Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

With the current rise in cases and positivity rates, it comes as no surprise that San Francisco may soon join the rest of the state in the most restrictive tier. Get ready for a nightly curfew and further closings.

As if the community hasn’t lost enough, a Mission High School coach and a former star athlete were shot and killed Wednesday in Bayview-Hunters Point.

Next year expect a new dialysis clinic to replace a warehouse on 16th street.

Note: Our technical problems with the graphs should be solved. Let us know if you are having problems on mobile.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The current surge continues to hit the Mission hardest. Between October 19 and November 17, the Mission logged 282 more positive Covid cases, bringing the total to 1977, or 33 cases per 1000 residents. Over that period, Bayview Hunters Point recorded 205, Excelsior 150, Sunselt/Parkside 116, and Tenderloin 104 new cases.

The model we use continues to estimate the San Francisco R number around 1.4, which suggests the current surge shows no sign of slowing. The same model estimates California’s R number at a very upsetting 1.5, which is one of the lower state estimates in the country,.

When you look at the graph beginning October 8, you see why the City wants to curtail social circulation. For the week ending November 12, the seven-day average number of daily cases was 98 or 11.2 cases per 100,000 residents.

The expected surge in hospitalizations may be commencing. For the week ending November 18, the rate of change in Covid positive patients was 14 percent. During that week, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds dropped to 32 percent and for Acute Care beds 23 percent.

Men make up 54.2 percent of the cases, women 45.2 percent. Trans men and women make up .1 percent and .5 percent are unknown.

San Francisco first reached 158 deaths on November 12. Assume the figure is higher now, and with the current case surge, will continue to rise.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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