier).

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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