Good Morning Mission. Welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.
Testing. The San Francisco Department of Health is reporting 50 new positive test cases this morning. Though the number represents a considerable drop from last week, don’t get your hopes up. Numerous indicators continue to show serious problems, which have forced City officials to stop reopening the economy for the foreseeable future. See Hospitalizations below.
At yesterday’s press conference, City Health Director, Grant Colfax said the rate of positive cases per 100,000 people has increased to about 7.8 as of July 11, well within the high alert “red zone.” The seven day rolling average of new cases for the week ending July 11, is reported to be 63.
Also on July 11, the positivity rate (the percentage of tests confirmed positive) was about 3 percent based on 1088 tests. This is a rise from yesterday’s reported 2 percent, but consistent with the overall average 3 percent in the City and less than the 5 percent target set by Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. In comparison, Arizona as of July 14 was averaging 26.5 percent (over seven days) and Florida 18.7 percent. California’s 7-day average was 7.7 percent.
Although San Francisco has increased its testing (a seven day average of 2,751 as of July 10), it reportedly has the capacity to increase if needed. However, recent spikes in other areas have once again put a strain on available supplies for administering and analyzing tests.
The good news is the Food and Drug Administration has authorized emergency use of a faster test, which is cheaper and easier to produce . If this test gets approval for widespread use, it will cut through the delays that have plagued testing since the initial outbreak, which has made containment of the virus (without lockdown) nearly impossible.
Hospitalizations. As of Sunday, July 12, there were 91 confirmed COVID patients in SF Hospitals. It is the first time in months we’ve had a figure over 90. This includes 17 transfers from other California counties. There were 23 ICU patients (and 11 transfers). A month ago, there were only 6 ICU patients. The rate of increased hospitalizations (not counting transfers) was 30 percent for a three- day rolling average over the seven day period ending July 12. Well within the red zone.
Maybe more worrisome is the decrease in personal protective equipment for health care workers. After weeks of reporting 89 percent of essential PPE categories with a 30-day supply, the new figure, as of July 6, has dropped to 78 percent or into the orange, low alert, zone.
Although the DPH reports it currently has the capacity to handle a surge, Colfax warned yesterday that if the rate of transmission does not decrease, our hospitals could become quickly overwhelmed.
The Mission. As of July 13, there were 681 positive cases reported in the Mission, the highest number in the City. We have less than ten reported deaths.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.