Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

“Doom” cried this morning’s Chron quoting the CDC director’s fear for a 4th Great Surge. Receiving far less coverage, almost none, was the CDC report on viral transmission after vaccination. Not the stuff of screaming healines.

Lydia reports that as eligibility increases, the vaccination site at 24th and Capp will extend into May and a new vaccination site in the Mission is due to open next month.

Last night the Mission had its first homicide of the year at 24th and Mission, the site of a sideshow Saturday night that left four men injured.

RIP Carmen Vázquez, organizer, activist and founder of the Women’s Building.

Finally, if you missed it, here are photos from Saturday’s Tribute to Selena.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

The California Immunization Registry data system continues to undercount vaccinations. As of March 28,  44 percent (334,135) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while over  23 percent (178,274) had received two.  On March 28, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 9,309.1.  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

For those not familiar with the R Number, a number above 1 indicates the virus spread is likely increasing, while below 1, it is likely decreasing. According to  Covid-19 R Estimation  San Francisco now has one of the highest R Numbers in the state at  1.09. Eight models in the ensemble estimate the City’s R Number from .63 to 1.15 for an average of  .78.  Estimates for California’s R Number range from .54 to .96 for a continuing average of .80.

Glad to see another vaccination site is coming to the Mission. Between February 26 and March 27,  DPH added 102 new cases to the Mission or a rate of  17.1 new cases per 10,000 residents. No other neighborhood in the City had more than 67 new cases although higher rates were recorded in Tenderloin (22.6), North Beach (20.6), Marina (18.9) and Bayview Hunters Point (18.7).   

For the week ending March 22, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City remained at 31 or 3.6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Vaccinations are ramping up, but not fast enough, especially among those most vulnerable

As mass vaccinations continue to unroll, keep an eye on hospitalizations as a key indicator as to what kind of surge we will experience over the next month.  For the week ending March 28, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 22 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On March 28, Covid patients occupied approximately  1.75 percent of available ICU beds and 1.9 percent available Acute Care beds. DPH says capacity for a potential surge is at 100 percent in ICU and 90 percent in Acute Care.

According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, last week SFGH had 9 Covid patients and 84 percent ICU occupancy.  Across the Mission CPMC had 3 Covid patients and 46 percent ICU occupancy.

The Citywide average positivity rate has been very stable at a low rate this month. Between March 1 and March 26, Latinx residents had a 2.14 percent positivity rate, Pacific Islanders 1.99 percent, Blacks 1.17 percent, Multi-racials .83 percent, Whites .79 percent, Asians .69 percent and Native Americans 0

Another new record low positivity rate for California!

To keep people from death or required hospitalization, vaccinating the elderly and infirm has been a priority. As of March 28, 81 percent of San Francisco residents over 65 have received at least one does and 60 percent have been fully vaccinated. Oddly the numbers of those over 75 are a bit lower with 73 percent receiving at least one dose and 57 percent fully vaccinated.

Although death is the most serious result of the virus, and one of the main reasons given for restrictive social policy, reporting on Covid-related deaths has been confusing, contradictory, uncertain, and sketchy at best. But as media like the Chron tend to emphasize the scary, I will end this Tracker on an upbeat note. News out of Britain  (where the B117 variant has been rampant) this morning is that yesterday 0 Covid-related deaths were recorded in London of patients within 28 days of a positive test. In January, London was recording over 200 deaths a day. While in Los Angeles, only 1 new death was reported. In San Francisco, though new deaths have been reported, 0 new Covid-related deaths have been recorded since March 14. 

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. The vaccination rates by county graph seem to have flatlined for most counties over the last 5 days. Any reasons for that?

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