Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
Covid Tracker will continue with full graphs and minimum commentary unless circumstances warrant otherwise.
Call it a milestone. Yeterday was the first day since last March SFGH did not have a single Covid patient.
Unless you’re totally wasted from the masking and school debates, check out yesterday’s UCSF Grand Rounds, and reflections on a school year with no school.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. SFDPH has yet to update vaccination numbers for the weekend. As of May 20, DPH reports Ā 77 percentĀ (599,377) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and Ā 64 percentĀ (489,797) are completely vaccinated.Ā On May 20, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day wasĀ 6,888. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit ourĀ Vaccination Page.
Covid-19 R Estimation kept its estimate for the San Francisco R number at .70, while maintaining its estimate for California at .86. All models in theĀ ensembleĀ continue to show San Francisco and California below 1, with a San Francisco average estimate ofĀ .75, while California’s average estimate remained .8.
Between April 17 and May 16, DPH reportsĀ 65Ā new cases in the Mission orĀ 10.9 new cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point remains the City’s hottest spot with 80 new cases over the past month or 21.4 new cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate was 7.54 new cases per 10,000 residents.
For the week ending May 13, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City wasĀ 17Ā new cases, orĀ 2.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.
4So far in May, Latinx residents have had 72 positive tests, Whites 68, Blacks 55, Asians 51, Mullti-racials 5, Pacific Islander 4 and Native Americans 2.
For the week ending May 17, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fellĀ 22Ā percent.Ā During that week,Ā the seven-day average availability of ICU beds wasĀ 34 percentĀ and Acute Care availability wasĀ 25 percent. On May 17, DPH reports Covid patients comprisedĀ 2.5 percentĀ of ICU occupancy andĀ .87 percentĀ of Acute Care occupancy and the City hadĀ 100 percentĀ ICU andĀ 98 percentĀ Acute Care surge capacity.
On May 20, there were 0 Covid patients at SFGH.
Between 5/1 and 5/15, Blacks had a positivity rate of 1.65 percent, Latinx 1.42 percent, White, .42 percent, Asians .42 percent with Multi-racials, Pacific Islanders and Native Americans negligible.
So far in May, those 30-39 have the most cases (60) while those 80 and above have fewer cases (4) than those 0-4 (6). Unfortunately, DPH does not release demographics for recent deaths.
Covid-related death numbers are anythng but static. According to DPH today, the 541st death was reported on May 6, and is the only Covid-related SF death in May.
The COVID infection numbers seem to be getting better each day. Unfortunately, vaccination rates also seem to be plateauing at around 76% (below herd immunity levels). Does anyone know what progress is being made to narrow the gap, like extended vaccination hours and mobile vaccination efforts? I’m not hearing any of this on the local news. A number of neighborhoods are still below 60% for residents with at least one-dose vaccination.
Herd immunity threshold is likely below 76% vaccinated (completed vaccination, not single dose). If R = 5, the herd immunity threshold is 1- 1/R= 80%. And given that 4% of our population has tested positive for COVID-19, with prior infection likely two or three times as high, we are probably very close to already there if not already there. Remember, herd immunity doesn’t mean no new cases; there will be overshoot and new cases, they just won’t, on average, spread to more than one person, so cases will slowly decline.
Agreed.
Seriously – there needs to be an all out assault on this thing in the Bayview and Mission. Teams. Knocking door to door. J&J. One shot and done. We are the wealthiest city on the planet. No excuse. Kill this thing NOW while we have a boot on its neck!
Treat this like Polio or Smallpox.
How about incentives before a more intrusive approach?
https://time.com/6046238/covid-19-vaccine-incentives/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/upshot/vaccine-incentive-experiment.html
I like the idea of working with local businesses, for example, restaurants to provide coupons for a complimentary meal. Coupons to be given out at vaccination site along with the shot. It would be advertising for the businesses, and would help increase the percentage of people vaccinated. Win-win.
(BTW, I’m glad you used “boot” instead of “knee” in your post. š )