Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
What to do about schools? Six UCSF docs say vaccinate all public school employees this week. Fortunately the vaccnines aren’t named for historical figures.
There’s little evidence that mass public transit is a source of Covid outbreaks. Apparently San Franciscans are not following the science.
“Following the science” leads some to apply the logic of the worst case scenario even when doing so means repeatedly making the same mistakes.
Will there be a variant surge? Peter Khoury has a new video out on Phoenix Data Project explaining how we can recognize the surge quicker than last time and improve our response.
While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
Much of the recent decline in the City’s cases has been driven by a dramatic fall in the Latinx cases. Since January 8, the 7 day average number of Latinx cases has fallen 90 percent.
Most recent numbers from the Federal Health and Human Services Department refelect the falling hospitalization trend, showing SFGH with 10 Covid patients and 6 available ICU beds.
UCSF Doctor Bob Wachter tweets asymptomatic patients at UCSF have a positivity rate of .68 percent, which he uses to estimate the probability of 1 in 150 that a San Francisco resident who feels fine has Covid. In early January, when the rate was 5 perecent, he estimated the probability at 1 in 20.
California’s 14 day positivity rate has fallen below 3 percent for the first time since October 26. On January 8, the rate was 14 percent.
As of Februrary 25, of those San Franciscans over 75, 58 percent had received one vaccination shot and 18 percent had received two. For those over 65, 61 percent had received one shot, 14 percent had received two.
Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco
While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj. The light shading on the right represents more uncertainty meaning today’s number is likely low.
Based on 412 deaths, San Francisco has a rate of 47.4 Covid related deaths per 100,000 residents. In comparison, Sacramento has 97.5, San Diego 99.4, Los Angeles 211.2, Portland 66.1, Seattle 64.4, Phoenix 214.3, Santa Fe 93.3, Dallas 131.7, Austin 70.8, New Orleans 195.8, Nashville 125.9, Cincinatti 119.5, Indianapolis 174.2, Chicago 179.4, Milwaukee 129.6, Detroit 235.2, Cleveland 139.3, Pittsburgh 140.3, Baltimore 144.1, Manhattan 238.8, Queens 381.3 and Boston 214.3 Covid related deaths per 100,000 residents.