Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid 19 data dump.

We were expecting a carefree summer of travel and partying. So far we’ve gotten fog, fires and plenty of frustration. New York Times columnist, and SF resident, Ezra Klein, expresses what many of us must be feeling.

Any good news? Yes there is.

It appears the Delta has finally pried cumulative hospitalization numbers (or a number) from the icy iron fingers of DPH. According to the Department, as of August 4 there have been 3041 hospitalizations since the pandemic began (you have to scroll down to the bottom of the link to get it). If my math is correct (and I wouldn’t trust it), that comes out to an infection-hospitlization rate of about 7.25 percent. Of the 3041, only 16 had been fully vaccinated.

More good news on the hospitalization front. Of the 164 million vaccinated Americans, the CDC says only 7,101 have been hospitalized. Great. But what’s even better is in a footnote stating “1,816 (26%) of 7,101 hospitalizations reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.” Wow. Does that hold true for non-vaccinated Covid patients as well?

It also appears that hospitalizations may be slowing in SF. For the seven days ended August 2, hospitalizations rose 35 percent. For the previous week, the rate of increase was 72 percent.

Worth reiterating is the long-range immunity our T cells and B cells should provide as seen in this long thread from UCSF infectious disease doc Monica Gandhi on the evidence of long range immunity from the vaccines. Let’s hear it for our T cells and B cells.

Finally a reader submitted this piece which suggests the official response to Covid would have been better if it had been treated it as a national security issue. “Imagine if 600,000 Americans and 4 million worldwide had been killed in a terrorist attack, and 50,000 were still being killed every week.” Yeah, they would have bombed Iraq.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of August 5, the vaccination report from DPH remains somewhat static with over 76 percent of all San Francisco residents having received one dose, and over 70 percent  now completely vaccinated (it is unclear what number DPH uses for total SF residents, but it appears to be the 881,000 figure cited by the US Census in 2019). On August 5, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 552. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

According to the CDC, for the 7 days ending August 4, there have been 72 new admissions to SF hospitals, a 14.29 percent increase over the prior seven days. Covid patients account for 4.83 percent of hospital beds (up 1.87 percent) and 9.36 percent of ICU beds (up 2.34 percent).

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 15 Covid patients and 81 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had Covid patients and 74 percent ICU occupancy. Of 71 reported Covid patients, 43 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

Between June 2 and August 1, DPH reported 381 new cases among Mission residents (or 65 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 458 newcases in Bayview Hunters Point (121 cases per 10,000 residents). Of the 14 neighborhoods with rates of 65 or over new cases per 10,000 residents at least 11 could be said to be in the east and southeast sectors of the City.

Hospitalizations may be tapering off, but cases continue a steep vertical rise. For the week ending July 29, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City rose to 265 new cases, or approximately 30.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 881,000).

In July, Whites had 1591 new cases, Latinx 982, Asian 725, Blacks 682, Multi-racial 68, Pacific Islanders 28, and Native Americans had 1 new case last month.

The Citywide average positivity rate has risen to a level not seen since last April. Dr. Grant Colfax said yesterday that the City is responding with “robust” testing particularly in the southeast sector. On the ground it doesn’t look so robust, as Jon Jacobo of the Latino Task Force tweets “The fact we limited and reduced testing capacity in the city is a bit beyond me. We at LTF never did. Small locations are now slammed with folks who would not usually need to come see us, because there is no locations for them to test.”

DPH has reported another 2 new Covid-related deaths in July bringing July’s total to 9 and the cumulative total to 567.

Covid R Estimation puts the current R Number for San Francisco at 1.44, still among the highest in California, which it places at 1.35. The ensemble estimates the San Francisco R Number at 1.13 (the lowest its been for six weeks) and the California R Number at 1.28. For a good explanation of the R Number, see the this thread.

For the month of July, San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 152 new cases, 5-10 188, 11-13 77, 14-17 89, 18-20 99, 21-24 430, 25-29 922, 30-39 1339, 40-49 599, 50-59 361, 60-69 198, 70-79 85, and for those 80+ there were 50 new cases .

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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7 Comments

  1. Thanks for the link to the blog on how to read the R number. Based on these calculations, it seems that we’re pretty well doomed. Even if vaccine efficacy were maintained at 90% with the Delta/Delta plus through booster shots, we would need for 100% of the population to be vaccinated to reach an R number of 1 — stabilizing the outbreak but not diminishing it. Looks like masks are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

    1. I hope we’re not doomed, but most likely Covid will become endemic, which is basically what Ezra Klein was writing about. “If you’re a fully vaccinated person in America, your risk of something bad happening to you from Covid is as bad or lower than in a normal flu season,” Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me.”

      1. 7 of my co-workers and I have covid. We had all been vaccinated. It’s really frustrating to read reporting that does not acknowledge how easily a vaccinated person can pass the virus to another vaccinated person.

    1. Thanks AB, good catch. I have made some changes which I hope you find satisfactory. Sorry for the confusion, but I don’t think it’s misinformation.The tweet was from this morning, and the study referred to was published in May https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(21)00238-9. What I missed was that it was part of a long thread including other studies which you will see go up to mid July, basically confirming that T cells (and B cells) should provide protection and concluding with this tweet from July 17 regarding the delta variant. “Having 11 mutations across a spike protein cannot knock out all 87 T cells (beta knocks out 13) from severe disease; our severe breakthrough rate with vax (0.002%) has remained unchanged through delta.” I assumed Dr. Gandhi retweeted this study because of its current relevance. Apologies to Dr. Gandhi if that was not her intention.

  2. Is it me, or is the SFDPH website becoming more useless and bereft of information with each passing day? I don’t understand why all the “indicator” boxes are gone.

    To be fair, maybe a city with a $13B budget needs to keep its public information costs under control.

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