Developments in Development is a “weekly” column recapping real estate, housing, planning, zoning and construction news.
When it comes to affordability, San Francisco is facing a tricky balancing act. Planners are making an effort in one illustrative case to make it clear to a developer who wants to replace a building on Mission Street with condos will face serious scrutiny if the project means removing rent controlled housing.
The building that houses the Old Jerusalem restaurant on Mission between 25th and 26th streets is being considered for redevelopment. In their feedback to the developer, the planners have made it clear that a number of different area-specific restrictions like the Interim Controls and the MAP 2020 plan establish a high threshold for demolishing rental units. And there are two rent-controlled apartments in that building.
In its response to the developers, the planning department asks the developers to consider a relocation plan for the tenants prior to a hearing, among other conditions that must be met.
That aligns well with the view that building new housing is much slower and more expensive than keeping an existing tenant (who would otherwise be creating more demand for the low-supply affordable housing being built) in place.In fact, 48Hills argues in an analysis of the city’s housing balance report, that the loss of affordable housing in San Francisco nearly eats up all of the progress on building it.
Building that affordable housing of course costs money. The state assembly (and then perhaps the voters) will vote on a bill recently approved by the senate that would pour $3 billion in bonds into building affordable housing. That bill is waiting for approval alongside former District 8 Supervisor and State Senator Scott Wiener’s proposal to give cities that aren’t meeting their housing production goals the legislative equivalent of a swift kick in the pants.
But while we are seeing some cities build rapidly for those who can afford market rate, they fall short of below market rate housing targets. Take Oakland, for example, which according to the East Bay Express last year reached a laughable 4.5 percent of its affordable housing goal.
That’s not to say that building market rate housing has no effect on prices. RentCafé and Yardi Matrix have observed flattening in rents in expensive markets around the country, San Francisco among them, and analysts there believe it’s because of production. Yardi’s analyst believes if the building trend continues, rents will continue to fall.
Also, when you factor in existing rents (what people are paying where they live, not what apartments are being listed for), rents are lower than headlines might suggest.
A less clear picture emerges in home sales – Two different condos on Valencia Street are being listed at a loss from their original sales. At the same time, San Francisco’s median home price is again record-breaking, now sitting at $1.5 million.
The other big factor often cited in conversations about why rents are so high, namely an influx of high wage earners, is also not slowing down. Recent reports of yuppie exodus certainly had me believing that the tide had turned, but one workforce study shows tech, for one, has no trouble attracting workers. Sure, some local workers are leaving for less expensive pastures, but plenty of East Coast folks are happy to move in.
In any case, building continues.
Condos have been proposed for the former site of Cole Hardware, where everything was obliterated in a June 2016 fire. Cole Hardware, meanwhile, is in negotiations to make a comeback.
Apartments were also recently approved (17.5 percent of them affordable) on the northern end of the Mission at an old sausage factory.
For anyone ready to chime in with aesthetic feedback on any of these designs, a parting thought for this week: Broke-Ass Stuart wants to christen Salesforce Tower “the Butt Plug.” Apart from presenting an etiquette conundrum, it’s simply inaccurate.
There are plenty of alternatives to be found in the comments section of that story. But I humbly offer mine, which is to refer to Salesforce Tower as “The Finger.” This comes a little closer to describing its shape and still can be turned into a variety of cynical comments on the tech industry’s gifts to the Bay Area.