Covid-19 Tracker: The virus won’t go quietly

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Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Having been encouraged by the drop in hospitalizations a couple days ago, are we discouraged to see them rise again? This virus never seems particularly happy when leaving center stage, but these days it resembles an over-tired toddler who is not willing to go to bed.

From the beginning, the covid crisis was at least as much a political-economic problem as it was a medical-scientific one. So what have we learned from the global response to the covid crisis?

Expect to hear various public health and elected officials boosting an annual covid booster as the answer to any and all of your covid anxieties.

On the good news front, a new study shows The Vaccine reduces the chances of developing the symptoms that are collectively called “long covid”.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Sept. 1, DPH reports about 79 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and more than 72 percent are completely vaccinated. On Sept. 1, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day hit 486, its lowest point since July 20. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Aug. 29, DPH reports there were 110 hospitalizations, 75 in acute care, 35 in the ICU. Most of the recent high numbers and fluctuation come from those in Acute Care. The latest update from DPH says 75 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 14.5 per 1,000 cases compared to 76.6 per 1,000 cases for those not fully vaccinated) . According to the CDC, for the week ending Sept 1, covid patients accounted for 5.69 percent of hospital beds (no change from previous week) and 13.03 percent of ICU beds (-1.62 from previous week ). 

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 20 covid patients and 76 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 20 covid patients and 89 percent ICU occupancy. Of 118 reported covid patients, 55 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

Between June 29 and Aug. 28, DPH reported 775 new cases among Mission residents (or 132 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 905 new cases in Bayview Hunters Point (239 new cases per 10,000 residents). During this period, four other neighborhoods had more than 400 new cases: Sunset Parkside, Excelsior, SOMA and the Castro, which still has the second highest neighborhood rate at 186 per 10,000 residents. 

For the week ending Aug. 28, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the city was 145 new cases, or approximately 16.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 896,000 population).

We may be “all in this together,” but obviously that doesn’t mean some aren’t more in it than others. Relative to their SF residential population, DPH reports Pacific Islanders have a case rate of 2,069 (per 10,000 residents); Latinxs, 1,290; Native Americans 936; Blacks, 841; Whites, 341 and Asians, 281 (per 10,000 residents).

As infection rates and hospitalizations continue cloudy, some brightness from the citywide positivity rate, which dropped below 3 percent for the first time since July 9.

Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to ascertain. Now DPH reports seven more in August, bringing the covid-related death toll to 591. DPH provides no demographic data for monthly deaths, but reports that, as of Aug. 30, six of all covid-related deaths were among those fully vaccinated.

Covid R Estimation revised its recent estimates for the San Francisco R Number, placing it again over 1 at  1.11, and its estimate for the California R number to 1.09. All models in the ensemble continue to estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average of .80, while the average California R Number is .92.

As of Aug. 28, DPH reports nursing homes (“skilled nursing facilities”) had 13 August infections and two August covid-related deaths. In Single Room Occupancy Hotels (SROs), DPH has recorded 127 August infections and four August covid-related deaths.