Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations have declined, but there is a notable increase in recorded infections and positivity rates. R Number estimates put San Francisco well over 1.

Are we witnessing the take off of the omicron BA.2 surge? Seems likely, but who knows what that might mean. You will be glad to know the San Francisco Department of Public Health is not worried. Meanwhile, here’s an overview of the situation in much of Asia. Though DPH gives us nothing but raw numbers, this is a closer look at the situation with the University of California, San Francisco, which handles most covid cases in the City.

This week, we non-STEM students got an important lesson in the scientific method. When the de facto Covid Czar orders a second booster round, the Biden White House authorizes the shot for adults over 50 and anyone immunocompromised. Without even the pretense of reviewing the (minimal) data, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration then approves it, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says, “you can get it if you really want it.” Works every time.

The case for the 4th shot is laid out in this piece in the New York Times, which published a piece less than a month ago that laid out the case against it. And if you’re looking for a more contemporary doubt on the need for the 4th shot, check out here and here.

Keep in mind, a 4th shot implies a 5th shot, as a new vaccine will be ready this fall.

Why should the White House wait for the CDC, which may employ the last scientists on earth who disregard evidence that aerosol transmission is the primary source of covid spread.

Does anyone seriously doubt that putting health care in the hands of private equity firms will result in greater inequities? Between 2010 and 2019, private equity deals in healthcare nearly tripled in value, especially in nursing homes where most covid-related deaths took place.

To make sure the inequities in healthcare remain the same or worsen, the U.S. government has ended free covid testing for the uninsured.

Too bad the Covid Czar forgot to order global vaccination.

Thanks to the efforts of the National Institutes of Health, we still know very little about “long covid.”

Remember “herd immunity”? We don’t hear much about it these days. Seems the virus had different ideas, or maybe, we aren’t the herd some thought we were.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

As of March 29, DPH reports 782,552 San Franciscans have received at least on vaccine dose,  89 percent of all San Francisco residents. 83 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, those with one dose remain above 90 percent and those with two rose to 87 percent while for those 65 and older over 90 percent have received two doses. The number of San Franciscans who have received boosters is virtually unchanged from last week. As of March 29, approximately 472,943 SF residents (65 percent of all residents, 83 percent of residents 65 and older) have received a COVID-19 booster dose, an increase of less than .2 percent over the past week.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Over the past week, hospitalizations have dropped 44 percent. On March 26, DPH reports there were 24 covid hospitalizations, or about 2.7 covid hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). ICU patients have been in single digits since March 2. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 28 covid patients in SF hospitals and 4 ICU patients.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 3 covid patients and 13 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 1 covid patient and 4 ICU beds available. Of 41 reported covid patients, 20 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 80 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 97 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Between Jan. 24 and March 25, DPH recorded 893 new infections among Mission residents or 152 new infections per 10,000 residents. During that period, Mission Bay had the highest rate at 223 new infections per 10,000 residents. Of 38 neighborhoods, 37 had rates above 100 per 10,000 residents, while 3 (Mission Bay, Bayview Hunters Point and Portola) had rates above 200 per 10,000 residents. Presidio had the lowest rate at 88 per 10,000 residents.

DPH reports on March 22, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City rose to 95 or approximately 10.8 new infections per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population), representing a 14.4 percent rise from last week. According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 10.2 per 100,000 “fully vaccinated” residents and 19.3 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents. It is unclear whether “fully vaccinated” means 2, 3 or 4 doses. According to the New York Times, the 7-day average number was 114 on March 29, a 237 percent increase over the past two weeks. For those interested in wastewater monitoring, the poop is rising. see here.


As of March 25, DPH reports Whites accounted for 31.7 percent of the month’s total, Asians 26.3 percent, Latinxs 9.3 percent, Blacks 2.6 percent, Multi-racials 1.3 percent, Pacific Islanders .6 percent, and Native Americans had .2 percent of the month’s total so far.

As of March 25, the March positivity rate in the Mission was 2.8 percent. In comparison, the positivity rate in Bayview Hunters Point was 1.9 percent, Bernal Heights 1.9 percent, Castro 2.8 percent, Glen Park 2.6 percent, Noe Valley 2.7 percent, Seacliff 1.3 percent, and in Lakeshore, the only neighborhood in the City with less than 50 percent vaccinated, the positivity rate so far in March was 1.9 percent.

Nine new covid-related deaths have been reported, bringing the total since the beginning of the year to 150. DPH won’t say how many were vaccinated and how many unvaccinated. Nor does it provide information on the race/ethnicity or socio-economic status of those who have recently died. The omicron death toll seems higher than delta. During and after the delta surge, July-October, the number was 105. According to DPH “COVID-19 deaths are suspected to be associated with COVID-19. This means COVID-19 is listed as a cause of death or significant condition on the death certificate.” Using a phrase like “suspected to be associated with” indicates the difficulty in determining a covid death. The ambiguity is heightened when currently DPH continues to report only 21 of the 844 deaths are known to have had no underlying conditions, or comorbidities.

Covid R Estimation on March 4, estimated the San Francisco R Number at a very high 1.74 while currently estimating the California R Number estimate at .66. The ensemble, as of March 25, estimates the San Francisco R Number at 1.22 while estimating the California R Number at .85.

As of March 25, DPH reports 77 recorded infections among San Franciscans aged 0-4, or 3.4 percent of the recorded infections so far this month, 5-11 100 infections or 4.4 percent, 12-17 67 infections or 2.9 percent, 18-20 38 infections or 1.7 percent, 21-24 172 infections or 7.6 percent, 25-29 378 infections or 16.6 percent, 30-39 599 infections or 26.3 percent, 40-49 335 infections or 14.7 percent, 50-59 205 infections or 9 percent, 60-69 165 infections or 7.2 percent, 70-79 77 infections or 3.4 percent, and those 80 and above have had 65 recorded infections so far this month or 2.9 percent of the total.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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  1. You’re covid reports are top notch. I am especially appreciative that you aren’t shy about including links to new information team vaxx doesn’t necessarily want to hear; such as cloth/surgical masks suck and a million boosters aren’t necessary.

    When I posted skepticism about the push for under 18 kids to get boosted as the two dose mRNA was showing long term protection and boosters were showing little benefit for that age range, another commenter chastised ML for allowing my post; your next piece linked the Nature article which cited the pertinent information leading to such a conclusion. Yesss. Take that, commenter person.

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  2. the wastewater data at data dot covid-web dot org shows that while the wastewater cov2 measurements fell to a low on March 10, in the six measurements between then and now, the measurements have mostly trended up

    would be interesting to have that sequenced to see if it’s ba.2

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  3. If you looked to the New York Times for your data instead of the SFDPH, you would find that as of yesterday (not 3/22) the 14 day change in the number of cases is +237%. On March 28, 354 new cases were reported (probably including Sat. & Sun. numbers). Today, the number (for yesterday) is 59 cases. So up and down, but trending up.
    Interestingly the Times reports 133, 029 total cases for SF, vs SFDPH, 123,776. Somehow, Colfax lost 10,000 cases.

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    1. I refer to the New York Times case number data in the text below the graph. Please let me know if there is any reason to assume the NYT’s infection numbers are more “accurate” than the City’s or the State’s or WaPo or JHU or others. One of the problems noted at the beginning of the pandemic, which has not changed, is that there is no official nationwide dataset. Just another example of deficient data that continues to plague the national response. With rapid tests in play, I think it is safe to assume all recorded infection numbers are low. Again, Covid Tracker should be used to look at trends. Thanks.

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