The District 10 race began as a relatively cordial and even complimentary campaign: Three candidates with minor policy divisions sat side by side at forums and, at first, praised the others’ work.
They rarely disagreed on major issues affecting the surrounding community, including housing, the Navy’s cleanup of the Hunters Point Shipyard and economic development in Bayview’s commercial corridor.
That changed on Sept. 5 when cryptocurrency billionaire Chris Larsen donated $500,000 to a political action committee backing frontrunner Theo Ellington.
In a district that has been chronically underfunded, news of the gift was jarring. Suddenly, billionaires, who have been putting their thumbs on the scale citywide, were weighing in on the race to represent some of San Francisco’s lowest-income neighborhoods: Bayview-Hunters Point and Sunnydale.
And, just as suddenly, the issue became front and center for Ellington’s opponents, Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter, the former CEO of Young Community Developers; and J.R. Eppler, a small business attorney steeped in the more affluent Potrero Hill political scene.
Brookter and Eppler announced a joint “anti-billionaire” campaign this month, promoting their decision to team up with a ranked-choice strategy to defeat Ellington.
To be sure, it won’t be easy. Ellington has received by far the most funding and endorsements, including the coveted endorsement of Mayor Daniel Lurie, whose political touch was gold during the last supervisor races in June.
And, as one political consultant pointed out, the donation gives Ellington’s backers a lot of money to pay a team of door-to-door canvassers.
What’s more, Larsen has added more money to the pot. Twenty-seven days after his $500,000 donation, on Sept. 29, he dropped $40,000 more.
Larsen, in a text message to Mission Local, said that the extra $40,000 was to cover the expenses of the team managing the PAC.
The sizable sum has injected a toxic note into the race, hardening alliances and bringing insinuations that the district, or at least its front-runner, is up for sale. Emotions are running so strong that the contribution may have backfired, damaging Ellington’s chances.
Little is known about Larsen’s motives, but political consultants have speculated that tech’s interest in the district as more companies flock to the Dogpatch could be a major factor.
Ellington said the fallout from the $540,000 contribution, to a third party he does not control, has made the contribution “more trouble than it’s worth.”
Brookter and Eppler have adopted “District 10 can’t be bought” as a social media slogan. A volunteer for Brookter’s campaign even scrawled the phrase on an apron in big, red letters and posted multiple videos of them wearing the apron in Bayview and in front of City Hall.
Natalie Gee, an aide for the termed-out incumbent, Supervisor Shamann Walton, who is supporting Brookter, has also posted multiple videos to social media condemning the contribution.
Tracy Gallardo, a legislative aide for Walton, calls the race a “free-for-all.”
“I really have no idea what will happen,” Gallardo said.
Will a ranked-choice, anti-billionaire strategy work?
With the support of former mayor and Potrero Hill resident Art Agnos, who appeared in a social-media video posted to each of the candidates’ platforms, the two opponents are encouraging their supporters to do a “1-2” strategy, and put the other second on the ranked-choice ballot.
The move will likely benefit Brookter most. Though he has raised slightly less than Eppler — and more than $300,000 less than Ellington’s nearly $488,000 in direct donations and public financing — he has amassed a larger progressive following, and has Walton’s endorsement.
Ellington, for his part, has tried to separate himself from those funding him. “I respect Mayor Agnos. But I have to correct the record. He’s talking about outside interests who have nothing to do with and do not speak for me or my campaign. What speaks for me is my record.”
The phenomenon of underdog candidates teaming up in an “anybody but the favorite” campaign is par for the course with ranked-choice voting.
Jane Kim and Mark Leno nearly toppled London Breed in the 2018 mayoral race. In Oakland in 2010, Jean Quan was elected mayor after running a successful joint campaign with Rebecca Kaplan to deny the presumed frontrunner, Don Perata.
But Todd David, a longtime San Francisco moderate political consultant who donated to Ellington, said the strategy, common among progressive politicians, has rarely worked.
“That has been a losing strategy,” David said.
Still, the massive funding Larsen put behind Ellington does not guarantee a win, David said. “It’s helpful, but it still has to be spent well,” he explained. “Then again, you would 1,000 times rather have the money than not.”
Former Mayor Willie Brown agreed. Ellington “wouldn’t be better off” without the big donation, said Brown, who endorsed both Ellington and Brookter. “He’d just have fewer things to explain.”
Others disagree. Aaron Peskin, a former supervisor and ardent supporter of Brookter, argued that the contribution hurts Ellington’s chances, and will dog him even if elected. “They’re doing this guy no favors. That’s going to walk around with him for the rest of his political life,” Peskin said.
Ellington, a registered city lobbyist and director of the Ruth Williams Opera House, ran for the seat once before in 2018 at age 29, but ultimately lost to Walton. In the weeks since Larsen’s gift, he’s attempted to distance himself from the donor.
“We all agree that District 10 can’t be bought,” said Ellington, who argued that his policy decisions would not be influenced by the contribution.
Larsen is the leading donor to San Francisco’s controversial Flock police surveillance technology, and helped establish the San Francisco Police Department’s Real-Time Investigation Center, which uses Flock and drones to track potential suspects.
Data from Flock cameras has been shared with immigration agents, has reportedly been abused by the police and has raised concerns over residents’ privacy. It’s unclear how this association will play out in the district.
Before the donation, Ellington was the only candidate among the three who expressed even lukewarm support for the technology.
However, since the donation, he has made it clear that he would not vote to renew the city’s contract with Flock without strict retention limits.
Critics have also raised concerns over a billionaire’s interest in a local election in a historically Black neighborhood that, for many, has become one of the last affordable regions in San Francisco.
Last month, those concerns were amplified when Mayor Lurie’s brother, real estate investor Alexander Lurie, predicted in a podcast interview that Bayview-Hunters Point was likely to change the most in 10 years, referring to the neighborhoods as a “sleeper” investment opportunity.
Ellington acknowledged the concerns. “It’s my job to provide the certainty to the residents who live here that they won’t be forgotten about. They won’t be forced out.”
“I understand people’s frustration. Because I live here, too. I’m born here, so I get it,” he added.
At the same time, Ellington said, some voters expressed excitement over a donor investing a large sum of money in the future of the neighborhood. Others, whom Ellington met door-knocking across the district, had not heard of the contribution at all.
Many voters may still be undecided
Each of the three front-running candidates told Mission Local that what they hear about the most on the campaign trail are bread-and-butter neighborhood issues: A stop sign, faster public transit, a speed bump residents have been requesting for eight years or simply a representative who’ll pick up the phone when they call.
Many voters, they said, remain undecided. How many will actually vote is also unclear.
Voter turnout has historically been low in District 10. In 2018, when Walton first ran and won, just 58% of the registered voters cast ballots, compared to 78% citywide.
The district’s lowest-income neighborhoods, Bayview-Hunters Point and Visitacion Valley, experienced the lowest voter turnout that year. In Potrero Hill, where income levels are significantly higher, roughly 77% of voters showed up to the polls.
Chinese residents — now some 42% of the voting age population, compared to 20% for Black, 21% white and 15% Latino voters — have become a target of the campaigns.
Ellington says his campaign is “intensifying” door-knocking and outreach for monolingual Chinese voters. In May, Ellington, congressional candidate Sen. Scott Wiener and other local politicians participated in a Cantonese opera before a large crowd in Chinatown.
Candidates without deep pockets may be having difficulty reaching monolingual enclaves of the district that could play a key role in this election.
In a video posted to social media, Widmaer “Wid” Jean, Brookter’s apron-wearing volunteer, made a passionate plea to recruit Cantonese and Spanish-speaking “freedom fighters” for phone banking and door-knocking.
Agnos, who is backing Brookter and Eppler, said he, too, doesn’t know who will win. But, when it comes to Larsen’s gift, he said, “if enough of the constituents in District 10, who I know well, knew about this, they would not tolerate this kind of extraordinary spending.”
“Chinese residents — now some 42 percent of the voting age population, compared to 20 percent for Black, 21 percent white and 15 percent Latino voters”
It is usually assumed that D10 is “the black district” and that it should therefore have a black supervisor. It always has done in my time here. But the cited demographic stats do not back that up at all.
But of course, the poster children of the failed status quo, Peskin, Preston and one-termer Agnos, all support the failed status quo candidates, “Boomer Nimby” Eppler and more-of-the-same “Shaman Walton, Part Two” Brookter.
Theo Ellington for D10 Supervisor, hands down!
Chris Larsen’s $540,000 contribution is only part of the story. What about the money Theo Ellington has personally accepted from prominent technology investors and San Francisco real-estate interests?
His direct contributors include Garry Tan, the Y Combinator CEO and GrowSF board member who apologized after suggesting seven San Francisco supervisors should “die slow”; Ron Conway, one of Silicon Valley’s most influential political donors; and members of the Sangiacomo family, whose extensive rental-property holdings and history of battles over rent control are well documented.
These are contributions Ellington accepted directly, not independent expenditures he can distance himself from.
Geography raises another question. A September analysis by PublicPowers found that only 2% of itemized contributions associated with Ellington’s campaign and its principal supporting PAC came from ZIP codes entirely within District 10. The analysis combines both committees, so the geographic breakdown of his direct donors remains an important unanswered question.
District 10 faces consequential decisions involving billions in real-estate development, affordable housing, infrastructure, and community benefits. Voters deserve scrutiny of the tech, real-estate, and billionaire money supporting this candidacy—not just Chris Larsen’s contribution.
“he would not vote to renew the city’s contract with Flock without strict retention limits.” Right. Has anyone asked the POA what constitutes “strict retention limits”?
Telling you now: Ellington will vote to renew the Flock contract in February 2027. He gives different answers depending on the room he’s in. He’s compromised and always has been, well before the Larsen $. Gary Tan, who is a big Ellington supporter, is also a major financial investor in Flock, which was originally funded by Y Combinator, Tan’s company!
Ethics filings show that 90% of Theo’s campaign donors live outside District 10, and many of his donors are from tech, AI, venture capital, real estate, and other corporate and wealthy interests.