Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

The good news is new case numbers continue to fall as hospitalizations level off. The bad news is both remain at record high levels and high positivity rates at the 24th Street BART testing station indicate the surge continues.

Staffing shortages in California hospitals are a bigger crunch than lack of beds. The hospitals could have prepared over the summer for what everyone knew was coming. Instead they lobbied to increase the load on existing staff. And Newsom said, OK.

The Vaccination didn’t come this morning. But this week for sure. Probably. Despite City doses dwindling, private providers have so far not been affected.

An unusual strain of rational thinking seems to be infecting the City’s response to its unhoused residents.

A Michelin-starred restaurant is moving out of the Mission and some teachers prefer to exploit students rather than educate them.

 

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

California has gotten off to a poor start and SF is not doing much better. As of January 18, 3.4 percent (29,599) of San Francisco residents have received one dose, and .7 percent (6433) have received two.

Covid-19 R Estimation has lowered its projection for San Francisco’s R number to 1.02. The ensemble ranges from .92 to 1.09 for an average of 1.01.  Estimates for California’s R number range from .83 to 1. for an average of .92

Numbers for the most recent thirty-day period continued falling. Between December 18 and January 16, DPH reports 766 new cases in the Mission for a total of 3467 or 56.1 cases per 1,000 residents. 

With the holidays behind us, it appears shelter-in-place lite has begun to have an effect. For the week ending January 12, the seven-day average of daily new cases dropped to 309, or 35.6 average new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Between January 1 and January 16, Latinx residents had 36.5 percent of the new cases, Whites 24 percent, Asians 21.6 percent, Blacks 5.6 percent and Multi-racial 2.7 percent of new cases.  

Although ICU patients rose, total Covid hospitalizations have begun to level off. Today’s numbers include 1 ICU transfer, and 2 transfers in Acute Care. For the week ending January 18, the weekly change in Covid positive patients dropped  3 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 25 percent and for Acute Care beds 24 percent. On January 18, DPH reports  81 ICU beds and 484 Acute Care beds available.  DPH does not report if available beds are staffed, but continues to assert 100 percent of required PPE on hand. 

This graph, from HHS, contains more information on hospital bed occupancy around the state. Like most Covid information, it’s about a week late and does not add up to the Citywide numbers DPH provides. Unlike DPH, it gives information on specific hospitals, including SFGH

 

Of the 567 tests collected yesterday at the 24th Street BART station, 12.15 percent were positive. Latinx tests had a 14.71 percent positivity rate and non-Latinx tests had a positivity rate of 6.29 percent.

According to DPH, so far this month those “experiencing homelessness” accounted for 50 new cases or 1.08 percent of all new cases.

Only 2 deaths have been attributed to those “experiencing homelessness”, a number which has remained static through the current surge. Deaths reported by DPH “are suspected to be associated with COVID-19 or have COVID-19 listed as the cause of death.” 

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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