Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Annika and Lydia report that vaccine delivery at 24th and Capp has grown which UCSF Doctor Diane Havlir called “progress towards universal access to vaccination.” 

A year later, Juan Carlos and Clara-Sophia revisit some of those Mission Local first talked with when the pandemic began.

Regular readers of Covid Tracker know I follow Dr. Michael Osterholm from U. of Minnesota. Citing data from Europe and Asia, none of it good, he continues to warn of a B117 hurricane bearing down on us. You can hear his latest podcast (or read the transcript) here.

Much of the heat generated around opening the schools tends to pit parents against teachers. As Justin Phillips writes in the Chron, it’s not that simple (especially in light of Osterholm’s reading of Europe).

While the big scandal stakes appear to be coming from the usual suspects (DBI, DPW and PUC), let’s not forget the scandal at the Department of Human Resources, which is not going to go away and could turn out to be the more significant. And the more personal.

Caution! If you egg-on Nancy Pelosi, you will face consequences.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

DPH reports that issues with the California Immunization Registry data system have still not been resolved meaning these figures are most likely on the low side . As of March 14,  31 percent (236,421) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while 14 percent (108,496) had received two.  On March 14, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day rose to 6,362.  For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Estimates for the San Francisco R Number have been remarkably stable in the low .70s or high .60s. Today both  Covid-19 R Estimation and the ensemble put the Number at .68. Both estimate California’s R Number in the low .70s

Between February 12 and March 13,  DPH added 154 new cases to the Mission or 25.8 new cases per 10,000 residents. During that time, two neighborhoods added 22 new positive tests: one bordered by South Van Ness, Hampshire, 17th and 21st (38.2 cases per 10,000 residents), the other bordered by South Van Ness, Harrison, 23rd and Cesar Chavez (42.5 cases per 10,000 residents)

For the week ending March 8, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 34 or 4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The Phoenix Data Project sees the virus spread stabilizing in this zone, which is similar or below where the City was last October before the fall surge.

Hospitalizations seem to be plateauing on a level slightly above last October’s low. Today’s figures include 1 ICU transfer and 1 Acute Care transfer. For the week ending March 14, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 11 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On March 14, DPH reports Covid patients comprised less than 6 percent of ICU patients and less than 2 percent of Acute Care patients. DPH continues to report 100 percent of required PPE on hand, although it says nothing about what kind of PPE and how that PPE is being utilized.

According to the most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, SFGH has 3 Covid patients and 68 percent ICU occupancy. Across the Mission, CPMC has 5 Covid patients and 66 percent ICU occupancy.

With the 24th and Capp site and SFGH, the City (in contrast to private providers) appears to be prioritizing more vulnerable populations. As of March 14, 41.6 percent of the City’s vaccinations went to Asians, 21.6 percent to Latinx, 17.7 percent to Whites, 7.3 percent to Multi-racials and 7.1 percent to Blacks. The distribution rate for San Francisco as a whole is Asians 32.7 percent, Whites 29.8 percent, Latinx 10.3 percent, Multi-racials 9.8 percent and Blacks 3.3 percent. Native Americans and Pacific Islanders have received less than one percent of all shots administered.

Those over 60 comprise 91 percent of San Francisco Covid-related deaths, 68 percent with underlying conditions (other than age), 2 percent without underlying conditions.

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Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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