Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
We’ve heard of breakthrough infections, but “breakthrough clusters?” What’s going on with the New York Yankees? Lots of questions. Not many answers.
How does San Francisco vaccination rates compare around the world? Pretty well, as it happens. But as in alll things Covid, uncertainty is the name of the game. Look at what happened in the Seychelles.
As noted earlier, California has a big budget surplus. But so far, the Anti-recall campaign has no plans to increase funds for public health infrastructure.
Stop the presses! Police Chief Bill Scott apologized for a police shooting, without waiting for six months of confusing, conflicting and wholly inadequate “investigations”. Good job Chief!
And if you want to open a restaurant, sometimes you have to sell shoes. See more in Developments in Development.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of May 14, DPH reports over 75 percent (580,401) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 60 percent (459,340) are completely vaccinated. On May 14, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 6,979. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
Covid-19 R Estimation dropped its estimate for the San Francisco R number to .82, while maintaining its estimate for California around .95. All models in the ensemble show San Francisco and California below 1, with a San Francisco average estimate of .76, while California’s average estimate rose to .91.
No update from DPH so far today. Between April 10 and May 9, DPH reports 73 new cases in the Mission or 12.2 new cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point remains the City’s hottest spot with 93 new cases over the past month or 25 new cases per 10,000 residents. Only 8 neighborhoods in the City had rates over 10 new cases per 10,000 residents:Bayview Hunters Point, Western Addition, Visitacion Valley, FiDi/South Beach, Potrero Hill, Marina, Mission and SOMA.
For the week ending May 7, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 21 new cases, or 2.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.
More than half (maybe 75 percent) of the nation’s farmworkers are undocumented, most from Mexico and Central America. It’s one of the most dangerous jobs in the country, and workers have been denied Covid protection, vaccination and basic healthcare.
For the week ending May 11, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 12 percent. During that week, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 35 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On May 11, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 2.5 percent of ICU occupancy and .8 percent of Acute Care occupancy and the City had 100 percent ICU and 100 percent Acute Care surge capacity.
The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week that of 23 reported Covid patients in SF hospitals, SFGH, UCSF and Kaiser had 15.
The Citywide average positivity rate has been below 1 percent since April 11. Less than 6,000 tests have been administered daily in the City since Februrary 28, 43 percent collected by the City.
There have been 0 nursing home deaths reported in SF since January 19. There have been 0 new cases reported since April 17. In Single Room Occupancy Hotels (SROs) there have been 34 cases and 0 deaths since March 23.
San Francisco’s case fatality rate since April 1 is approximately .64 percent.
RE: “For the week ending May 7, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 21 new cases,…” 21 average daily new cases is the lowest since 3/19/2020. Average number of tests per day on 3/19/202 was 262 or 17 times lower than the average of 4465 tests per day on 5/7/2021, and test positive rate was 8.8% last year or 13 times higher than recent 0.6%-0.7% test positive rate so actual cases in March 2020 were very likely much higher than today.
Another comparison – May 7 is 65 days after the 3/3/2021 reopening. At 65 days after the 9/30/2020 reopening, SF average daily new cases was 234 or 11 times higher than the 21 average daily cases on May 7.
SF high vaccination percentages have me looking forward to a summer that is near normal as possible with average daily new cases in low single-digits.