Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

What does it mean to “follow the data”? Lydia explores this question with respect to how DPH is addressing the virus in the Latinx population.

Yesterday UCSF’s Grand Rounds discussed “The Vaccine”. Rather than the actual science or medical dimensions of a vaccine, most of the discussion focused on the social and political issues a vaccine will pose once approved.

Politics aside, the distribution of a vaccine, or vaccines, is  “mind-bogglingly complex”.

Hopefully Mohammed Nuru won’t be in charge. Though he did “get things done.”

Elsewhere in the City, new D.A. Chesa Boudin has created an “Innocence Commission” the first of its kind in the country. The Police Officers Association probably hopes the new commission will exonerate the cops from all wrong doing. Though they really don’t need anything new.

Scroll down for today’s numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

Today DPH reports 1519 total cases in the Mission, or 25.5 cases per 1000. A new popup UCSF/Latino Task Force testing site is coming to 16th and Mission, a block close to many SRO hotels. SROs are tailor-made to spread the virus and it’s past time the City addressed this dangerous situation. Hopefully the effort will not result in another research study, that’s here today and gone tomorrow.

After dropping for a few days, the seven-day average number of daily cases for the week ending September 11 ticked up to 55.  Can’t seem to get out of the red zone.

It seems the unhoused are not paying off Nuru and friends. Yesterday DPW took down a homeless encampment on 20th and Treat. The cops were out all day at 16th and Dolores and this morning while tents had disappeared from the median, they were back on the sidewalks. Hmmm.

The model we use shows San Francisco’s R number climbing up to .97. Though still below 1, the number represents one of the higher rates of transmission in the state. Remember it’s an estimate with a lot of uncertainty factored in. An ensemble of other models shows SF around .9.

After dropping to 71 patients on September 15, the next day hospitalizations rose back into the 80s. As of September 16, availability of ICU beds dropped to 98 while 367 Acute Care beds remained available.

Five new deaths in one day looks like a big jump. Thanks to the new way DPH reports deaths, it’s not a jump at all. We now find out the 91 deaths we’ve been reporting for days was actually the number over two weeks ago. Maybe. To follow the Covid numbers in SF, one has to follow the poet John Keats and learn to live with uncertainty.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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  1. “After dropping for a few days, the seven-day average number of daily cases for the week ending September 11 ticked up to 55. Can’t seem to get out of the red zone.”

    SF has met the criteria for the orange zone for the past week (as calculated on Monday). Due to the high rate of testing in SF (greater than 2x the state median), the case count is adjusted downward using a 0.6x multiplier. So 55 actual cases a day converts to an adjusted case rate of ~3.7 cases per 100000. We need to stay below 60 actual cases a day, or ~4.0 adjusted cases per 100000, for another week in order to leave the red/enter the orange zone.

    (It also helps that the state is using population projections from the before times [January 2020], which don’t take into account the exodus from the city during the shelter-in-place order, making it easier to show a lower case rate.)

    1. The colored zone reference in the Mission Local daily Covid data dumps is the SF DPH Key Heath Indicators for case counts They predate the CA DPH Blueprint for Covid Safer Economy colored Tiers. The SF DPH zones go from green to red, the CA DPH Tiers go from yellow to purple, and the number of cases for the zones and Tiers are also different. Last but not least, SF DPH does not have the derating for number of tests relative to CA state average.

      CA DPH assessment uses a 7 day lag. The most recent on 9/14 is based on data for 7 days ending 9/5. That is 9 days. The assessments are apparently done on Monday for week ending two Saturdays ago. So SF would need to keep at the current lower level for at least 2 more weeks for the CA DPH Orange Tier.

      The coming week is 2 weeks after Labor Day. Some prognostications are for an increase in cases due to holiday social gatherings. We shall see…

  2. I wish contract tracing people would report more on WHERE people got it.

    I’m still bewildered if people get it at restaurant, work, at home, etc… And where is that contact tracing app that uses Google/Apple Exposure API that all countries around the world are using?

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