Good Morning Mission. And welcome to Virus Village for your daily data dump.
Testing Results. The San Francisco Department of Public Health reports 51 new positive cases over the past few days, raising the total to 4071.
The new 7-day average of new cases stands at 43. The number of new cases per 100,000 residents is 5.1 — better, but still in the “orange” zone which is not great.
The percentage of positive test results reported on July 5 was 6%. This is a relatively high figure and may reflect delays in receiving testing and analysis results. The overall rate is still reported at 3% rising to 4% over the past three weeks.
Deaths. No new deaths since June 18.
Hospitalizations. On July 6, there were 5 new hospitalizations. This increase reflects 2 more transfers and 7 more SF patients in Acute care, with a drop of 4 from ICU.
Over the past week DPH reports a hospitalization increase of 20% for the week ending July 6. Given the goal is to keep the increase below 10%, we are in the red zone (“high alert”). The good news is the rate of increase has dropped considerably over the past few days. And hospitals remain fully capable of dealing with a surge.
Contact Tracing. DPH still reports tracers have contacted 82% of positive cases, and 88% of named contacts of positive cases. These numbers haven’t changed for a couple weeks, which may indicate delays due to July 4, or that problems with contact tracing remain.
The R Number. The R number is an estimate of transmission rates, which means the average number of cases infected by a given case over the course of that individual’s disease progression. If R is greater than 1, the epidemic is increasing. If R is less than 1, it means the virus is in decline. When the reopening of San Francisco was being planned, Director of DPH, Grant Colfax relied on the R number among other factors. At that time, San Francisco’s R number was 1, or slightly below. Over the most recent week, the estimate is 1.29 (which is a slight improvement). Other Bay Area counties range from 1.48 (Alameda) to 1.74 (Santa Clara). By this measure, the virus is clearly not fading away. For more on the R number go to https://ca-covid-r.info
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.