Once more unto the breach, San Francisco.

Check back for updates on the eight propositions before voters, including the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin, and primaries for the House of Representatives and State Assembly.

Boudin recall | Propositions | Primaries | Turnout | Live updates

Recall of Chesa Boudin

YES
NO
122,423 (55.03%)
100,034

Updated June 14, 4 p.m. from Department of Elections data. These figures are essentially complete but not yet certified.

Propositions

A

$400 million Muni bond to improve transport infrastructure.

YES
NO
138,540
74,249

B

Changes to Building Inspection Commission appointments.

YES
NO
129,060
79,130

C

New limits placed on recalls of elected officials.

YES
NO
89,604
123,527

D

Establish Office of Victim and Witness Rights.

YES
NO
125,626
87,010

E

Limit donations solicited by public officials (behested payments).

YES
NO
143,925
63,445

F

More oversight of San Francisco garbage company Recology.

YES
NO
143,948
59,713

G

Large employers required to give emergency health leave.

YES
NO
137,641
75,987

H

Recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin.

YES
NO
122,423
100,034

Updated June 14, 4 p.m. from Department of Elections data. All propositions require a simple majority to pass except Proposition A, which requires a two-thirds majority. These figures are preliminary and will be updated.

Primaries

State Assembly, District 17

Ballots castPercentage
Matt Haney (Dem)69,33663.25%
David Campos (Dem)*27,23324.84%
Bill Shireman (Rep)13,05411.91%

*Although Campos’ name is on the ballot, he has not campaigned against Haney during this election. Updated June 14, 4 p.m. from Department of Elections data. These figures are essentially complete but not yet certified.

State Assembly, District 19

Ballots castPercentage
Phil Ting (Dem)71,67179.94%
Karsten Weide (Rep)17,98220.06%

Updated June 14, 4 p.m. from Department of Elections data. These figures are essentially complete but not yet certified.

House of Representatives, District 11

Ballots castPercentage
Nancy Pelosi (Dem)133,63171.66%
Jeffrey Phillips (Dem)3,5871.92%
Shahid Buttar (Dem)19,43110.42%
Bianca Von Krieg (Dem)2,4971.34%
Eve Del Castello (Rep)7,3093.92%
John Dennis (Rep)20,01810.74%

Updated June 14, 4 p.m. from Department of Elections data. These figures are essentially complete but not yet certified.

More results

For state and federal election results, check the California election results page.

Turnout

Overall turnout: 228,915 (46.2%)

Updated June 14, 4 p.m. from Department of Elections data. These figures are essentially complete but not yet certified.

Boudin recall | Propositions | Primaries | Turnout | Live updates

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Live updates

Tuesday, June 7, 10:45 p.m.:

We have our third and final batch of votes, slightly ahead of schedule. The turnout is now up to 128,000, which is about 25.8 percent.

DA Chesa Boudin is now being recalled by almost exactly a 60-40 split. Late votes are trending for him, but still not enough to potentially reach the single-digit margin the more optimistic pessimists in his camp had hoped for, let alone to stave off the recall.

And the Big Muni bond continues to tumble (as we’ve noted all night, these are not necessarily unrelated developments). It now has 63.3 percent of the vote, but requires two-thirds. Its percentage drops with each new batch.

All other races appear set.

This will be the last update of the night from the Department of Elections. The next report will be issued at 4 p.m. on Thursday. The vote must be certified by July, and will likely be done by the end of June.

Big thanks today to Lydia Chávez, Eleni Balakrishnan, Annika Hom, Yujie Zhou, Will Jarrett and William Jenkins for their in-the-field coverage.

Good night, and good luck. —Joe Eskenazi

Polling place sign outside of a polling station on Guerrero.
On Guerrero Street. Photo by Walter Mackins.

Tuesday, June 7, 10 p.m.:

The second batch of votes is out tonight, and little has changed.

Some 121,000 votes are in, which is about 24.3 percent turnout. DA Chesa Boudin is still in a bad place, trailing by a 60.5-39.5 clip, and about 24,000 votes.

And Prop. A, the big Muni bond, is going backwards. It now has 63.5 percent of the vote, and it requires two-thirds.

Prop. C, which would limit recalls and force appointees to be place-holders, is losing handily. Everything else is winning handily.

Shahid Buttar is still nearly 4,000 votes behind Republican John Dennis to decide who will face Rep. Nancy Pelosi in the runoff. And city voters, who all but certainly gave Boudin the boot tonight, have not similarly embraced AG candidate Anne Marie Schubert and gubernatorial hopeful Michael Shellenberger, who are receiving single-digit support. More in an hour and, again, check out those graphics. —Joe Eskenazi

Party favors at the Yes on H gathering. Photo by Eleni Balakrishnan

Tuesday, June 7: 8:45ish p.m.:

Early results are in! Click above to check the individual propositions, maps, etc.

As the polls closed at 8 p.m., pro-recall supporters made their way into the already crowded Del Mar bar in the Marina. It’s a swanky place, notes Mission Local’s Eleni Balakrishnan, with swing seats at the tables and gold flamingos behind the bar. Air horns and ear plugs sat ready on a table while bartenders mixed drinks. Cheers and congratulations were exchanged, and speculation ran wild on just how badly Chesa Boudin would take it on the chin tonight.

The answer: A likely knockout.

With 109,000 votes in the preliminary round (22 percent), Boudin trailed 61 percent to 39 percent. More critically, he trails by just under 24,000 votes. In an extreme low-turnout election, there simply may not be enough outstanding votes for Boudin to mount a comeback, even if later-arriving ballots skew his way.

Meanwhile, at Del Mar, it’s Valhalla in the Marina. Balakrishnan reports that tequila shots are being disseminated throughout the bar. “Who wants more shots?” a voice roars out. There are many takers.

Boudin, reports William Jenkins, showed up late for his election-night party at The Ramp. By that point the writing was on the wall, though his supporters were defiant, chanting, “We won’t stop.”

Boudin took the crushing loss in stride, chanting along with the crowd.

“We are not afraid. Justice is on our side. Our cause is righteous and we have already won,” he told the crowd.”

Boudin, incidentally, made his speech while perched atop a beer keg.

That wasn’t the case across town, where recall supporters were, literally, crowd-surfing. Recall spokeswoman Andrea Shorter said, “I’ve been a community advocate for ending mass incarceration, alternatives to incarceration, diversion … ” But, in Boudin’s case, she said it was necessary to “force-correct.”

Counties are mandated to certify today’s results by July. San Francisco Elections Department boss John Arntz says he expects to do so before the end of June. So that’s how about much time Boudin has before his successor will be named by Mayor London Breed.

Chesa Boudin stands a top a beer keg and addresses a teary-eyed crowd at The Ramp. Photo by William Jenkins.

Meanwhile, earlier today Mission Local noted that a good performance from Prop. H, fueled by voters fed up by perceptions of sloth, incompetence, filth and crime, would hamstring Prop. A, the $400 million Muni bond.

That may, indeed, be happening. Prop. A requires a two-thirds majority, and it’s not there. It has 64 percent of the vote at this time. A bond that every vestige of San Francisco government supports, and with the mayor’s ownership, is losing. No mayor has botched an infrastructure bond in a generation, and this would be a black eye for Breed.

“It’s reasonable to make that up,” Muni director Jeffrey Tumlin tells Annika Hom at the Prop. A party at The Beehive on Valencia. Maybe, but Tumlin’s reaction is a bit like seeing your bus is going to arrive in two minutes, and then seeing it knocked back to three, and then canceled. In short: Don’t get your hopes up. Maybe the bus will come — and maybe it won’t.

Recall leader Mary Jung is all smiles. Photo by Eleni Balakrishnan,

Prop. B, which would reform the corruption-plagued Department of Building Inspection’s oversight commission, is cruising with 59 percent of the vote.

Prop. C, which would greatly alter when recalls can be enacted and would force whomever presumptively is tapped to replace Boudin to be a place-holder, is failing by a 60-40 split. That’s intuitive.

Prop. D, which creates an office of victims and witness rights, is also cruising at 62 percent.

Prop. E, which would limit department heads and elected officials from hitting up individuals or entities with pending contracts for donations, is netting nearly two-thirds of the vote. Same goes for Prop. F, which would alter the method embattled refuse collector Recology’s rates are set.

Prop. G, which would require some companies to provide emergency leave for workers, is up 60-40 percent.

In candidate races, Rep. Nancy Pelosi has 73 percent of the vote in Congressional District 11, with perennial Republican challenger John Dennis in second, with 11.7 percent, and Shahid Buttar at 8 percent. Top two go to the November runoff. In District 15, Kevin Mullin and David Canepa seem destined to face off again in November.

Finally, complicating any notions that San Franciscans tonight unambiguously gave a shot in the arm to law-and-order, punitive policies of cuff-’em-and-stuff-’em, Sacramento DA Anne Marie Schubert received not quite 7 percent of the vote for Attorney General. And Michael Shellenberger, challenging Gavin Newsom for governor, was more like a nothingburger at 4 percent.

Next round drops at 9:45 p.m. Do look over our graphics and maps. They’re lovely. —Joe Eskenazi

Pro-recall forces wait for the big moment in the Marina.

Tuesday, June 7: 3:30 p.m.:

Your pre-emptive East Coast Chesa Boudin hot take:

San Francisco is a mid-sized North American city. It is almost exactly the same size as Columbus, Ohio. It’s about 15 percent larger than Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. 

Those two cities, for good or ill, don’t captivate the national imagination. But this one does. You don’t hear about “Columbus values” or a “Winnipeg liberal,” but “San Francisco” does serve as a modifier. “San Francisco” is a metonym. Things happen everywhere, but in San Francisco, Things Matter. 

As such, in 2014, four Smart cars were tipped over in San Francisco in the course of a week and it became fodder for international news stories. And that was odd: People flip over Smart cars enough there’s even a term for it: “Smart tipping.” All it takes are large men, small cars, too much alcohol and not enough brainpower; San Francisco’s hilly streets probably help, too.  

But those stories searched for deeper meanings behind all this. Because in San Francisco, Things Matter. Surely, this Means Something.

In the present day, veteran city operatives backed by oodles of cash from extremely wealthy funders and their PAC are attempting to tip over San Francisco’s progressive district attorney. 

Despite the fervent behavior on display in the weeks leading up to the election, voters writ large are not worked up: Turnout is going to be paltry. Low turnout is not necessarily a bad thing for DA Chesa Boudin, and he’ll need big wins in Districts 5, 6, 8 and 9 to offset likely heavy losses in Districts 2, 4, and 7. It’s not impossible, but it is improbable; every poll predicts San Francisco will go DA-tipping. It is hard to foresee Boudin staving off this recall. 

It is also hard to foresee knowledgeable and grounded reactions from out-of-town publications, not when two of the big ones have already labeled one of this city’s most established little Roger Stones a liberal, or centered a story around the worldview of a clownish GOP mayoral contender it mistakenly credited for qualifying the recall. 

Yes, San Francisco (likely) dumping its progressive DA Means Something. But it doesn’t mean everything, and it doesn’t necessarily validate the pre-existing worldviews of Substack opinion-havers for whom San Francisco serves as an allegory, concept and modifier more than as a city. 

San Franciscans’ (likely) rejection of Boudin Means Something, and says something about the state of criminal justice reform and liberalism. But, in the end, it says more about San Francisco. More on that in a moment.

Photo of Chesa Boudin by Julian Mark; photo illustration by Abraham Rodriguez

To start with, any claim that San Francisco voters rejected Boudin’s policies or ideals would first require San Franciscans to have accepted them. There is no indication this ever occurred: Boudin won with a plurality of first-place votes in a razor-thin ranked-choice contest in a low-turnout election aided, in no small part, by the mayor’s heavy-handed appointment of his main rival to the vacant DA post. That was crass: An operative in a rival campaign told me at the time “if Chesa wins, this is why.” 

So, that happened. And, as we wrote in 2019, it was unclear if San Francisco voters were enthralled by Boudin’s ideas, or simply rewarded the best-run campaign. 

Boudin triumphed with 36 percent of first-place votes in an election that only featured 42 percent turnout. But he governed as if he had a mandate. He never had a coalition comprising 50+1 percent of the electorate, and cementing one was not a goal. And that left Boudin vulnerable to a recall — and, once one made the ballot aided by bottomless wells of cash distributed via a veritable matryoshka of political action committees, Boudin was behind the eight ball. There are no opponents to run against — Larry Elder will not become DA if Boudin loses — and this DA never had majority support. 

To reject Boudin’s ideas, voters would also have to, you know, reject his ideas. For what it’s worth, Boudin’s ideas are polling better than Boudin. Multiple surveys reveal pluralities or majorities of San Francisco voters support many of Boudin’s signature liberal policies. Despite the persistent drumbeat of out-of-control crime sold by the recall campaign, crime is more rampant in municipalities overseen by traditional, law-and-order DAs. One of them, Sacramento DA Anne Marie Schubert, is on the ballot, running for Attorney General. 

Let’s see how many votes she gets tonight vs. AG Rob Bonta. Bet it ain’t a lot. 

So that’s something to keep an eye on. It’s a challenge to claim San Franciscans are wholly rejecting the concept of liberal prosecutors in favor of a more traditional cuff-‘em-and-stuff-‘em approach if they vote in great numbers for Bonta over Schubert — even if they do (likely) dump Boudin. 

A woman stands at a ballot booth in a Mission District garage
A woman casts her vote in a 22nd and York garage on June 7, 2022. Photo by Eleni Balakrishnan

So, what does that mean? It could mean a lot of things. Is San Francisco a template for other cities or states with vulnerable prosecutors? Possibly, but the bar to qualify a recall in San Francisco, signatures from 10 percent of the electorate, is about as low as it is anywhere, making this city an outlier. And if the pro-recall forces end up spending $8 million to $10 million to win a majority of votes in an election where only 130,000 or so people bother to return their ballots, the cost-per-vote will be prohibitive. 

Rather, the introspection here should be local as much or more than global. San Francisco voters like to think of themselves as liberal — but will (likely) be swayed by a fear-based campaign not so different than the Willie Horton ads Lee Atwater cooked up in 1988. Symposiums could be taught regarding how to convince voters that the district attorney is the problem in a city where the police arrest rate is historically low, and has been for years

San Franciscans are not wholly rejecting reform, but it’s hard to foresee even our “liberal” voters reacting poorly to a future DA announcing he or she is going to aggressively prosecute and incarcerate dope dealers, serial car thieves, etc. And that tracks: When it comes to bringing our own bags to the grocery store or marching in the streets to protest abortion crackdowns in Alabama, San Francisco is solidly blue. But, when it comes to less clear-cut and closer-to-home issues like criminal justice reform, San Francisco voters indicate they like the concept of them, but, it seems, only so long as they remain conceptual.

Would-be District Attorneys (from left) Leif Dautch, Nancy Tung, Chesa Boudin, and Suzy Loftus made their case Wednesday night at a Latino Democratic Club forum. May 2019 photo by Julian Mark.

If you were to look at the professed interests of voters in Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s district on this handy dandy feature, you’ll find that police reform is a low priority. Perhaps that would’ve been different in the summer of George Floyd two years ago, but San Francisco has moved on; the Black Lives Matter posters are sun-bleached and neglected in the windows of the city’s $2 million homes. 

San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who is African American, never really defunded the police — but now she doesn’t even have to bother with any budgeting sleight-of-hand to even pretend we’re doing so. Many of the issues that most bother San Francisco voters are actually under the aegis of the mayor, not the DA — but it’s the DA who will (likely) be recalled for them. He has served as a most effective human shield, and when he’s (likely) gone, the mayor will name his replacement. 

This city’s voters have moved on because they can afford to, physically and metaphysically. Many San Franciscans now seem to simultaneously desire the vibrancy of a big city, but expect the safety and security of the suburban towns where they grew up. There is, simply, not a strong base of African American voters here who would form a natural constituency to elect, and re-elect, a reform DA, as there is elsewhere. In Philadelphia, where DA Larry Krasner won re-election with nearly 70 percent of the vote, African Americans make up some 40 percent of the population. That’s around eight times the proportion of San Francisco. 

For these voters, the effects of aggressive, punitive policing and prosecution is no theory. That’s their families that have been broken up, their relatives who have been incarcerated. For generations, the success of a DA was measured on how long he could lock people up, and those people tended to be disproportionately minorities.  

In San Francisco, the last Black neighborhood is the county jail. And that’s the way things are now. Before we (likely) recall the progressive DA. 

And this, again, is the city whose very name is a stand-in for liberal values. And, when you think about it, that Means Something. —Joe Eskenazi

Tuesday, June 7: 2:30 p.m.

100 poll workers call in sick

It’s not just voters who seem to have low turnout today: So do poll workers. 

At 1199 Bush Street, Lower Nob Hill, only two out of the four poll workers who were supposed to be there showed up. Jeremy Long and David, both first-time poll workers, were left on their own in this basement-turned-balloting place. 

Two blocks away at 1082 Post Street, Tara Anderson, the poll inspector, and 17-year-old Jonathan Stephens were in a similar situation. After learning that they would be the only two supporting the site, Anderson called in her boyfriend, who works at Trader Joe’s, to help them set up in the early morning.

According to an email sent by John Arntz, the Director of the San Francisco Department of Elections,, nearly 5 percent of the poll workers, around 100 out of the 2,100 recruited workers, have canceled since yesterday, mostly due to Covid-19-related issues. 

“I don’t think there is a ‘normal’  number, but this is a higher than usual total,” Arntz wrote. “We had a standby group of nearly 100 people in City Hall who we assigned this morning, and who we transported to polling places.”

The site at 1082 Post St. is among those that have been assigned standby staff. With the extra help, “we got it done,” said Anderson. “Polls were open at 7. No one came to vote for another hour and a half, but they could have.” As of 10:30 a.m., her site had received approximately 20 voters.

For Anderson, a fourth-time poll worker, this “uncommon” staffing shortage seems the result of both the pandemic and the expansion in the number of polling places. Her speculation was confirmed by data released by the Department of Elections. With a total of 588 this time, there are about 200 more voting places than in April, as the latter one was just an AD-17 election that did not include the West Side.

Among the few voters who showed up to cast a ballot, most were not in favor of tossing out District Attorney Chesa Boudin. In fact, Abra White, 59, who voted with the company of her puppy, was the only recall proponent among the voters Mission Local talked to. White noted the crimes in her neighborhood: “Have you seen the streets in this block? There are a lot of crimes. I’m a manager of a building, and I’ve had nothing but crime and break-ins in this neighborhood.”

Also, Boudin’s manner in explaining his policy agenda to the public struck her as “arrogant; he came out very arrogantly and said what his plan was. ‘I’m going to do it this way. You’re gonna have to do it my way or the highway,’” White said. 

Among the voters who would like to keep Boudin in his position, John David Tong, 53, found the recall a waste of time and resources;. Matt Calidonna, 29, thought it risky to dismiss an elected official without knowing the replacement. Kyle DeWolfe, 59, was “very No on H” because “the people that are against Boudin are the Police Officers Association and the Republican Party.”

Not seeing any other voters showing up within the 10 minutes he was there, DeWolfe blurted out, “I hope people get up off their asses and come and vote. Not enough people vote.” —Yujie Zhou

A blown up US Eagle at a polling place in San Francisco
Precinct 7538. 141 Scott Street. Photo by Lydia Chávez

Tuesday, June 7: 12 noon

Despite overall low voter turnout, a couple of  precincts in the southeast Mission had a slow trickle of voters casting their ballots in person or dropping off their sealed vote-by-mail envelopes. 

At Bryant Elementary School, near 25th and Utah streets, poll workers had only seen five voters before 9 a.m. Poll worker Laura Buback, who worked during both the 2020 presidential primary and election, said even that day she saw fewer than 100 voters. Buback said the vast majority of people cast their votes by mail. 

Over the course of the hour this reporter hung around and cast her own ballot at precinct 7006, only one in four Mission voters said they voted against the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin. Regardless of how they voted, residents were uncertain about how the rest of the city was thinking, and anticipated a tight race. 

“People here are really square,” said Roxana G., who said the recall was the primary issue that brought her out to vote this morning. “It’s a bunch of phony white people who are performative, and when push comes to shove, they vote for more cops because their car got broken into.” 

Sure enough, car and home break-ins came up as reasons for other voters choosing to vote out Boudin. 

Carlos M. said he was conflicted about the recall, noting that he supports progressive policies and was uncomfortable about the Republican financing behind it. He also wasn’t sure whether to blame the police or the DA for property crime and lack of police followup. 

“It’s difficult for an outsider like us to perceive,” Carlos said. But, at the end of the day, he voted Boudin out, noting that his car was broken into four times and his house once. 

Trevor Smith, another voter who supported the recall, expressed similar concerns. “It’s hard to decipher what’s actually true or not,” he said. Smith didn’t think the recall would be successful, but said the process was a good way to keep elected officials on their toes. 

Smith left parts of his ballot blank if he didn’t feel knowledgeable about the measure, but apparently felt certain enough on Prop. H: Initial allegations of Boudin not prosecuting and criminals being let off ultimately swayed him to vote for the recall. 

“It’s easy to point at the DA if things are not going well,” said one thirtysomething voter at a garage polling place near 22nd and York streets. He understood voters’ concerns, but said he wasn’t sure recalling was the solution. —Eleni Balakrishnan

A mural near 20th and Shotwell was completed in late 2020, as election season loomed. Photo by Annika Hom.

Tuesday, June 7: 11:55 a.m.:

Looking a bit like abandoned public telephone booths, all of the machines lined up inside the polling places I visited this morning stood empty; victims of the mail-in ballot.   

So, finding voters at any precinct in San Francisco is difficult, but there remains this need to talk to voters on Election Day. The four precincts around Duboce Triangle and Lower Haight generally have a high voter turnout, albeit by mail, so if voters were to be found, a few might be there. 

This morning, all of the four voters I spoke with voted no on Proposition H to recall District Attorney Chesa Boudin. The $400 million Muni bond, Proposition A, also had their resounding support. Of course, resounding support from four voters does not indicate much. Or does it?  

Precinct 7538: 141 Scott St. garage

The rush of voting before work that used to be part of the morning cycle on Election Day no longer exists. At 9 a.m. or so, only two in-person voters had arrived. Two ballots had been dropped off. (Ed. note: Only two-in-person voters had showed up at 9 a.m. at my polling place in the Excelsior; four ballots had been dropped off; one of the three poll workers had, understandably, fallen asleep JE). 

Kevin, accompanied by his young daughter, who picked out a book from a free lending box nearby, would be the third to drop off his ballot. He voted against the recall. “Even though I am not exactly thrilled with Boudin,” he said. “The Republicans paid for it.”

Precinct 7539: 628 Haight St. garage

Eight voters had walked in to vote, and 15-ish had dropped off their ballots this morning, said Kyle, one of the poll workers. 

Anna was on her way in to drop off her ballot. She, too, voted no on H because of outside support. And, she objected to the undemocratic nature of recalls. “The recall forced him to spend all his time on the recall,” she said. 

In the recall of school board members in February, 55 percent in these two precincts voted in favor of recalling Allison Collins, but 51 percent would have kept Gabriela Lopez in office and 52 percent would have stayed with Faauuga Moliga.

In the September runoff,  the two precincts voted 60/40 in favor of Matt Haney.  

Precinct 7541: 508 Haight St., a cafe 

Some 20 voters had dropped off their ballots,, and two had voted in person. 

William, a 74-year-old retired English teacher who has lived in the neighborhood since 1985, talked about police reform. He voted against the recall. Boudin is the first DA to prosecute police, a group he respected, but felt needed to be kept in check.

“We all want secure and safe places,” he said. Police are part of that equation, he said.  “At the same time, you have to call out bad policing when it occurs, and police have to own up to that.”

Precinct 7542: John Muir Elementary School, 380 Webster St.

Again, more drop-offs than the six who had voted in person. 

Jordi was on his way to deliver his sealed ballot. “No on H and Yes on Muni”  he said. “I support Chesa.”

In the February school board recall these two precincts voted by 60 percent to oust Collins, 52 percent to oust Lopez. Some 50 percent would have kept Moliga. Again, the two precincts split 60-40 to favor Matt Haney over David Campos in the runoff. —Lydia Chávez

DA Chesa Boudin on May 18, 2022.

Tuesday, June 7: 5 a.m.
Today is election day, and the evidence at hand indicates that most San Franciscans couldn’t give a damn. 

As of June 6 (a day of some gravitas in the annals of representative democracy), some 103,000 San Franciscans had returned their ballot, 21 percent of the electorate. That lags behind election eve totals in February, 2022 (24 percent), and April, 2022 (22 percent). A day prior to the Gubernatorial recall election in September, 2021, 49 percent of the ballots were in — some 247,000 of them. 

So, whatever happens today, it’ll be decided by a sliver of the population. That makes interpreting these results precarious. And the same goes for predicting them. 

The issue first and foremost in most observers’ minds is at the tail end of the ballot: Proposition H, the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin. Poll after poll shows him far under water. Even the polling put out by his own campaign in mid-May revealed him to be 10 points down, and this polling was meant to counter even grimmer numbers from external sources.

Can Boudin win? Let’s put it this way: If you make that bet, be sure to get good odds.

But Boudin can certainly beat the spread. Paltry turnout is bad for democracy, but, on the whole, it’s good for Boudin, whose campaign polling has him doing best with high-information, high-propensity voters. In other words: Boudin’s likeliest voters are the voters who are likeliest to vote.

Low turnout benefits the DA even more when voter returns are especially lacking in the city’s conservative west side — which, at the moment, they are. 

For Boudin to have a chance, he’ll have to win big — real big — in Districts 5, 6, 8 and 9 to counterbalance the areas where he figures to lose handily. It also figures Boudin will do better with late and day-of voters, because voters dead-set on seeing him off returned their ballots long ago. But this will be a small portion of a low-turnout election; there simply may not be enough late and day-of voters to make up for a big deficit among early mail voters.

The deeper meanings behind San Franciscans opting to jettison Boudin (or not) will be a subject of intense national debate. But, closer to home, Prop. H could figure to cause a ripple effect up and down the San Francisco ballot.

At the top of that ballot is Prop. A, a $400 million Muni infrastructure bond championed by Mayor London Breed. No mayor has lost an infrastructure bond for a generation, so there is no small amount of mayoral prestige riding on this, as well as a boat-tram’s load of capital costs.

It’s hard to predict voter behavior, but, intuitively, the better Prop. H does, the worse Prop. A will do. Voters who are unhappy and believe the city is on the wrong trajectory, and who are up in arms about crime and filth and dysfunction, do not figure to be the most sympathetic audience regarding a handout to San Francisco’s chronically beleaguered and challenged (and filthy and dysfunctional) municipal transportation system.

In short: Efforts to drive the most likely Prop. H supporters to the polls could also have the effect of driving the least likely Prop. A supporters to the polls. Also not helping matters: Muni officials made the staggering decision to use the misbegotten debacle of the Central Subway as the backdrop to their ask for hundreds of millions of more dollars from city taxpayers.

It additionally figures that voters in support of recalling the district attorney will not look kindly upon Prop. C, which would limit the circumstances in which elected officials can be recalled. This proposition might have fared better in September, when San Franciscans emphatically voted to retain Gov. Newsom.

Finally, a statewide ripple effect could emanate from Southern California, where billionaire Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso has spent scores of millions of dollars to fund his run vs. Karen Bass. An outsize number of Southern California voters could hamstring Northern California candidates for statewide office: Namely, aspiring controller Malia Cohen and North Bay Assemblyman Marc Levine, who is running for insurance commissioner.

The first batch of results, all from mail-in ballots, will drop on Tuesday around 8:45 p.m. Return here early and often for on-the-spot reporting and analysis from the entire Mission Local crew, plus maps and data from Will Jarrett.

Stats on turnout are available to look at now, and will be updated throughout the day.

Finally, it goes without saying, don’t forget to vote. Joe Eskenazi

Tuesday, June 7: 5 a.m.
Today is your final opportunity to vote in the June 7 election. So get out and do your democratic duty! You can find a list of polling stations, and their wait times, on the San Francisco Department of Elections website.

For detailed information about each race and measure on the ballot, check out the department’s ‘What’s on the ballot?’ page and download the San Francisco and California voter guides. Will Jarrett

Boudin recall | Propositions | Primaries | Turnout | Live updates

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Managing Editor/Columnist. Joe was born in San Francisco, raised in the Bay Area, and attended U.C. Berkeley. He never left.

“Your humble narrator” was a writer and columnist for SF Weekly from 2007 to 2015, and a senior editor at San Francisco Magazine from 2015 to 2017. You may also have read his work in the Guardian (U.S. and U.K.); San Francisco Public Press; San Francisco Chronicle; San Francisco Examiner; Dallas Morning News; and elsewhere.

He resides in the Excelsior with his wife and three (!) kids, 4.3 miles from his birthplace and 5,474 from hers.

The Northern California branch of the Society of Professional Journalists named Eskenazi the 2019 Journalist of the Year.

Founder/Executive Editor. I’ve been a Mission resident since 1998 and a professor emeritus at Berkeley’s J-school since 2019 when I retired. I got my start in newspapers at the Albuquerque Tribune in the city where I was born and raised. Like many local news outlets, The Tribune no longer exists. I left daily newspapers after working at The New York Times for the business, foreign and city desks. Lucky for all of us, it is still there.

As an old friend once pointed out, local has long been in my bones. My Master’s Project at Columbia, later published in New York Magazine, was on New York City’s experiment in community boards.

Right now I'm trying to figure out how you make that long-held interest in local news sustainable. The answer continues to elude me.

REPORTER. Annika Hom is our inequality reporter through our partnership with Report for America. Annika was born and raised in the Bay Area. She previously interned at SF Weekly and the Boston Globe where she focused on local news and immigration. She is a proud Chinese and Filipina American. She has a twin brother that (contrary to soap opera tropes) is not evil.

Follow her on Twitter at @AnnikaHom.

REPORTER. Eleni is our reporter focused on policing in San Francisco. She first moved to the city on a whim over eight years ago, and the Mission has become her home. Follow her on Twitter @miss_elenius.

DATA REPORTER. Will was born in the UK and studied English at Oxford University. After a few years in publishing, he absconded to the USA where he studied data journalism in New York. Will has strong views on healthcare, the environment, and the Oxford comma.

REPORTER. Yujie Zhou is our newest reporter and came on as an intern after graduating from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism. She is a full-time staff reporter as part of the Report for America program that helps put young journalists in newsrooms. Before falling in love with the Mission, Yujie covered New York City, studied politics through the “street clashes” in Hong Kong, and earned a wine-tasting certificate in two days. She’s proud to be a bilingual journalist. Follow her on Twitter @Yujie_ZZ.

William Jenkins

Intern Reporter. William moved to the Bay Area from Nashville to pursue a Masters in Journalism from UC Berkeley. He's covered police reform in Oakland and also investigates correctional officer misconduct at the Investigative Reporting Program. You'll mostly see him behind a camera. Follow him on Twitter @WilliamJenk_

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20 Comments

  1. Campers,
    What did a dying Texas Ranger Captain (played by Robert Duval) say to his lifetime crime-fighting buddy (played by Tommie Lee Jones)

    ” It’s been some party ain’t it, Woodrow ?? ”

    That’s from ‘Lonesome Dove’.

    For the past year I carried a two sided sign for several hundred miles.

    I won yesterday …

    Zarate will be carried out of California on a stretcher.

    But, yesterday he ‘won’.

    I lost the first Campos bid.

    What if David wins today ?

    Does that mean we’ll have a guy in Sacramento (Haney) we just voted out today who can’t even be on November ballot except as a write-in ??

    Hey, take it from a guy with 70 years working for candidates.

    The more you put into an election the more you get out.

    Go Warriors !!

  2. Joe Eskenazi has a lot of credibility, but I’m tired already of Boudin supporters using him to insult the city’s population. I’m not wealthy or a tech person or a Republican, and I voted to recall Boudin. Why? I want to see criminals prosecuted. It’s really that simple. Stop making it seem like that’s evil.

    Boudin let a guy out of jail who beat a taxi driver to death with a metal bar, pleading it down to “involuntary manslaughter.” That is simply not who I want as DA. Stop calling me names because I want to see justice pursued.

    1. THANK YOU. You said that even better than I could have.

      This idea that we have to choose between holding CRIMINALS accountable and pursuing criminal justice reforms is ridiculous. It’s not a contradiction to believe that crime needs to have consequences, AND that we can do a better job of pursuing equitable justice, rehabilitating rather than just warehousing people, and addressing root causes of crime. (But I’m afraid that the latter is not in the purview of the District Attorney.)

      If the consequences of crime are negligible, we get more crime, and that’s the situation we find ourselves in today. Let’s hope the next DA is more pragmatic.

  3. There’s so much gaslighting and wishful thinking on the pro-Boudin/anti-recall side it’s amazing. The consistent narrative that the entire recall is being driven solely by out of town Republican bogeymen and that all Yes on H supporters are too stupid to think for themselves. How difficult is it to understand that a large part of the electorate wants him out, even if that same part of the electorate shares 90%+ of their political beliefs with his supporters?

    The fact that Boudin’s best defense is to point to the recall donors’ precious donations rather than defending his actions (and heaven forbid, issuing any mea culpas) speaks to the weakness of his messaging and position.

    As posted in another article, I think Boudin needs to honestly and humbly answer some questions for the AAPI community:

    Ask him why Dwayne Grayson was not charged with a hate crime for beating an elderly Chinese man while calling him racial slurs.

    Ask him why his office intentionally abrogated Rong Xin Liao’s civil rights by denying him translation services.

    Ask him why a “temper tantrum” was an acceptable excuse to murder Vicha Ratanapakdee.

    Ask him why he will take questions from every reporter EXCEPT Dion Lim when she challenges white privilege.

    Ask him why his office sat for months on evidence showing Kit Lam’s civil rights had been violated by a white Progressive extremist.

    Ask him why neither he nor anyone else from his office were present at the 25 January 2022 Lunar New Year junket in which it was revealed hate crimes in the City targeting the AAPI community went up 500% under his tenure.

    Finally, ask him why his best and only defense is to point to the Republican bogeyman rather than defending and taking responsibility for his own actions and record. (That alone belies the desperation of his campaign.)

    The truth is that Chesa is no less a racist than Stephen Miller, but one without the latter’s gumption to publicly own up to his vile beliefs. Chesa embodies the danger of the horseshoe theory, and is no less a shill for the very racists he claims to fight than was Trump. He has co-opted the language of social and restorative justice to disenfranchise and endanger the Asian American community, and his actions in the DA’s office belie his bias against any Asian Americans with who don’t serve his political ends.

    1. Boudin created the largest victim services department than any other DA previously. Also bumped up Chinese bilingual people, when there had only been ONE person able to communicate in Chinese with monolingual San Franciscans. He’s appeared on Dion Lim’s show and she repeatedly completely ignored everything he was saying to her? Hate crimes against our AAPI neighbors have been off the hook across the nation since Trump targeted and bullied. Recallers spent over $7 million during a special election with low turn out for a reason.

  4. Joe,

    Please stop doing the old ‘CYA’ he’s ‘LIKELY’ to lose in paranthesis.

    It’s 8:28pm at Chez Dawg and no results yet.

    Boudin wins by 213 votes and I take credit which is only just.

    h.

  5. 61% to 39% to toss out Boudin! Finally the city has realized the “progressives” have no clothes !

  6. Fact: one in ten San Franciscans voted YES on the Recall. All that proves is angry voters supported it. Ain’t no mandate. Now what? Exactly what policies and actions will make SF “safer” now that angry mobs have toppled this statue?

    1. That’s one way of looking at it. Using that lens: It’s not like he was lifted into the job by majority vote either. Easy come, easy go.

      1. Recalls are expensive. Elections are too. Four elections this year. Wasteful. What is actually accomplished? The Mayor gets to install another one of her appointees. This will ultimately have a chilling effect on voters in that it will create more apathy and jaundice when it comes to getting voters to vote. Google the history of Recalls in CA. Recalls began as a way of breaking the monopoly that railroads and robber barons had on government and elected office holders. This Recall accomplishes little. How exactly am I and my +80 year old grandma safer now?

        1. @Greeny. Politically, DA Boudin was behind the eight ball right from the go. Things would have looked differently if he had had a bona fide mandate from the electorate. We can start strengthening elected officials and deter recalls by ending ranked choice voting and establish a proper majority vote.

  7. Wonderful news!! The overwhelming majority of San Franciscans in virtually every single neighborhood (including every heavily minority neighborhood) voted to recall the most incompetent, corrupt, bigoted, counterproductive, and anti-victim person to hold office in this City (except for David Campos).

    1. Super low turn out for this election. One out of ten registered voters in SF voted in support of the recall. That’s the data. One out of ten REGISTERED VOTERS. A paltry showing.

  8. Well here we are, …. the crime has stopped, the break-ins at Alamo Square Park eliminated and the drug dealing and homelessness has vanished. SO glad that recall did what was promised!

    BTW – Has anyone been following along on the recall and mayoral nomination of the SFUSD Board of Ed Commissioners? What’s super-great is that the 3 new members are weighing in on the agenda items and issues and *surprise!* matching the votes and opinions of the 3 ousted BOE members around 92% of the time!! SO glad that recall happened. Man, SF just keeps getting better and better I can WAIT for the next couple recalls.

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