Good morning Mission. And welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump on Covid-19.

Sorry for the delay. Technical glitches.

Yesterday Gov. Gav said the City would “likely” be removed from the state’s monitoring list. ” Not” said the state’s publich health department a few hours later.  The state keeps track of how the virus is moving in each county as an indicator of whether or not to open schools and certain businesses, like restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. Gyms, by the way, are fighting for their survival.

In any case, would the City mandate more re-opening in the midst of Covid, fires and smoke?  Given the strain covid already puts on our public health system, not to mention healthcare workers, another shelter-in-place order would seem far more likely. For those interested in what the state monitors, go to the state’s County Data Monitor pages. Interpreting those pages and the data presented should keep you occupied while the Bay Area burns.

Or better yet, catch up on the eight-year old lawsuit, exoneree Maurice Caldwell has had against the San Francisco Police Department.

Meanwhile,  today’s numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

Yesterday, 19 cases were added to the Mission, raising the total now to 1186. Though the Mission has the highest number of cases, per 10,000 residents it trails Bayview-Hunters Point, Visitacion Valley and the Tenderloin.  As usual, lagging far behind, with less than 10 cases, the slackers in Seacliff.

The weekly average of number of cases per day for the week ending August 14 was 11 per 100,000 residents. A case rate of less than 100 per 100,000 residents for 14 days is the state’s benchmark. That works out to an average of about 7 per day. SF, currently listed at 138.5 on the monitoring chart, has not had a average count equal to 7 cases per day per 100,000 residents since June 25.

If you look at our chart, and go back a week, you will see that the seven day average for the week ending August 14 was approximately 96 cases per day. To reach the state’s goal, that number would have to go down to 63 and stay there for two weeks.

Four fewer Acute Care patients and 1 less in ICU account for  123 Covid confirmed and suspected patients as of August 19. The number of available beds has risen to 87  in ICU  and dropped to 288 in Acute Care. DPH claims that as of Wednesday, it had a 19 percent availablity in ICU, while the state monitoring system says it only had 15.9 percent available. Maybe the difference can be understood because DPH reports available ICU beds while the state requires at least 20 percent of “staffed” ICU beds to be available.

Positivity rate is another metric the State uses for monitoring. SF has been doing consistently well in this regard, recording a seven day rolling average of greater than 4,000 tests per day and a 3 percent positivity rate for the week ending August 14.

R number modeling continues to show SF and California holding steady around 1. It is not clear whether the those doing the modelling have taken into account the evacuations and the smoke.

Of the 72 deaths, 66 had at least one underlying condition and 42 had been exposed to the virus through community contact, as opposed to contact with a known case.

DPH still does not report demographic information on who has been hospitalized and for how long.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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