Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Following “the science” which has been around for some time, the CDC this morning says 3 foot distancing in schools should be sufficient.

Good news on immunity gained from infection and more good news on Covid treatments.

Various reports have the BII7 variant fueling a new surge in Michigan. A Michigan lab in the middle of it says take a deep breath and look closer at the epedemiology

Here’s a story I forgot to link to yesterday which is very worth reading. Apparently working conditions at Dandelion Chocolate are not as sweet as the product their workers produce.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

According to DPH,  the California Immunization Registry data system continues to undercount vaccinations. As of March 18,  36 percent (274,873) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while over 17 percent (130,265) had received two.  On March 16, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day rose to 9,031.  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

The estimate for San Francisco’s R Number from  Covid-19 R Estimation crept back up to .66, in line with the ensemble’s average of .69. Though still relatively low, California’s R Number is rising with Covid-19 R Estimation placing it at .75 and while the ensemble average is .81.  This is the first time the California R Number has gone over .80 since March 1. 

Between February 15 and March 15,  DPH added 154 new cases to the Mission for a cumulative total of 3989 cases or 66.9 cases per 1,000 residents. Though the Mission has the highest number of cases, Bayview Hunters Point has the highest rate at 99.7 cases per 1,000 residents. No neighborhood west of the Mission has a rate higher than 40, and the neighborhood with the lowest rate in the City is the Inner Sunset, home to UCSF and Mt. Sutro Open Space, with 16.8 cases per 1,000 residents.

For the week ending March 11, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was  32 or 3.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The weekly average case count has recently been on a plateau in the low 30’s, as projected by the Phoenix Data Project .

With farm working season coming back to California, Covid-19 R Estimation puts the R Number in heavily Latinx Imperial County at 1.07. It is the only county in California over 1 and bears watching. The ensemble gives the county a range from .55 to 1.06 for an average of .75.  

Hospitalizations also show some signs of flattening. Today’s figures include 1 ICU transfer and 1 Acute Care transfer. For the week ending March 17, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 7 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 31 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On March 17, DPH reports local hospitals had  90 ICU beds and 387 Acute Care beds available. DPH says capacity for a potential surge is at 100 percent.

According to the most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, last week SFGH had 3 Covid patients, UCSF had 21, Kaiser 11, CPMC Van Ness 6, and CPMC Mission 6.

 

Along with average case numbers and hospitalizations, the trend in the Citywide positivity rate has been flattening at a low rate. Note testing numbers are dramatically down from a weekly average of 9,206 reached on January 8They are also down from the average number for the week ending March 1, which was  5,939.3.

Between March 1 and March 16, those over 60, an age group which makes up 90 percent of the City’s Covid-related deaths, had 13 percent of the month’s new cases.

 DPH has reported 4 deaths so far this month. In February 56 deaths were reported and 137 in January. DPH only provides (very limited) demographic data on cumulative deaths .

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. The rolling daily average of vaccinations seems to have dropped, rather than risen – 9,031 today and 9,349.3 yesterday. Or is this just another quirk in the DPH data?

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