Hillary Ronen campaigns for Jackie Fiedler and Dean Preston. Photo by Leslie Rabine

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

With the virus rising again, here are some tips on lowering the risk of indoor transmission.

Unfortunately I could not find any tips on lowering anxiety over tomorrow’s election. As Joe points out, it’s going to be almost as consequential locally as nationally.

Elsewhere in the neighorhood, Sean Monterossa, gunned down earlier this year by the cops in Vallejo, won’t be forgotten.

And Maria takes another gastonomic journey, this time to Nepal

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

On October 30, DPH reported the Mission had 1761 positive cases, or 29.5 cases per 1000 residents. In comparison, Bayview Hunters Point had 42, Tenderloin 34.6, Excelsior 25.3, Potrero Hill 13.6, Nob Hill 8, Inner Sunset 5.1 and Haight Ashbury 4.2 cases per 1000 residents.

Last week we could see it coming. The model we use estimates the San Francisco R number has now jumped to 1.27 the highest number in the State. Not all models agree. An ensemble of other models estimates the figure at .94.  Let’s hope the City stopped its reopening plans in time.

No surprise, case numbers are also up. For the week ending October 24, the Citywide seven-day average number of daily cases 41 or 4.7 cases per 100,000 residents. Three weeks ago, the seven-day daily average was 27.

Good times seem to be fading fast in the rear view mirror. With the rise in R number and cases, it comes as no surprise that positivity rates are rising as well. Though still low by comparative standards, this was the first time the Citywide average positivity rate has been above 1 percent since October 3.

Though absolute hospitalization figures remained the same as yesterday, over the two weeks ending October 31, the number of Covid positive patients rose by 27 percent.  As of October 31, DPH continues to report adequate hospital capacity, with a seven-day average percentage available ICU beds at 41 percent, and available Acute Care beds at 25 percent.

Ninety-four percent of the cases are below the age of 70, while 74 percent of the deaths are above that age.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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  1. One glaring deficiency in this data is that they do not reveal the health conditions of the people being counted as having died of Covid-19. The CDC has reported that 94% of people counted as coronavirus casualties in the U.S. had co-morbidities, i.e. other pre-existing conditions that contributed to their death, and only 6% died from Covid alone and were otherwise healthy.

    In other words, the way deaths are being counted (or rather, miscounted) is making the virus look much more deadly than it is. In fact the lockdowns are causing more harm and death – higher suicide rates from people who’ve lost their jobs or businesses, more drug overdoses, more domestic violence, other health conditions going untreated because people aren’t going in for treatment, etc. – than the virus itself.

    For a compendium of well-sourced information on all aspects of Covid-19 and the responses to it from around the world, visit SWPRS.org/Facts-About-Covid-19.

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