Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Hospitalizations remain high, though may be starting to drop, while infection numbers and positivity rates remain high and are falling. R Number models continue to show SF at or below 1.
At least one local covid celebrity doctor thinks SF has turned the omicron corner.
Don’t hold your breath. Here comes “stealth” omicron. I have a triple vaxxed friend who was infected, isolated for 10 days, tested negative and, a week later, got infected again. Both times were relatively mild, the first more mild than the second. Although we’ve been told that infection confers “natural immunity,” now we hear reinfection should not be a surprise, and “stealth omicron” appears to be more contagious than plain omicron. What’s the Greek word for “stealth”?
Another reason we may not be yet out of the covid woods? Jails and prisons have been among the most prominent incubators of covid. You would think state officials would have corrected the stupidity of “corrections.” Think again.
Even though supplies are limited, New York City delivers antiviral pills for free to those infected who have a prescription and are most vulnerable. How long will it take for San Francisco’s Department of Public Health to do the same?
The Vaccine has helped keep elderly and immunocompromised out of the hospital, and has lowered the infection fatality rate. Unfortunately for endemicity cheerleaders, it still doesn’t look like the flu.
There may be a seasonal and weather correlation with covid spikes after all.
Like “follow the science,” it’s time to ditch another popular slogan of the pandemic, “we’re all in this together.” Hard to believe anyone could say that with a straight face, when 745 billionaires have seen their wealth pile up to grotesque heights while millions of others have lost their jobs and their homes, not to mention the hundreds of thousands who have lost their lives.
Will our consistently “overwhelmed” hospitals decide to invest in their workforce and resources? Not if you look at the recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in SF where all the talk was about money, more money and technology. What does this mean for the hospital of the future? Take a look.
Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Jan. 30, DPH reports 779,067 residents, more than 89 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 82 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise above 90 percent and above 86 percent while for those 65 and older over 90 percent have received two doses. SFDPH reports that as of Jan. 30, approximately 456,042 SF residents (64 percent of all residents) have received a COVID-19 booster dose.
For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
On Jan. 27, DPH reports there were 263 covid hospitalizations, or about 30.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). Hospitalizations have been above 260 since Jan.18, hitting a high of 286 on Jan. 25. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 258 covid patients in SF hospitals with 48 in ICU.
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 48 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 22 covid patients and 4 ICU beds available. Of 264 reported covid patients, 125 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 67 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 75 ICU beds available in San Francisco.
Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Nov. 27and Jan. 26, DPH recorded 3672 new infections among Mission residents or 625 new infections per 10,000 residents. Despite over 90 percent of its residents having received at least 2 doses of The Vaccine, Bayview Hunters Point has the highest number of recorded new infections (4123) with an incredible rate 1087 new infections per 10,000 residents. Of 38 neighborhoods, 14 had rates above 600 per 10,000 residents, 13 of which were in the east and southeast sectors of the City.
On Jan. 23, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City was 1136 or approximately 129.9 new infections per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents on Jan. 18 was 112.5 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents, 292.6 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.
As of Jan. 26, DPH reports that throughout the pandemic, based on size of population groups, Pacific Islanders have had an infection rate of 4,349 infections per 10,000 residents, Latinxs 2,321, Native Americans 2,001, Blacks 1,768, Whites 828 and Asians have had an infection rate of 805 infections per 10,000 residents.
On Jan. 23, the 7-day average Citywide positivity rate fell below 16 percent for the first time since Dec. 29. The 15.6 percent posititivy rate is about one third higher than any recorded rate prior to omicron.
Of 715 covid-related deaths, 21 were reported with no underlying conditions, and 450 were reported with one or more. The rest are unknown.
Covid R Estimation lowered its San Francisco R Number estimate to 1.01 while lowering its California R Number to .88. Still surprisingly low, the ensemble raised its average San Francisco R Number to .78 while lowering its average California R Number to .63. Three models in the ensemble show SF well under 1 with a fourth at 1.01.
Between Aug. 16, 2021 and Jan. 17, 2022, DPH reports that of 74,500 students (52,000 SFUSD, 22,500 private, parochial and charter) and 15,000 staff (10,000 SFUSD, 5000 private, parochial and charter), there were 4,937 total infections, 4,276 (or 87 percent) were in public schools, while 661 (or 13 percent) were in private, parochial or charter schools.
From the data, one can see that the Covid R number has been below 1 since at least January 10 or 11. New infections have been dropping fast since then (hence, R<1 – with some adjustments necessary for contagion period). This is an inexact science, but any model that showed any higher number is clearly an inaccurate model. On the flipside, the numbers plainly indicate a far higher R number in late December, probably at least 2. The "ensemble" model has proven to be far more accurate than the "Covid R Estimation" model.
Since I think readers are entitled to more up to the minute stats, New York Times reports today that as of Jan. 30 daily average cases are 1382, down 42% from 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations as of Jan. 20 (last reported data) are up 134% from Jan. 6 with an average of 265 patients a day. They report 20 deaths in the last two weeks, which is the highest 2 week death toll I’ve ever seen. According to them as of 1/30 test positivity is 18%.