Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Deaths from the recent surge keep piling up but should abate soon as cases and hospitalizations continue their downward slide. Note the total case numbers reported by DPH oddly went down yesterday but are again on the rise.

UCSF Grand Rounds featured celebritiy doc, Autl Gawande who provided a few rays of pandemic hope, discussed politics and communication as well as the dreaded variants on the horizon.

Yes, the pandemic has revealed the epic flaws in our privatized, decentralized health industry. But will the pandemic make us healthier?

That could be one result thanks to community activists like the Latino Task Force in collaboration with UCSF docs. In and around the Mission, we are beginning to see a welcome change toward community-based health models which can serve both equity and efficiency goals.

Pandemic hope has also been spotted in unlikely places like the neighborhood’s favorite den on iniquity, the ever-maligined Dolores Park.

Not much hope for those who have lost their jobs. And after overseeing the EDD program which has left millions of unemployed Califorians without aid, while swiftly providing over $11 billion to fraudsters, Julie Su has been nominated by the Biden Administration to serve as Deputy Labor Secretary.

Meet Cameron Collier who dreams of selling shoes and check out what’s up this weekend.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

They say it’s due to the weather, but whatever the cause, Operation Snail’s Pace has become almost sclerotic. As of February 18, over 17 percent (132,145) of San Francisco residents over 18 have received one dose, while over  5 percent (41,358) have received two. On February 18, 2699 shots were delivered to San Franciso residents, with a seven day rolling average of shots per day of 3648.9.   For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

The low R Number estimates this week indicate Covid spread around the City is ebbing.  Covid-19 R Estimation figures the number around .7, while the ensemble keeps it around .8.   Estimates for California’s R Number remain around .65.

Between January 17 and February 15,  the Mission recorded 329 new cases or a rate of 55 new cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point had 359 new cases or a rate of 96 new cases per 10,000 residents,  while Tenderloin had a rate of 92 new cases per 10,000 residents, Excelsior had 76, SOMA 69, Outer Mission 57, Western Addition 45, Bernal Heights 40, Potrero Hill 33, Hayes Valley 29, Glen Park 25, Castro 23, Noe Valley 21, Inner Sunset 20 and Presidio Heights 19 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending February 11, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the City continued its downward trend to 104, or 11.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Thus far in February, Latinx residents have 39 percent of the month’s cases, while Asians have have 26 percent, Whites 24 percent, Blacks 7 percent and Muti-racials 2 percent

SF Covid hospitalizations fell below 100 for the first time since November 30. For the week ending February 16, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 20 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 31 percent and Acute Care availability was 26 percent. On February 16, DPH reported 86 available ICU beds and 399 available Acute Care beds with 298 ICU surge beds  and 245 Acute Care surge beds available.

 Thus far in Februrary, the Citywide seven day average positivity rate has fallen over 24 percent.

The California 14 day average positivity rate has fallen below 4 percent for the first time since November 11.

DPH provides little demographic information concerning Covid related deaths. The lastest figures show a decrease in Latinx and White deaths, offset by an increase in Asian and Black deaths.

Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco

While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj.

DPH reports 33 Mission residents have died so far from Covid-related illness.  38 residents of Excelsior have died, 32 from Bayview Hunters Point, 31 from Sunset/Parkside, 26 from Pacific Heights and 21 from the Tenderloin. Most SF neighborhoods have had less than 10 deaths.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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4 Comments

  1. There seems to be a spike in new cases in Portola, relative to other neighborhoods. Does anyone know what’s going on there? Is it more testing now that the Alemany Farmer’s Market testing site is online, or hints of a local outbreak?

  2. The African-American community seems to be doing the best in contagions cases and death. Something good finally. I wonder what is the scientific explanation.

  3. Can you FOIA the amount of spare vaccine per provider? Many states are clawing back vaccine from providers that aren’t doing a good job of administering it. The Times has a good article about that, and how FOIA info is being used to pressure those providers to release the vaccine back to the state.

  4. 11.9 cases per 100,000 _after_ the state adjustment is around 7.14, putting San Francisco very close to moving to the red “substantial” tier based on daily new cases (the city easily meets the test positivity and health equity criteria). Assuming some slight improvement (say, staying below an average of 100 cases/day or ~11.2 unadjusted cases per 100,000), we should be eligible to enter that tier during the week of 8 March.

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