Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Although we’ve seen big jumps in the death toll over the past couple weeks, given the delays in reporting, the rate of increase over the past two months, most likely due to the recent surge, has dropped considerably. See below.

New data notes a serious decline in nursing home cases and deaths. Though reporters and others give vaccination credit, the fall began well before the vacines would have taken effect.

And while the pandemic may be easing in nursing homes, one of the the main underlying conditions, private equity ownership, still runs rampant (scroll down in article for the full study).

Are cases beginning to plateau across the country, and worldwide? Some see the beginning of a new surge based on the B117 variant.

One of the problems now facing the City is how to vaccinate the homeless population.

So far no one has come up with a way to vaccinate the DBI against corruption.

While waiting for The Vaccination, get a burger, and scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The vaccination pace has picked up. As of February 25, 20 percent (149,646) of San Francisco residents over 16 have received one dose, while  8 percent (57,551) have received two. On February 25, 4941 shots were delivered to San Franciso residents, bringing the seven day rolling average of shots per day to 4251.3.   For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation puts the local number at .7, while the ensemble has it at .73.  Estimates for California’s R Number range between .47 and .79 for an average of .69.

Between January 24 and February 22,  DPH recorded 272 new cases among Mission residents or 45.6 new cases per 10,000 residents.   Over that time, the area bounded by 22nd, Cesar Chavez, Valencia and South Van Ness had 29 new cases or 61.1 new cases per 10,000 residents

The downward trend in SF cases continues. For the week ending February 18, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the City fell to 71, or 8.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Based on the group’s population figures, as of February 23, Latinx residents have had a case rate of 1060 per 10,000 residents, Pacific Islanders 765, Native Americans 697, Blacks 442, Mult-racials 210, Whites 206 Asians 205, and Citywide rate has been 390 per 10,000 residents.

Today’s figures include 2 ICU transfers and 1 Acute Care transfer. For the week ending February 24, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 15 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 32 percent and Acute Care availability was 26 percent. On February 24, DPH reports those with Covid make up 9 percent of ICU patients and  4.2 percent of those in Acute Care. While still reporting 100 percent of required PPE on hand, DPH provides no other information regarding hospital workers, demographic information of those hospitalized or cumulative hospitalization numbers.

Of 112 San Francico Covid patients reported to the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, 81 were being cared for at UCSF, Kaiser and SFGH.   

 Positive tests among Latinx residents has dropped below 6 percent for the first time. Between February 1 and February 23, the positivity rate for Latinx residents was 5.77 percent, Blacks 2.43 percent, Asians 2.2 percent, Mulit-racials 1.43 percent, and Whites 1.33 percent

Will the California 14 day positivity rate drop below 3 percent?  Not long ago, January 8, the rate was 14 percent.

Since January 8, the seven-day rolling average of Covid cases in San Francisco’s nursing homes fell from 15 per day to 0 on February 15. Only 2 deaths in nursing homes have been recorded since January 1, for a total of 104 deaths or about 25 percent of all SF deaths.

Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco

While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj.

From January 1 to Februrary 19, SF Covid deaths have increased 64 percent. Since Februrary 1, the increase has been 6 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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3 Comments

  1. Thank you for paying attention to nursing home patients-they need our attention. In San Francisco, they have been locked in and isolated from indoor visits with their loved ones for almost a year. Due to the absence of families to augment their care, long term care residents have suffered and died in disproportionate numbers even when not infected with Covid. International studies suggest that isolating the most vulnerable from their loved ones should stop now and should never, ever happen again as a result of a public health emergency: family caregivers can be offered the same precautions as staff. Access by long term care residents to designated caregivers and visitors should be encoded legally as a human right that transcends any public health emergency. source: https://ltccovid.org/2021/01/19/safe-visiting-at-care-homes-during-covid-19-a-review-of-international-guidelines-and-emerging-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

  2. One of my dearest friends, aged 67, was forced to convalesce from septicemia at Central Gardens nursing home a couple of years ago and it was a hellhole and a nightmare. She got much worse during her stay there until finally her family just took her home and nursed her themselves after which she recovered. There is no oversight or inspection of these places. They are simply privately owned cash-cows for their owners who get outrageous fees from insurance companies.

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