Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

The Mission Local series highlighting class and race disparities in San Francisco’s Covid testing program has been recognized by a national journalism contest. Has it been recognized by DPH?

Further highlights on class and race “disparities” in our local health system come from last night’s “Health” Commission hearing. Let’s all watch how much Sutter pays MNHC for taking over its community clinics. If anything.

Yesterday, during a panel on lessons learned from the pandemic, UCSF’s Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo observed “The pandemic exposed the many vulnerabilities in our society, our inequities along age lines, along economic lines, along racial and ethnic lines.”  No one disagreed.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.


Impressive leap in either vaccinations or reporting (though DPH continues to assert issues with the California Immunization Registry data system have yet to be resolved). As of March 16,  34 percent (260,430) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while 16 percent (108,496) had received two.  On March 16, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day rose to 9,032.  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Never known for rosy estimates,  Covid-19 R Estimation puts the San Francisco R Number at a wildly low .61 and California at .70. Today  the ensemble takes a conservative turn estimating San Francisco at .67 and California at .75.

Between February 13 and March 14,  DPH added 152 new cases to the Mission or 25.5 new cases per 10,000 residents. Four others had rates over 20 new cases per 10,000 residents, while seventeen had rates between 10 and 20, two had rates less than 10 and fourteen neighborhoods (including Castro and Glen Park) had rates of less than 1 new case per 10,000 residents.

Although much slower now, new case numbers continue to fall. For the week ending March 9, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was  33 or 3.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The Phoenix Data Project sees the virus spread stabilizing in this zone, which is close to where the City was last October before the fall surge.

Today’s figures include 2 ICU transfers and 0 Acute Care transfers. For the week ending March 15, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 9 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 32 percent and Acute Care availability was 23 percent. On March 15, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 4.5 percent of ICU patients and 2.1 percent of Acute Care patients. DPH continues to report 100 percent of required PPE on hand, although it says nothing about what kind of PPE and how that PPE is being utilized.

According to the most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, SFGH has 3 Covid patients and 68 percent ICU occupancy. Across the Mission, CPMC has 5 Covid patients and 66 percent ICU occupancy.


From 5.4 percercent positive in Februrary, the positive rate of Latinx tests as of March 14 was 2.15. Black positivity rate decreased from 2.39 percent to 1.16 percent, Asians from 2.1 to .83, Multi-racials from 1.17 to .95, Native Americans from 1.58 to .81, Pacific Islanders from 1.2 to .78 and Whites from 1.23 to .73.

With dramatically lower new case numbers, you might expect the City’s contact tracers to be reaching close to 100 percent of positive testers and contacts. And they would be able to tell us where people are contracting the disease. No on both counts. The perecentages remain roughly the same as forever. For the two weeks ending March 12, tracers had reached 83 percent of their cases and 83 percent of their contacts. And still no information on workplace outbreaks despite AB 685.

Those over 60 comprise 91 percent of San Francisco Covid-related deaths, 68 percent with underlying conditions (other than age), 2 percent without underlying conditions.


Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. RE: “Covid-19 R Estimation puts the San Francisco R Number at a wildly low .61…” This might be caused by the misleading low daily case numbers in the last 2 days. The total cases to date was 34583 on March 15, 34573 on March 16, and 34589 on March 17. The total cases on March 16 was 10 less than on March 15, and the total cases on March 17 was only 6 more than on March 15. Going by the total cases to date numbers, there was an average of only 3 cases per day over the last 2 days.
    The low number (and negative number on March 16) was caused by corrections to the case count for many of the days from Nov 16, 2020 to Feb 21, 2020. The total number of corrections was 46 less cases over this period. If these corrections were excluded, the number of cases reported over the last 2 days was 52, or an average of 26 cases per day.
    The 7-day average of daily cases on March 9 was 33 and looks to be level over the next 3 days to 31 to 32. 26 cases per day is in line with the trend, while the 3 cases per day from looking only at the change in total cases to date on a given date is misleading due to correction of older case counts.

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