Still working from home? Photo by Mark Rabine.

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

During last week’s UCSF Grand Rounds, Dr. George Rutherford refered to last month’s motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota saying “When you talk about super-spreader events, this is the classic of all time.”  He attributed 266,000 positive cases to the 10-day event. One reader, who is neither a motorcycle enthusiast or virus denier, found this figure hard to imagine.

The claim that 250,000+ COVID-19 cases were linked to Sturgis is based on one study’s estimate of how the motorcycle rally could have impacted the pandemic. It has been widely criticized. As several statisticians and epidemiologists have noted, the models used for this study contained serious flaws, and the report arrived at a conclusion not supported by available data.

Exaggeration may work in politics, as The Little Prince (Jared Kushner) boasted to Bob Woodward. Not so much in the context of a public health pandemic.

Meanwhile, on the subject of taking responsibility for misconduct, should the SFPD be held to standards we expect from children? Any standards?

Scroll down for today’s numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

Seven cases were added to the Mission’s totals bringing us to 1412 through September 12,  or 23.6 per 1,000 residents.

As of September 8, the seven-day average number of daily cases for the week the average was 61,  still enough to warrant a  “high alert” warning from DPH.

R number estimates in San Francisco and across California suggest a stable transmission rate for the virus. It will be instructive to watch how the recent reopenings affect the rate.

San Francisco’s positivity rate has been below 3 percent all this month and most of August. The World Health Organization’s target is 5 percent.

California’s positivity rate has fallen significantly from 6.3 percent at the beginning of August.

Though the ICU patient count has been relatively stable recently, Acute Care continues to rise. Whether this is due to the smoke, we don’t know. The 29 percent increase over the past week far exceeds the DPH target of 10 percent. As of September 13, DPH reports 124 ICU and 480 Acute Care beds available.

DPH continues to supply no demographic or geographic information on hospitalizations or contact tracing. We have asked and received no reply.

Of the 91 deaths, 83 had one or more underlying conditions.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

Join the Conversation

2 Comments

  1. What’s with the random intervals in the gradient for the map shading at the top? The spacing makes it look like the intervals are even but they are 6, 5, 6, 4, 1.

    For the SF case count and 7-day average graph, why are the y-axis values different? This is misleading. It would seem to make much more sense to have the same values so the 7-day average overlay more clearly correlates to the actual case counts.

    The test result commentary says SF bas been below 3% all this month but there’s clearly positive test results as high as 5% shown on the graph. Did you mean the average has been less than 3% all of September?

  2. Could someone explain why the death rate for asians is so high while the percentage contracting the virus is low according to your population graph.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *