Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Operation Snail’s Pace has provoked a debate among medical professionals as to whether or not to delay a second dose of the vaccine so as to provide more residents with a first dose. UCSF’s Dr. Bob Wachter argues for the delay while the FDA and Dr. Fauci, so far, prefer to stick with the original plan.

We know what scientists and politcians think about the Covid crisis. How about philosophers?

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Between December 2 and December 31, DPH reports 800 new cases among Mission residents  or 13.4 new cases per 1000 residents.  The Citywide rate over that time was 8.7 new cases per 1000 residents. The Mission’s cumulative total as of January 1 was 3033 cases, or 50.9 cases per 1000 residents.  Bayview-Hunters Point has 73.2, Tenderloin 51.9, Western Addition 26.6, Marina 20.1, Pacific Heights 18, Presidio 16.3, Lone Mountain 13.1, Sunset/Parkside 12.2, and Inner Sunset 11.7 total cases per 1000 residents. Even with the current surge San Francisco remains a tale of two cities.

 The number of ICU patients have been in the mid-50s for the past six days. For the week ending January 2, the weekly increase in Covid positive patients  dropped a bit to  18 percent. Despite the surge and the impact on ICU, DPH continues to reports adequate availability. During the week ending January 2,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and for Acute Care beds 31 percent. On January 2, DPH reports SF hospitals had 103 ICU beds and 548 Acute Care beds available.   Beds may be available, but are they staffed?

Estimates of San Francisco’s R Number range from .94 to 1.2 with an average below 1.1. For California, estimates range from .88 to 1.15 with an average below 1.

As predicted, the drop in case numbers over Christmas was something of an illusion. On December 27, the seven-day average of new cases per day rose to 226, or  approximately 26 new cases per 100,000 residents

Through January 1, the Citywide case rate was 28.1 per 1000 residents. For Latinx the rate was 79.2, for Blacks 29.7, for Whites 13.4 and Asians 12.5 per 10000 residents. 

In the month of December, 133,298 tests were recorded. Approximately 55 percent of the tests reportedly come from City sites or City funded initiatives. Latinx residents accounted for 21 percent of the total tests with a positivity rate of 12.4 percent.  No other group had more than 4.1 percent positivity.

Although the Latinx share of cases appears to be falling, it is unclear what this means. There have been recent increases among Whites and Asians, but over the past two months, the number of Unknowns have increased 988 percent.

Though San Francisco currently has a Case Fatality Rate of about .8 percent, those in their 70’s have a CFR of 2.6 percent, while those over 80 have a CFR of approximately 12 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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