Good morning Mission. And welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.
Yesterday was another disturbing day as the virus still appears to have the upper hand. After Gov. Newsom proclaimed the virus was “stabilizing” in the state, the virus responded with a record number of positive cases reported in a single day. Though average positivity rate over 14 days remained somewhat stable, the seven-day average ticked up to 7.6%. Videos of Newsom show his hair is graying.
In San Francisco, we had two new deaths. It was the first time with more than one daily death since May. The local positivity rate remained below our local average of 3%.
As the New York Times reported national hospital bed availability reaching capacity, SF hospitalization figures show a mixed bag, still increasing, but somewhat slower.
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HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
The Mission District reported 17 new cases, for a total of 827, the most in the City.
Yesterday I made a couple of observations on the Infection to Fatality Rate (IFR) here in San Francisco. Much to my surprise, these observations attracted attention including a couple disparaging comments from a prominent Epidemiologist (not a San Franciscan). As you all know, I am not an Epidemiologist, prominent or otherwise. My methodology was to divide the number of deaths by the number of cases reported by the DPH. I admit long division is not my strong suit, but apparently my math was OK. I then included an average estimate of “unreported cases,” based on a new report from the CDC.
“If true for SF,” I said, “it would bring the rate down to around the IFR of the seasonal flu.” The prominent Epidemiolist stated this was false (or as he put it FALSE). His objections were two fold: 1) IFR for COVID “already” includes “unreported” cases and 2) the IFR for the flu was “far lower” than the .1% figure I had suggested. To the best of my knowledge, DPH does not report “unreported” cases. As for the .1% figure for the flu, I got that from Dr. Anthony Fauci (you may have heard of him). On March 11, Dr. Fauci testified before Congress, saying “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent.” Now I am aware that there are many flus, and many seasons, but to the best of my knowledge, Dr. Fauci has not retracted this statement, nor has he been accused of lying to Congress.
To readers who may disagree, please comment here or send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org. Twitter, I don’t monitor so there is always a time lag.
Two new confirmed, and two new suspected Covid patients entered ICU giving us 122 hospitalized including transfers as of July 21. Hospitalizations continued to increase in San Francisco, but the rate of increase has slowed down a bit. The rate of weekly change for Covid positive patients has declined to 16% for the week ending July 21, falling into the moderate alert zone (orange) for the first time in a couple weeks. Acute Care and ICU beds available remain above the 15% DPH target.
No big changes in our local R number.
Thirty-one of the 55 deaths were people over 80, 49 with at least one underlying conditon as of July 22. Almost twice as many were men. Fifty-seven percent of the cases reported came from “community contact”, 37% from contact with a known case. How the other 6% got infected, no one knows.