Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

As deaths from the last surge continue to rise, the seven-day average of daily new cases has dropped below 100 for the first time in over 3 months.

The Mission’s own Synergy school is taking part in a statewide pilot program using the BinaxNow rapid test as a tool to reopen schools.

The federal government may be more unified on its messaging, but the rest of the “experts” are fighting for attention. A Johns Hopkins surgeon wrote an oped in the Wall Street Journal predicting the virus will be mostly gone by April, while Dr. Michael Osterholm from the U. of Minnesota warns a massive hurricane coming that month. And others believe the virus is here to stay.

Could the N95 mask story get any more absurd? Yes it can.

Whatever your masking preference, let’s welcome Captain Rachel Moran to the SFPD’s Mission Station. Julian reports she’s the first woman to lead the station in over two decades. Does anyone remember the last one? Keep the boys cool Captain, and good luck.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

As of February 19, 18 percent (135,103) of San Francisco residents over 18 have received one dose, while  6 percent (44,009) have received two. On February 19, 3607 shots were delivered to San Franciso residents, with a seven day rolling average of shots per day of 3746.3.   For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

As some Bay Area county R Numbers sink below .7, San Francisco is not far behind.   Covid-19 R Estimation figures the number  .71, while the ensemble puts it at .75.   Estimates for California’s R Number range from a remarkably low .49 to .72 for an average of .65.

Between January 18 and February 16,  the Mission recorded 327 new cases for a cumulative total of 3844 or 64.5 cases per 1000 residents.

Despite the recent surge in outdoor dining, new cases continue to plunge.  For the week ending February 12, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the City was 97, or 11.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. The average new case count hasn’t been this low since November 13.

 

After dipping below 100, hospitalizations rose a bit. However, for the week ending February 18, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients still fell 18 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 32 percent and Acute Care availability was 26 percent. On February 18, DPH reported that 11 percent of ICU patients and less than 5 percent of Acute Care patients had Covid.

 

 Case numbers may be falling due to a declining rate of testing in Februrary. For the month so far, City residents have taken 90.2 tests per 1000 residents while for the month of January, the rate was 196.16 tests per 1000 residents.

The California 14 day average positivity rate has fallen below 4 percent for the first time since November 11.

Though new cases have dropped and deaths have risen, DPH reports the age group between 30 and 39 still account for 23 percent of the cases, and 1 percent of the deaths.

Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco

While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj.

Since December 1, Covid related deaths in San Francisco rose 129 percent. Deaths among those older than 70 now comprise 78 percent of the deaths, up about 3 percentage points from this summer.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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