Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

If you’re feeling buoyant about declining cases and hospitalizations, see if you can find a dose of reality. Another big surge could be coming in two months. Dr. Michael Osterholm who usually traffics in baseball metaphors, resorted to a war metaphor (The Battle of the Bulge) when talking about the coming surge which he thinks will be worse than anything we’ve seen yet.

At yesterday’s UCSF Grand Rounds, lots of talk about variants and the potential threat they pose

Despite need and logic, the Biden Administration does not include mass production and promotion of effective high quality masks in its Pandemic Plan. New CDC director, Rochelle Walensky said N95 masks are uncomfortable to wear. An uncomfortable mask? Imagine that.

Here in San Francisco, we don’t worry about such trivialities. We have much more important things to do, like changing the names of schools.

Or opening up a secretive local media operation.

California’s eviction moratorium has been extended, and assistance for renters appears to be on the way.

A new flower shop has opened in the neighborhood and Beer Week should get here before the variants arrive.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

No new SF numbers today. As of January 26, DPH reports 7 percent (53,383) of San Francisco residents over 18 had received one dose, and 2 percent (12,650) had received two.  The goal is 10,000 shots per day.

If a more transmissible variant is crawling around, it has yet to picked up by R Number models. Covid-19 R Estimation keeps the San Francisco R Number at .86, while the ensemble lowers it to .79, approximately the same as the California number.  

Between December 27 and January 25, DPH reported 721 new cases  in the Mission for a cumulative total of 3607 cases, or 60.5 cases per 1000 residents. SF remains mostly a tale of two cities. Bayview Hunters Point has a rate of 91 cases per 1000 residents while Visitacion Valley has 66.3, Tenderloin 62.7, Excelsior 58, Outer Mission 53, Potrero Hill 30.8, Hayes Valley 26.5, Castro 22.9, Noe Valley 19, Outer Richmond 16.9, Sunset/Parkside 16.3, Haight Ashbury 14.7, Inner Sunset 14.5 and Seacliff 13.6 cases per 1000 residents.

For the week ending January 21, the seven-day average of daily new cases dropped to 192, or 22 average new cases per day per 100,000 residents. This is the first time the average new case figure has been below 200 since December 3. The DPH goal is 1.8 average new cases per day.

As of January 26, Latinx residents have tested postive 2291 times in January; Whites 1533, Asians 1360, Blacks 371, and Multi-racial 169.

Hospitalizations continue to decline. Today’s numbers include 2 ICU transfers, and 1 transfer in Acute Care. For the week ending January 27, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell  24 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 24 percent and for Acute Care beds 24 percent. On January 27, DPH reports  64 ICU beds and 345 Acute Care beds available.  DPH does not report if available beds are staffed, but continues to assert 100 percent of required PPE on hand. 

Over the past two months, 34,777 tests have been collected among Mission residents for a rate of 583 per 1000 residents. The average Mission positivity rate is 5.13 percent.

As of January 26, Latinx residents who tested in January have a 12 percent positivity rate,  while Multi-racial residents have 4.74 percent, Blacks 4.5 percent, Asians 3.6 percent and Whites have 2.94 percent positivity.

DPH reports 20 deaths in the Mission, 33 in Excelsior, 29 in Bayview Hunters Point, 25 in Sunset/Parkside, 24 in Pacific Heights, and 17 in the Tenderloin. Most other neighborhoods have less than 10 deaths. No one from Mission Bay, Treasure Island, Presidio Heights or Seacliff has died.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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