Covid-19 Tracker: How high will we fly?

Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations have declined a bit, but the rise in recorded infections and positivity rates continues. R Number estimates put San Francisco around 1.

This is National Public Health Week.

Omicron BA.2 is visiting San Francisco. How long it’s planning to stay, and whether it will be a wave, a surge, or a bump in the road remains to be seen. Right now, the City and region seem to be doing worse than the rest of the state.

Expect to see the word “seem” a lot more as data becomes more unreliable or simply unavailable. Do our public officials care? Anyone heard from the Mayor lately? Dr. Grant Colfax? Gov. Gavin Newsom? Here’s what the Department of Public Health considers “Covid Ready”. Good advice, but no mention of public policy initiatives. What is the City doing to get ready?

Don’t expect the “full Shanghai.”

In Washington, cruel and usual cynicism has reached new extremes.

Is it any wonder this rise has been already christened the “So What Wave?”

In fairness, no one knows how the BA.2 surge will play out. So far, besides being the most contagious variant yet, it also seems like the most unpredictable.

A little late, but a booster strategy (other than “it’s up to you”) might be a good idea. Can there be too much of a good thing? We may find out soon. To make ends meet, one entrepreneur in Germany got 90 shots.

Even though it’s poorly tracked, there is no question that the country’s class and race inequalities have been painfully reflected in racial and occupational covid data. For some, this is a moral outrage. For others, it’s a sign to carry on as usual.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

Over the past week, hospitalizations have dropped 17 percent. On April 2, DPH reports there were 20 covid hospitalizations, or about 2.3 covid hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). ICU patients remain in single digits as has been the case since March 2. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 23 covid patients in SF hospitals and 3 ICU patients.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 5 covid patients and 12 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 covid patients and 5 ICU beds available. Of 35 reported covid patients, 21 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 73 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 114 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Between Jan. 31 and April 1, DPH recorded 608 new infections among Mission residents or 103 new infections per 10,000 residents. For the first time in recorded history, the Mission had a lower rate than Seacliff (112)! During that period, Mission Bay had the highest rate at 169 new infections per 10,000 residents. Of 38 neighborhoods, 26 had rates above 100 per 10,000 residents. Twin Peaks had the lowest rate at 68 per 10,000 residents.

DPH reports on March 29, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City rose to 110 or approximately 12.5 new infections per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population), representing a 15.8 percent rise from last week. According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 11.1 per 100,000 “fully vaccinated” residents and 25.8 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents. It is unclear whether “fully vaccinated” means 2, 3 or 4 doses. According to the New York Times, the 7-day average number was 114 on March 29. The latest report from the Times says the 7-day average number on April 5 was 131 a 119 percent increase over the past two weeks. For those interested in wastewater monitoring, see here.

We are working to improve the graph. For the month of March, DPH reports Whites accounted for 931 recorded infections or 31.7 percent of the month’s total; Asians 800 infections or 27.2 percent; Latinxs 264 infections or 9 percent; Blacks 69 infections or 2.4 percent; Multi-racials 34 infections or 1.2 percent; Pacific Islanders 14 infections or .5 percent; and Native Americans had 7 infections or .2 percent of the March total.

For the month of March, DPH reports a 3.6 percent positivity rate among Mult-racial San Franciscans, Pacific Islanders 3.4 percent, Native Americans 3.3 percent, Whites 3 percent, Asians 3 percent, Latinxs 2.3 percent, and Blacks had a positivity rate of 1.7 percent for the month of March.

As of April 5, DPH reports 782,377 San Franciscans have received at least one vaccine dose,  89 percent of all San Francisco residents. 83 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, those with one dose remain above 90 percent and those with two remains at 87 percent while for those 65 and older over 90 percent have received two doses. The number of San Franciscans who have received boosters is virtually unchanged from last week. As of March 29, approximately 473,588 SF residents (66 percent of all residents, 83 percent of residents 65 and older) have received a COVID-19 booster dose, an increase of less than .2 percent over the past week.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Four new covid-related deaths have been reported, bringing the total since the beginning of the year to 154. DPH won’t say how many were vaccinated and how many were unvaccinated. Nor does it provide information on the race/ethnicity or socio-economic status of those who have recently died. The omicron death toll seems higher than delta. During and after the delta surge, July-October, the number was 105. According to DPH “COVID-19 deaths are suspected to be associated with COVID-19. This means COVID-19 is listed as a cause of death or significant condition on the death certificate.” Using a phrase like “suspected to be associated with” indicates the difficulty in determining a covid death. The ambiguity is heightened when currently DPH continues to report only 21 of the 848 deaths are known to have had no underlying conditions, or comorbidities.

Reflecting a great deal of uncertainty, Covid R Estimation on April 1 estimated the San Francisco R Number at a very high 1.65 while currently estimating the California R Number estimate at .88 on April 4. The ensemble, as of April 4, estimates the San Francisco R Number at .91 while estimating the California R Number at .87. Only one model in the ensemble has SF over 1.

As of April 1, DPH reports 3 recorded infections and 0 covid-related deaths among residents at “skilled nursing facilities” (nursing homes). Residents in the City’s Single Room Occupancy hotels had 43 recorded infections 3 covid-related deaths in March while those San Franciscans who do not have shelter had 32 recorded infections in March. Since the beginning of the pandemic, DPH has recorded 12 covid-related deaths among the unhoused.