Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
Wondering where all the Covid cases in SF are coming from? Let’s look at one obvious source.
Although no one knows why, local restaurant mogul and wino, Gavin Newsom, turned the State’s vaccination program over to Blue Shield. Yes, the State bungled badly, but can we reasonably expect Blue Shield to fix it?
The CDC says the British variant could become dominant in the US by March, although, thanks again to the Trump Maladministration, when it comes to tracking variants, the U.S. has been in the dark.
Good news for weekend pedestrians, and though it may seem cheesy to some, for others cheese has become the ultimate pandemic comfort food
While waiting for the Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
If, as some say, there is a race between the Vaccine and the Variants, at least in San Francisco, the Vaccine appears to be a risky bet. Still only about 9 percent (68,237) of San Francisco residents over 18 have received one dose, while about 2 percent (17,964) have received two. Only about 2000 shots were delivered yesterday and for the week ending February 1, the seven day rolling average of shots per day was 3,290 (about 140 less than yesterday’s number). The DPH goal is 10,000 shots per day.
But the race is not over. Covid-19 R Estimation for California and the ensemble of other models continue to estimate San Francisco’s R Number at .75 which means community spread is still “likely decreasing” and the dreaded British variant has yet to take over.Ā Estimates for California’s R Number range between .77 to .94 with an average of .77.Ā Ā
Between January 1 and January 30, the Mission logged 620 new cases for a cumulative total of 3678 or 61.7 cases per 1000 residents.
After a upward blip, new case numbers continued their downward slide. For the week ending January 26, the seven-day average of daily new cases was 165, or 19 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. We still have a ways to go to reach the the summer surge peak when the number was 131.
Through the month of January, Latinx residents had a case rate of 1002 positive tests per 10,000 residents, while Pacific Islanders had 757, Native Americans 668, Blacks 401, Multi-racial 200, White 189 and Asian 183 positive tests per 10,000 residents.
Today’s numbers include 2 ICU transfers, and 1 Acute Care transfer. For the week ending February 1, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fellĀ 6 percent.Ā Ā During that week,Ā the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 26 percent and for Acute Care beds 22 percent. On February 1, DPH reports Covid patients accounted for 18 percent of Ā ICU beds and 9 percent of Acute Care beds .Ā Ā
While SFGH remains 98 percent occupied with 0 available ICU beds, on the other side of the Mission, at Valencia and Cesar Chavez, CPMC is 76.5 percent occupied with 2 available ICU beds. According to the latest Federal data, St. Mary’s has 18 ICU beds available, the most in the CityĀ
Unlike some California cities, Los Angeles actually provides details about Covid patients. From August through December, of 500 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 66 percent were overweight or obese, 41 percent had type II diabetes and 64 percent had cardiovascular disease.Ā (Note: the tweet comes from Soumya Karlamangla, a health reporter at the LA Times).
During the month of January, Latinx residents had a positivity rate of 11.3 percent, while Blacks had a rate of 4.4 percent, Multi-racial 4.3 percent, Asians 3.6 percent and Whites 2.8 percent.
In less than a month, the the 14-day average positivity rate in the State has been cut in half. Though no cause for rejoicing, 7.2 percent is a lot better than 14 percent (the figure recorded on January 8).
Despite record high case numbers, the City’s contact tracers, according to DPH, are undeterred. For the two weeks ending January 29, tracers interviewed 82 percent of those who tested positive for Covid, while reaching 79 percent of their contacts. Despite those (relatively) gaudy figures, we still have no data as to whether outdoor dining is a source of community spread.
Although DPH does not provide this kind of data, it appears that Whites may have borne a relatively larger share of deaths during the recent surge.Ā