Presidential Debate Summary

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Those who were around during the HIV/AIDs crisis in the City may feel like it’s “deja vu all over again” watching the Department of Public Health engage in its old tactics of evasion, obfuscation, contradiction while shining on those most in need. And this is one of  best local public health departments in the country? OMG.

Although the numbers remain low in SF and California, Dr. George Rutherford warned at yesterday’s UCSF Grand Rounds that “we’re teetering at the precipice”.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

On October 20, the total number of positive Covid cases in the Mission climbed to  1701, or 28.5 cases per 1000 residents. Between September 20 and October 19, the Mission added 142 cases, 52 more than Bayview Hunters Point, the neighborhood with the next highest figure.

The seven-day average number of SF daily cases for the week ending October 16 was 32, or 3.6 cases per 100,000 residents.

Remember those super low R numbers over the past couple weeks. It seems they were a mirage. On October 20, the model we use estimated SF’s R  number 1.11. An ensemble of other models places it at 1. Get prepared.

At yesterday’s hearing, DPH displayed a chart indicating the total tests conducted by the City between March 1 and September 30 was approximately 170,000.  Later in the presentation, one of the DPH reps said the City conducts around 60 percent of all the tests. Wait a minute. Although I don’t have the total number of tests as of September 30, let’s be conservative and assume it was around 500,000 (it’s 633,177 now). If so, then only about 35 percent of the total tests were conducted by the City. Who’s administering the other tests? What is the positivity rate? Do these, for example, include daily tests for the Dubs and other favored, but low risk, groups? DPH wouldn’t say yesterday, and they don’t make the information publicly available.

Even though case numbers are currently low, Covid deaths are rising at a higher rate than ever. Since September 1, the number has increased by 35 percent. Although we can assume this is due in large part to the June-July surge, there has been no explanation and from the information DPH provides, there’s no way of knowing.

Nor  do we know much about who has recently died. Most appear to be “unknown” in terms of race and ethnicity.

Since October 10 the total number of confirmed and suspected Covid patients in SF hospitals has fluctuated around 30.  During that time the percentage of available ICU beds has fluctuated between 35 and 40 percent, while available Acute Care beds has ranged between 20 and 30 percent. The DPH goal is to keep 15 percent of Acute Care beds and 20 percent of ICU beds available.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

Join the Conversation

No comments

  1. I kind of wish you’d report on the ridiculous disparity between cases in the Mission and Bayview, and places like the Outer Richmond. Glancing at the Cases by Zip code map yesterday on the sfdph site, I noticed that the number of cases in the Outer Richmond between 24th and 19th Avenue north of Geary, (a census tract that includes upwards of 5K people) for the period of Sept 19th to Oct 19th was…wait for it…1. A single confirmed case. For the area of 19th to Park Presidio, still north of 5K people, for that time period, the number of confirmed cases was… 1. 1 case.

    West of 24th out to 32nd Avenue it was a absolute plague, with 3 cases confirmed. For the month. That’s astonishing.

    I know the reasons for this disparity are fairly obvious (lots of mask wearing out here, etc…), Still, I think this is fairly newsworthy.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *