Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

The CDC this morning gave a thumbs up to travel for those fully vaccinated. And the agency also walked back comments from its director indicating those fully vaccinated never become infected or transmit the virus. Although the available evidence shows the likelihood that infection and transmission by the vaccinated is very low, Ms. Walensky’s mother should have taught her never to say “never.”

It will be some time before most people get vaccinated. In the meantime, over-the-counter rapid antigen tests are beginning to roll out. We will probably be seeing a lot of use soon.

Things are never really that rosy in Covid land as we are seeing new cases beginning to rise in SF and Santa Clara warns we are on the precipice of the 4th surge.

Blue Shield has begun its take-over California’s vaccine distribution system by fixing what isn’t broken.

On a lighter note, for those of us into dark humor, Joe takes a deeper dive into Allison Collins’ lawsuit agains the Board of Edcuation.

Restaurants and small businesses have been getting bail-out loans and grants by governments at all levels, but as Kate reports, it’s not enough.

And in a testimony to neighborly communication and cooperation, the Virgin Guadalupe mural on Lilac Alley is coming down, but it will rise again.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

DPH reports California “is implementing a new version of the California Immunization Registry (CAIR2). As a result, data may fluctuate throughout the month as the State continues to improve the dataset.” As of April 1, 47 percent (357,621) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 26 percent (201,920) had received two.  On March 31, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 9,754.  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

After a deep dip and a rapid rise,  Covid-19 R Estimation  currently sees the San Francisco R  Number on a slow decline to  .93 while the ensemble keeps its average estimate for San Francisco at  .77 and for California at .80. However, note the wide range of uncertainty with respect to the SF number. Covid-19 R Estimation’s range is .71 to 1.21 and the ensemble ranges from .62 to 1.07

Between March 1 and March 30,  DPH added 94 new cases to the Mission or a rate of 15.7 new cases per 10,000 residents. Over those 30 days, most neighborhoods had less than 35 new cases. Exceptions were Tenderloin (66), Bayview Hunters Point (62), and, suprisingly, the Marina (50).  If you remember, the new case rise in the Marina last fall was the first harbinger of the Citywide surge that followed.   

For the week ending March 25, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City had  crept up again to 37 or 4.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents, which represents a 23 percent rise since March 18.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Native Hawaiin and Pacific Islanders have a case rate of 1511 cases per 10,000 residents, Latinx have 1086, Native Americans 712, Blacks 465, Whites 218, Asians 215 and Multi-racials have a rate of 172 cases per 10,000 residents .

Another new low for Covid hospitalizations in San Francisco. Keep an eye on hospitalizations as new cases rise and you should see the benefits of vaccination. Or not.  For the week ending March 31, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 26percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On March 31, Covid patients made up 1.75 percent of available ICU beds  and 1.5 percent of Acute Care beds. Surge capacity in ICU is reported to be 100 percent and 93 percent in Acute Care. 

According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, of 44 reported Covid patients, SFGH, UCSF and Kaiser had 32.

Despite the rise in new cases, the Citywide average positivity rate remains below 1 percent. Testing has fallen off in part due to vaccination. The average number of tests performed is approximately where it was in late October.

As of March 31, 23,281 Mission residents, or 40 percent of the neighborhood, have received at least one vaccine dose. Of note, the neighborhoods with the highest vaccination rates in the City (one dose) are Japantown (55 percent), Portola (50 percent), Excelsior (47 percent) and Bayview Hunters Point (46 percent).

Based on 474 Covid-related deaths and 35,170 cases, the current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in SF is 1.35 percent, while the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) based on “true infections” is approximately between .34 percent and  .45 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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