Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

SFDPH has now updated its data. See below. The biggest change is an additional 5 hospitalizations for a second straight day. Though still low by historical standards, today’s figure represents a 50 percent rise in the past two days and comes during low and stable new case numbers.

Meanwhile . . .

A new neighborhood vaccination site has opened in Excelsior.

Though the pandemic crashed the economy, a lot of (rich) people did very well. One was SFGiants owner Charles Johnson. Now It seems he wants to keep a good thing going. Not only have the Giants and MLB declined to require tests or provide protections for food workers inside the stadium, they are requiring all workers to sign a release of liability for the team and league should a worker contract Covid. No one expects any better from Johnson or his team, but that DPH would acquiesce is surprising and disappointing. Don’t expect any data on workplace outbreaks at Mission Creek baseball park.

Fortunately, you don’t have to pay Charles Johnson for a mighty meaty burger. (Unfortuntely I can’t vouch for the safety of burger joint workers, though I assume it’s not super duper).

Remember when Big Tech was going to solve problems and change the world for the better? Contact tracing was never going to be easy in the U.S. and Silicon Valley has offered little or nothing to improve the program.

Although the Anti-Recall Campaign relies on dates not data to fully reopen the state’s economy, UCSF’s Dr. Monica Gandhi and others provide metrics that make more sense than political calculation for lifting restrictions.

With the trial of George Floyd’s killers now taking center stage, what better time to check out Lessons of the Hour in Dogpatch.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 7, DPH report 53 percent (405,547) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 33 percent (251,076) had received two.  On April 6, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 12,441. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

  Covid-19 R Estimation  continues  its estimate for  San Francisco R  Number at .99 while keeping its  California estimate around .95. The ensemble modestly raised its average estimate for San Francisco to  .79 and  the estiimate for California to .8

Between March 7 and April 9, DPH reported 82 new positive tests in the Mission, or 13.8 cases per 10,000 residents. As of April 7, 46 percent of Mission residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine. The neighborhood with the highest percentage of vaccine recipients is Japantown with 58 percent and the neighborhood with the lowest percentage is Lakeshore (25 percent.).

For the week ending March 31, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 37 or 4.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

As noted over and over again earlier, case numbers in San Francisco would not come down meaningfully until the situation among the hardest hit Latinx community was addressed. We can see some data recently to augment that argument. In March there were 2324 fewer Latinx cases than in Janurary, 1378 fewer Asian cases, 1357 fewer White cases, 365 fewer Black cases, 167 fewer Pacific Islander cases,  68 fewer Multi-racial cases and 14 fewer Native American cases in March than January .

The recent rise has come in Acute Care. For the week ending April 6, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 4 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 35 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 6, Covid patients made up 2.5 percent of available ICU and 1.7 percent of Acute Care beds.  Surge capacity is reported to be at 100 percent for both ICU and Acute Care. 

The health pandemic in the U.S. is not limited to the virus. A new study from the Naional Institutes of Health reports nearly two-thirds of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. could be attributed to obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and heart failure.

In San Francisco, underlying conditions have been kind of a black hole in the data. Only 19 percent of SF cases have one or more underlying condition while In most cases (46.3 percent) the presence of underlying conditions is unknown, which is not a great surprise. However, in 30 percent of the deaths, the presence of an underlying conditon is unknown,  while in 67.6 percent of the deaths,  one or more underlying condition is present (which ones DPH does not say).

Based on 488 deaths (reported by the Washington Post), San Francisco has had 56.1 deaths per 100,000 residents. In comparison, Sacramento has 101.5,  San Diego 108.5, Los Angeles 230.8, Portland 70.6, Seattle 68.3, Santa Fe 96.7, Austin 79.7, Dallas 150.6, New Orleans 201.5, Atlanta 127, and Miami 220 deaths per 100,000 residents.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. Well, today’s updates are now up on SFDPH – 35,405 cases, 487 deaths. As your column periodically notes, increase in deaths could have occurred days or weeks ago and records were updated in last 24 hours.
    Note the most recent 7-day rolling average (37 cases) is reported for 4/1/2021 or 7 days ago. Previously, the most recent 7-day rolling average had been consistently reported for 8 days earlier than the date of the report. Whether this change caused the delay in today’s report, or whether the delay in today’s report caused the change is not known from information I have looked at. The change makes sense as there has been little change to the case numbers after 5 days have past. Earlier in pandemic when there was much higher case numbers, there were more stragglers cases that showed up days later.
    Bottom line is 7-day rolling average in past week has leveled off at around 37 cases and continues to hold there and possibly be decreasing slightly to 35 in next 2 days. This is good compared to last October when at 31 days after reopening to 25%, the 7-day rolling average had risen to 54 when SFDPH announced pause in plan to reopen to 50%. Even with not reopening to 50%, the 7-day rolling average climbed to 91 one week later to give a head start to the Thanksgiving surge. The leveling off of cases now correlates with increasing percentage of population getting vaccinated. We are very fortunate to not have the B.1.1.7 variant in a high percentage of cases here unlike in Michigan which is well into 4th surge even though vaccination numbers are comparable to SF. The difference is B.1.1.7 is the dominant percentage of cases in Michigan.

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