Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
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With tough winter months ahead, noted pessimist, Donald McNeil Jr., a reporter with the New York Times, who’s covered the pandemic since it broke out in Wuhan, has a surprisingly optimistic view of what we can look forward to in the spring.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
Between September 10 and October 9, the Mission logged a Citywide high of 149 cases, or 25 cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate for that period was 15.3 per 10,000 residents. In comparison, Tenderloin had a rate of 31, Excelsior 29, Portola 27, and Sunset/Parkside 5 cases per 10,000 residents. Glen Park recorded only 1 case.
Case numbers continue to fall in San Francisco. The seven-day average number of SF daily cases for the week ending October 6 was 29, or 3.4 cases per 100,000 residents, well within the DPH “low alert” yellow zone. Note that on July 20, the seven-day average was 130.
On October 11, total SF Covid hospitalizations increased slightly to 36. Nonetheless the rate of weekly change, a DPH “key indicator”, fell 39 percent. More than adequate hospital capacity remains.
SF continues to report a high number of tests, which is a good thing (even though we have yet to hear about expanded testing in the southeastern neighborhoods). Dr. Michael Osterholm reminds us in his weekly podcast, that we can’t test our way into safety or out of the pandemic.
The model we use estimates the San Francisco R number at .80. The consensus R number for Calfornia is just below 1.
The case fatality rate in the City remains around 1 percent.
San Francisco has had lower case and death rates than most other cities in the country and the world. It’s remarkable how little change we’ve seen over time in the reported demographics.