Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

A new vaccination popup in the Lower (“Inner”) Mission will open onThursday at 18th and Shotwell. Kudos to DPH, Latino Task Force and Laborers Local 261.

So what’s driving the surge in Michigan? The variant? The reopenings? Lack of vaccination? All of the above? None of the above? No one really knows.

A new study published in The Lancet finds that the B117 variant may be more transmissible, but is not associated with higher rates of severe disease, hospitalizations and deaths.

Though cautious, Peter Khoury at Phoenix Data Project has some optimistic forecasts for the City.

And for the first time in over a year, kids headed back to some SF public schools.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 12, DPH reports 58 percent (442,457) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 36 percent (277,084) are completely vaccinated.  On April 12, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 10,999. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Most R Number models show inceasing transmissibility around the state.  Covid-19 R Estimation  maintains its elevated estimate of the San Francisco R  Number at 1.19, and raised its California estimate to 1.11. The ensemble average estimate for San Francisco remains  .8, while estimates for the state range from .76 to 1.09 for an average of .89

Between March 12 and April 10, DPH reported 76 new cases in the Mission for a rate of 12.7 new cases per 10,000 residents.  The Citywide average is 11.5 new cases per 10,000 residents.  The neighborhood with the highest rate and third highest number is the Marina with 66 new cases or 26 new cases per 10,000 residents. Seventeen neighborhoods had less than 20 new cases.

I wrote this yesterday, but it bears repeating. Despite the rising R Number, new case numbers remain flat. For the week ending April 5, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 35 or 4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

Since the beginning of March, average new case numbers have been going down for all groups except Whites.

For the week ending April 9, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 13 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 36 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 9, Covid patients comprised 1.4 percent of all ICU and 1.3 percent of all Acute Care patients. 

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows SFGH with 8 Covid patients and 83 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 51 percent ICU occupancy.

This is the best news of the day. Between April 1 and April 10, based on 4,346 tests, the positivity rate for Latinx residents was 1.77 percent, below 2 for the first time during the pandemic. During that time, Blacks had a 1.36 percent positivity rate, Whites 1.02 percent, Asians .85 percent while Multi-racials and others were negligible.

DPH estimates 50 percent of Mission residents have now received at least one shot. Japantown leads with 61 percent, while Portola and Excelsior both exceed 55 percent. Lakeshore continues to lag with only 27 percent, while in the Marina, a neighborhood with a high rate of new cases, 42 percent of the residents have received at least one shot.

The current San Francisco Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is 1.4 percent. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) based on “true infections” is around .47 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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6 Comments

    1. Hi Sam — 

      Just so you know, the blood clot issues that have spurred this suspension occurred in literally one-in-every-million doses. In fact, less than one-in-a-million. You have double the chance of being struck by lightning than developing blood clots from this vaccine.

      JE

    2. From a data-driven standpoint there is a greater chance of getting a blood clot from traditional birth control pills that are widely available all over the world. You need to keep things in perspective and work on being more factual if you are going to speak. Also, the Janssen vaccine IS NOT experimental, nor are the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

      1. it’s all experimental right now. there’s still a lot we don’t know. the blood clots are only one in a million, except for the ones we don’t know about. what if the blot clot is in your brain and causes silent strokes and you don’t find out what happened until you’ve had a couple of them and the damage is irreversible?

  1. I think you are doing a great job in informing about Covid in the Mission and the city. I read your article daily.
    I notice a minor grammar mistake in the paragraph below the R graph. You wrote “inceasing” and I believe you meant “increasing”.
    Thanks.

  2. Just want to thank you for being my daily guide to this pandemic. I look forward to your posts every day and learn so much about how we are doing. Thank you for taking this on.

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