Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

What to do about schools? Six UCSF docs say vaccinate all public school employees this week. Fortunately the vaccnines aren’t named for historical figures.

There’s little evidence that mass public transit is a source of Covid outbreaks. Apparently San Franciscans are not following the science.

“Following the science” leads some to apply the logic of the worst case scenario even when doing so means repeatedly making the same mistakes.

Will there be a variant surge? Peter Khoury has a new video out on Phoenix Data Project explaining how we can recognize the surge quicker than last time and improve our response.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

DPH has yet to update vaccination numbers after February 25.  I assume vaccinations are still in progress and this is a reporting delay. On Februrary 25,  20 percent (149,646) of San Francisco residents over 16 have received one dose, while  8 percent (57,551) have received two. On February 25, 4941 shots were delivered to San Franciso residents, bringing the seven day rolling average of shots per day to 4251.3.   For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

The estimate for San Francisco’s R Number by Covid-19 R Estimation remains around .74 while the estimate for California is .68.  Although the ensemble’s average is close on San Francisco (.77), the estimate for California has taken a  jump over the past 4 days and is now .79

Between January 27 and February 25,  DPH added 282 new cases to the neighborhood bringing the cumulative total of Mission cases to 3910 or  65.6 cases per 1000 residents.   Around the City, Bayview Hunters Point has a case rate of 98.3 cases per 1000 residents, Visitacion Valley 73.3, Tenderloin 71.3, Excelsior  64.2, Bernal Heights 41.7, Western Addition 37.5, Potrero Hill 33.4, Hayes Valley 29, Russian Hill 27, Castro 24.8, Presidio Heights 21.8, Noe Valley 21,  Outer Richmond 19.5, Glen Park 19.2, Sunset/Parkside 18.1, Haight Ashbury 16.3 and Inner Sunset 16.1 cases per 1000 residents.

On a plateau for the past three days, for the week ending February 21, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the City was 65, or 7.5 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Much of the recent decline in the City’s cases has been driven by a dramatic fall in the Latinx cases. Since January 8, the 7 day average number of Latinx cases has fallen 90 percent.   

Today’s figures include 1 ICU transfer and 0 Acute Care transfers. For the week ending February 27, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 18 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 31 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On February 27, DPH reports 9.8 percent of ICU patients had Covid, as did 3.3 percent of Acute Care patients. DPH continues to report 100 percent of required PPE on hand.

Most recent numbers from the Federal Health and Human Services Department refelect the falling hospitalization trend, showing SFGH with 10 Covid patients and 6 available ICU beds.   

UCSF Doctor Bob Wachter tweets asymptomatic patients at UCSF have a positivity rate of .68 percent, which he uses to estimate the probability of 1 in 150 that a San Francisco resident who feels fine has Covid. In early January, when the rate was 5 perecent, he estimated the probability at 1 in 20. 

California’s 14 day positivity rate has fallen  below 3 percent for the first time since October 26.  On January 8, the rate was 14 percent.

As of Februrary 25, of those San Franciscans over 75, 58 percent had received one vaccination shot and 18 percent had received two. For those over 65, 61 percent had received one shot, 14 percent had received two.

Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco

While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj. The light shading on the right represents more uncertainty meaning today’s number is likely low.

Based on 412 deaths, San Francisco has a rate of 47.4 Covid related deaths per 100,000 residents. In comparison, Sacramento has 97.5, San Diego 99.4, Los Angeles 211.2, Portland 66.1, Seattle 64.4, Phoenix 214.3, Santa Fe 93.3, Dallas 131.7, Austin 70.8, New Orleans 195.8, Nashville 125.9, Cincinatti 119.5, Indianapolis 174.2, Chicago 179.4, Milwaukee 129.6, Detroit 235.2, Cleveland 139.3, Pittsburgh 140.3, Baltimore 144.1, Manhattan 238.8, Queens 381.3 and Boston 214.3 Covid related deaths per 100,000 residents.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. Following the science on public transit in that article:
    “But in general, she noted, riding transit is much safer if all passengers are wearing face masks that cover their noses and mouths”

    Do you believe that all passengers are wearing face masks covering their noses and mouths on SF public transit?

    I certainly don’t. Not with the zero enforcement of masking that we have in this city.

    Comparing us to cities that have laws, compliance, and enforcement seems like a bad idea.

    We can’t even manage to have slow streets that have everyone masked.

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