Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations and recorded infections are up from last week, while positivity rates have dipped and R Number models have dropped back below 1. Wastewater monitoring from the state and Stanford shows the virus falling in nearby sewers.

I am told by a reader that the “Stanford” model was developed by the person who pioneered the field. For more information on the model and wastewater monitoring, check out this video.

It has been confirmed that the City will defund the community hubs that have provided testing, vaccination, food and isolation support for low-income families, immigrants and others without access to health care. No reason has been given, and no update has been forthcoming on what the City plans to do to prepare for the future.

If this had been the NBA Finals, the virus would have won in a rout. As we suspected during the first omicron wave, the City has no idea how to slow down transmission, and zero interest in trying. As in the first six months of the pandemic, the City has once again turned its back on the most vulnerable.

And the national media still refers to San Francisco as “progressive.”

To be fair, the City is not alone. For those who thought the covid crisis might shock the oligarchy into building a public health infrastructure or providing life-saving universal health care, think again.

Even medical conferences among the “experts” have become superspreader events.

Here’s the latest from UCSF’s Bob Wachter, commenting on the current situation in SF and the threat of long covid.

New omicron variants are taking hold in the country, and they’re either here or coming soon. Not much is known about them or what to expect, but they do seem to be the variants with the most immune escape since the pandemic began.

Not to worry. No need for the City to do testing, right? As long as you can afford them, you can get rapid at-home tests. Here’s the latest on problems with at-home rapid tests. And don’t forget to check out the fake tests now on the market.

And, no need to provide isolation support. People who test positive will happily stay at home, right? Yes, if they are working remotely anyway.

If Breed hasn’t given it all to the cops yet, she might want to consider using some of the covid relief funds to improve ventilation in schools. Rather than waiting, here are some easy steps schools, teachers, and parents can take to assess the ventilation in rooms.

Let’s conclude this week with a look at sources of covid “misinformation.” The New York Times published a report from David Leonhardt claiming the covid-related death rate for whites has recently exceeded the rates for Blacks, Latinxs and Asian Americans. His piece has been widely criticized and his methodology debunked. Has the Times acknowledged the error and corrected the report? Does anyone seriously question what the Times would have said had the report come from Fox News?

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

Over the past week, hospitalizations rose 5.3 percent (representing 4 more patients). On June 11, DPH reports there were 79 covid hospitalizations, or about 9 covid hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). ICU patients are back in double figures. The California Department of Public Health currently reports 85 covid patients in SF hospitals with 13 patients in ICU.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 15 covid patients and 9 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 6 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available. Of 101 reported covid patients in the City, 43 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 92 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration or Laguna Honda). The California DPH currently reports 106 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Between April 11 and June 10, DPH recorded 1369 new infections among Mission residents (an increase of 11 percent from last week) or 233 new infections per 10,000 residents. During that period, Mission Bay continued with the highest rate at 379 new infections per 10,000 residents. Of 38 neighborhoods, 6 had rates above 300 per 10,000 residents, with 5 in the east and southeast sectors of the City. Treasure Island continued with the lowest rate and Lakeshore, the only neighborhood in the City with less than 50 percent of its population vaccinated, continued to have the second lowest rate.

DPH reports on June 7, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City rose to 461 or approximately 52.7 new infections per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population), representing a 2.7 percent rise from last week. According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 48.8 per 100,000 “fully vaccinated” residents and 111 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents. It is unclear whether “fully vaccinated” means 2, 3 or 4 doses. According to the New York Times, the 7-day average number on June 7 was 516. The latest report from the Times says the 7-day average on June 14 was 498, a 4 percent decrese over the past two weeks. As noted above wastewater monitoring shows less virus in local sewers.

In May Asians recorded 4,2023 new infections or 30.4 percent of the month’s cases; Whites 3,472 infections or 25.1 percent; Latinxs 1,625 infections or 11.8 percent; Blacks 488 infections or 3.5 percent; Multi-racials 101 infections or .7 percent; Pacific Islanders 79 infections or .6 percent; and Native Americans had 37 recorded infections in May or .3 percent of the May totals. Preliminary June numbers won’t be available until next week.

The 7-day rolling Citywide average positivity rate (12.3 percent) dropped 4 percent during the past week, while average daily testing dropped approximately 3 percent. Over the past two monts, DPH reports the Mission had a positivity rate of 9.5 percent. Portola had the highest rate at 12.5 percent, and Noe Valley had the lowest rate at 7.8 percent.

Vaccination rates in SF show virtually no change from last week with the number of residents who have received at least one dose rising .08 percent and the number of residents receiving a booster rising .44 percent. DPH reports 70 percent of Mission residents have received at least one booster. Approximately 79 percent of SF Whites, 79 percent of Asians, 63 percent of Blacks, 60 percent of Latinxs, 60 percent of Native Americans, and 58 percent of SF Pacific Islanders have received at least one booster.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Two new covid-related deaths have been reported, bringing the total since the beginning of the year to 197. DPH won’t say how many were vaccinated. Nor does it provide information on the race/ethnicity or socio-economic status of those who have recently died. According to DPH “COVID-19 deaths are suspected to be associated with COVID-19. This means COVID-19 is listed as a cause of death or significant condition on the death certificate.” Using a phrase like “suspected to be associated with” indicates the difficulty in determining a covid death. The fog gets denser as DPH reports, incredibly as it has for months, only 21 of the deaths are known to have had no underlying conditions, or comorbidities. DPH only supplies cumulative demographic numbers on deaths.

The lack of reliable infection number data makes R Number estimates very uncertain. Covid R Estimation on June 7 estimated the San Francisco R Number at .93 while its estimate for the California R Number on June 12 was 1.02. The ensemble, as of June 5, estimated the San Francisco R Number at .94 and its California R Number at .98. Note: Two models show SF under 1.

In May, DPH recorded 54 infections and 3 covid-related deaths in nursing homes (“Skilled Nursing Facilities”). In SROs (“Single Room Occupancy hotels”), DPH recorded 269 infections and 0 deaths.

In May, 51.4 percent of the recorded infections were among Females, and 46.7 percent were among Males. Only 4 infections were recorded among Trans Females and Trans Males.

In May, DPH recorded 155 infections among those unhoused. Thirteen unhoused residents have died covid-related deaths. DPH does not report monthly deaths among those unhoused.

Follow Us

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

Join the Conversation

5 Comments

Please keep your comments short and civil. We will zap comments that fail to adhere to these short and very easy-to-follow rules.

Your email address will not be published.

  1. The good news which you overlook is, people aren’t dying of covid anymore. There has been a bump in cases starting in March, but deaths haven’t followed. There have been no deaths in the last twelve days – zero. I don’t know why this is happening, but it’s worth noticing!

  2. I know this page already has a ton of external data on it, but it would be quite helpful were to you include the latest wastewater data. There does seem to be a general decline trend in what I see at the Oceanside site, but it’s been a real wave, quite up and down where the peaks while declining are only declining at a very slow rate.

    1. So many external sources this page keeps crashing on a mobile device, and now that I’m on desktop, here too.

      For all the thought and sourcing in this article, the author seems to profoundly misunderstand the endemic stage in which we find ourselves.

  3. RE: positivity rates have dipped and R Number models dropped back below 1. Wastewater monitoring from the state and Stanford shows the virus falling in nearby sewers.

    By how much / how fast are virus levels going down? I recall Dr. Ghandi said surge could be over by end of June but the news article was not clear by what “over” meant. E.g., will virus levels be low enough that DPH recommendation to wear masks indoors will be rescinded?

    Looking at SFDPH case average from peak of 509 at 3 weeks ago to latest case average of 461, the case average has been dropping by only -0.74% per day. For comparison, the case average drop in first 3 weeks after Omicron BA.1 surge peak in January was -5.6% per day or almost 8 times faster. The case average got down to around 80 in mid-March. If the trend in last 3 weeks were to continue and assuming no uptick from new variants, it would take around 230 days for case level to drop from latest SFDPH case average of 461 back down to mid-March levels.

    Dr. Wachter’s criteria for “letting guard down” is <10-20 cases/100K/day. For SF, that would be <88-176 cases/day. Even to drop from latest case average of 461 down to 176 would take around 130 days if trend from last 3 weeks were to continue. If taking Dr. Wachter's estimate of SFDPH case numbers being 1/5 of actual cases (due to non-reporting of at home rapid tests or no test), it would even take much longer.

    Here's hoping that case levels and positivity will go down much faster in coming weeks. I don't expect surge to be "over" by end of June, but it would be a pleasant surprise. I would not relish the new normal to be persistently high virus levels such that eating indoors in a crowded restaurant is not an option before summer is over. As Dr. Wachter points out, the risk of hospitalization is low even for over 60 if vaxxed, but higher risk of Long Covid is not a nothing burger (as I am eating late lunch on sidewalk).