Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Variant Watch: Michigan, where the BII7 variant is very prevalent now has the highest number of cases in the country. A prominent hospital in Traverse City reports: “Positive COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates are at an all-time high in northern Michigan. This latest surge is largely driven by highly contagious variants and a spread among young and middle-aged adults who have not yet received their COVID-19 vaccine. In fact, more than 55% of hospitalized patients statewide are under 60 years old.” Fearing a backlash if she reimposes restrictions and mandates, the Governor has asked residents to “act responsibly”. Good luck.

Another study showing the vaccine provokes “early T cell and binding antibody responses, rather than either receptor-blocking or virus neutralizing activity, induced early protection against Covid-19.”

Since the Pandemic began, cases and deaths among men have been consistently higher than women leading to the assumption of a biological connection. That assumption has now been challenged with a new study finding that coronavirus mortality rates for Black women in the U.S. are more than three times that of White and Asian men

Zair Gonzalez, a worker with the Latino Task Force, recalls one immigrant he was able to help and the difference community engagement has made in the lives of people.

And here are notes from the neighborhood for this weekend.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 8, DPH reports 54 percent (414,698) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and over  34 percent (260,957) had received two.  On April 8, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 12,581. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Although new cases remain relatively quiet on the local front, various R Number models show the virus may be becoming more active in the City and State.  Covid-19 R Estimation  puts the San Francisco R  Number at 1.06, while raising its  California estimate to 1.01. The ensemble has kept its average estimate for San Francisco around  .83 and  raised the estiimate for California to .87

No new monthly case numbers from DPH this morning.  The cumulative total for the Mission stands at 4044 positive tests, or 678 cases per 10,000 residents. Although the Mission has the highest case number, Bayview Hunters Point has the highest rate with 1009.8 cases per 10,000 residents. The Inner Sunset, home to UCSF, has the lowest rate in the City with 167.8 cases per 10,000 residents.

New case numbers continue essentially flat. For the week ending April 2, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 35 or 4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Pacific Islanders have had a case rate of 1563 cases per 10,000 residents, Latinx 1091, Native Americans 719, Blacks 470, Whites 222, Asians 218 and Multi-racials 174, while the Citywide rate is 408 cases per 10,000 residents.

DPH has reported no new hospitalization figures or capacity numbers for the past three days. See below for data from the Feds.  For the week ending April 6, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 4 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 35 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 6, 96 ICU beds and 384 Acute Care beds were available.  In case of a surge, 298 ICU beds and 247 Acute Care beds are available, but DPH doesn’t say how many of those beds are staffed. 

On April 10, the latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows 34 Covid patients in SF hospitals with 26 in SFGH, UCSF and Kaiser.

According to the New York Times, low positivity rate suggests that “testing capacity is adequate for evaluating Covid-19 spread in the area.”

67 percent of those San Francicans over 65 have been completely vaccinated. Those 75 an older have received 11 percent of the shots administered so far in San Francisco, while those 65-74 have received 16 percent, 55-64 17 percent, 45-54 16 percent, 35-44 17 percent, 25-34 18 percent and 16-24 5 percent . 

Latest updates from DPH still shows those older than 60 with 16 percent of the cases, and 90 percent of the deaths. Of the Covid-relatd deaths, 66.7 percent had one or more underlying condition, 2.6 percent had none, while in 30.6 percent of the deaths, the presence, or absence of one or more underlying condition was unknown.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *