Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

New cases, positivity rates and hospitalizations remain flat and relatively low. And most models show the San Francisco R Number near or below one.

The virus has been running rampant in Canada, especially Ontario where another lockdown has been announced with added police enforcement. But do essential(ly screwed) workers get added sick days, time off for vaccination, increased protection mandates like N95 masks? No way.

Pfizer and Moderna are talking about a booster shot and a yearly vaccine. Are they following the science or the money?

Another new study showing the vaccines provoke T-cell responses against the variants of concern, but also other “variants” such as the common cold.

Has once and future School Superintendent Vincent Matthews vaccinated the Board of Education? Joe reports that the Board has agreed to Matthews’ insistence that they follow their own rules and focus on school reopenings. Follow their own rules? How draconian!

Meet Avi Ehrlich, who reports a high demand for comic books during the pandemic.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 16, DPH reports 62 percent (474,688) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 40 percent (309,675) are completely vaccinated.  On April 16, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 10,922. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

  Covid-19 R Estimation  kept its estimate of the San Francisco and California R  Numbers at 1.03. Most models in the ensemble have the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average estimate of .79 while its average estimate for California fell a bit to .82

As of March 12, DPH reports the Mission with 4059 total cases or 680.1 cases per 10,000 residents.  Bayview Hunters Point has a cumulative rate of 1,015.4 cases per 10,000 residents, Visitacion Valley has 754, Tenderloin 748.3, Excelsior 655.3, Portola 618.3, Outer Mission 587.9 and SOMA 518.6 cases per 10,000 residents. Outside the City’s Souteast sector, the neighborhood with the highest rate is Japantown with 506.9, while the Inner Sunset has the lowest rate in the City with 170 cases per 10,000 residents.

At publication time, this graph only shows past and partial figures. We are working on a fix. the good news is that for the week ending April 9, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 34 or 3.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

As noted above, the Ontario government will bring out the cops to force people off the streets, but can’t be bothered to provide protection, treatment or assistance to the essential(ly screwed) workers who are getting sick. As this piece from the British Medical Journal argues, testing programs which are not linked to assistance and protection programs drive both infections and disparities.

For the week ending April 13, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 13 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 36 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On April 13, DPH reports 93 ICU beds and 325 Acute Care beds available, but still refuses to report how many of those beds are actually staffed. 

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows SFGH, UCSF and Kaiser accounted for 25 of the 30 reported Covid patients in the City (with 9 hospitals reporting).

Between February 10 and April 11, the Mission’s average positivity rate was 1.43 percent. During that time Tenderloin had the highest positivity rate with 2.5 percent, while Marina, the City’s latest hotspot had 1.48 percent. Six neighborhoods, including Glen Park, had rates below .5 percent.

Wow!  DPH reports no new cases in Skilled Nursing Facilities since January 26 and no new Covid-related deaths since February 8. Since March 1, there have been 24 reported cases in Single Room Occupancy hotels (SROs) and no new deaths since February 23. 

The 517 figure, recorded on April 9, is considered “unreliable” by DPH. It is the first, and only, death reported in April. On Thursday, DPH reported 513 deaths, 17 of which were recorded in March. Today, there are still only 17 March deaths, despite 3 new March deaths added to the cumulative totals. How does DPH account for this phenomenon? By once again adding 3 new deaths to March 1. Nobody’s perfect. Especially, it seems, the dead.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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3 Comments

  1. Very un-Canadian of me, but I have to say something.

    As a proud Canadian, born and raised in Toronto, Ontario, I wish you had used a Canadian news outlet, especially one like the Canadian Broadcast Corp. Your linked article is so very American in its tone (read: tone deaf).

    Most police forces in Ontario are not going to enforce Ford’s law, announced rapidly after Premier Ford made his announcement.

    Canadians are doing their best given a lack of available vaccine. If you followed the news, you would know that Canada is not enjoying the same access and privilege we have here.

    This is a terrifying time for Canadians. They do not know what to do to stop the surge. There is little vaccine light at the end of this currently very dark tunnel. People who are being vaccinated there are getting one shot, with a second not scheduled for 4 months. Field hospitals are going up. Cancer treatments (including two beloved family members) are being postponed indefinitely.

    Canada had done an incredible job this entire time, until the variants came into play. You never mentioned Canada until something sort-of-American happened. Just when the (pretty terrible) Premier of Ontario announces that police will be enforcing public health law. A very flawed plan to be sure, but there is so much nuance an American article misses, and so much news that came shortly after that wasn’t even mentioned.

    Canada is not the United States. There are fewer and fewer similarities between the two countries, made especially clear during the Trump administration and now this pandemic. Your linked article makes these differences abundantly clear.

    Please try to be kind to Canadians.

  2. Don’t be laying no shade on The Dead. They made some great albums, even if they all kind of sound the same.

  3. As always, thank you so much for this feature, Mission Local. It’s my favorite series you offer. I so appreciate being able to regularly check these statistics here, and to have them broken down so clearly.

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