Photo by Community Contributor

Good morning Mission. And welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.

Testing again. I know it sounds like a broken record, but without widespread testing with 24 to 48 hour analysis and reporting, there is no way to adequately control the virus spread at this point short of strict lockdown, which some have already advised. On Thursday, at UCSF Grand Rounds, Harvard  prof. Michael Mina (no, foodies, not that Michael Mina) discussed a way of getting around the nation’s current testing snafu with cheap, easy and “less sensivitive” tests.  The Atlantic has a piece reviewing the strategy envisioned by Mina and others entitled The Plan That Could Give Us Our Lives Back.

It is a long read that reviews the ongoing predicament with current testing “infrastructure” and the alternatives.  Basically the idea is what might be lost in accuracy, can be made up with speed (how very American!).  At least two drawbacks to the alternatives are spelled out: 1) no one knows how people will respond to the new tests, and 2) any alternative requires swift and intelligent federal action.

Scroll down for today’s the numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

The Mission posted another 25 cases bringing the total case number to 1149. 

The seven-day average of daily cases for the week ending August 8 was 89, more or less where we’ve been since the end of July. Though “flattening”, this figure works out to an average of 10.3 per 100,000 residents, well within the red zone, where the number has been since June 22.

For the week ending August 8, the seven-day rolling average positivity rate also remained stable, just below 3 percent. DPH reports an average of 3785 tests per day over that week. The California rate is currently estimated to be 6.7 percent.

With 6 fewer Acute Care patients, the number of hospitalizations for August 13 fell to 110. However, hospitalizations have been rising recently. DPH reports the rate of change in COVID-19 hospitalizations for the week ending August 13 to be 18 percent, just below the high alert red zone.  Counter to what you might expect, DPH says this does not mean a further diminishing of hospital capacity. Up from August 12, 84 ICU beds, and 351 Acute Care beds were available on August 13.

Remember in July when the R numbers in other Bay Area Counties were going down while being high in SF? How that situation has changed! Similar to yesterday,  6 estimates gives SF a range from 1.06 to .92 suggesting more of the same on the horizon.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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