Coyote passing Bernal rock. Photo by community contributor.

Good morning Mission. And welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.

If you haven’t already, I urge you to read Madison’s article on the UCSF Grand Rounds. Yesterday afternoon’s episode included conversations with docs from Miami, Atlanta and Houston. Yes, things are bad, and they aren’t getting much better. But the real import of the story to me is the impact this is having on our healthcare workers, here and around the country.

Too often we (I) get caught up in numbers, vaccines, treatments, masks and moronic thunderbolts from Zeus (aka “The President”). But this crisis is about people, especially healthcare workers. Like all of us, they may have their shortcomings, but they’re the ones who will ultimately save our lives and our communities. If you care about them and the work they do, forget the billboards and the cheering. Keep distance (physical, not social), wear a mask, wash your hands –it’s really not much to ask.

OK, enough pontificating. Onto the numbers and today, they look very similar to yesterday except for the rate of positive results from testing. Overall, positive cases in SF, the Bay Area,  California, and the country continue to rise at discouraging rates.

Scroll down for more.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

The Mission District reported 22 new cases, for a total of 849. Although the Mission has recorded the most cases in absolute numbers, Bayview-Hunters Point has significantly more per 100,000 residents (199 to 142). In contrast, Seacliff has less than 10 per 100,000.

The average number of daily new cases per 100,000 stands at 10.1, a very high number especially when you consider the DPH goal is 1.8.

Over 6%. Wow! We haven’t seen a number like this for quite some time, more than twice the overall average. However it is based on a shockingly low number of tests analyzed and reported, so could represent something of an outlier. Let’s hope so. Mission Local is looking into testing delays and other snafus and we hope to have a report out soon.

The average number of tests performed daily by the City for the week ending July 20 remains slightly over 3,000.

Yes, as cases rise, so do hospitalizations and deaths. Local numbers may look good compared to other areas, but San Francisco is not an island (unfortunately).

Hospitalization figures have apparently not changed from yesterday with 122 COVID patients counted as of July 21. The number includes confirmed and suspected COVID patients as well as transfers. Note the number of COVID ICU patients in the graph above also represents the same as yesterday.

The availability of hospital beds remains good, surpassing the goals set out by DPH, though the percentage of Acute Care beds continues to fall slightly. The PPE stockpile oddly remains at 89%, where it has been stuck for a few weeks, except for a couple of days when it dropped.

Readers have asked about the demographics of hospitalization, i.e. who is in Acute Care, who is in the ICU etc. DPH doesn’t make these figures readily available. City Health Director Grant Colfax said last week that the average age of patients at SFGH was 41.

We are trying to find out what we can about the demographics as well as the relationship of  SFGH to the city’s private hospitals, which is also something I don’t understand.

No big changes in our local R number, around 1.25, which generally means 100 infected people can be expected to transmit the disease to 125 people, who can then be expected to transmit to 156 people, and on and on, fueling an exponential growth.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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