Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
The New York Times has a new Covid risk evaluator out. According to the Times, the current risk of contracting the virus in SF, despite declining case numbers, is rated “very high.” The Times’ numbers are different than DPH numbers, not unusual, but the general conclusion is the same: there’s a lot of virus circulating around town.
If you’re up for more anxiety this morning, check out Manaus.
Uber and friends lobbied to get their drivers quickly vaccinated, but have drivers been provided effective masks, or given Covid training? Based on my observations, I would say no. You can be safe in a car by simply opening the windows.
A man was killed last night riding his bike at the intersection of 24th and San Jose. This has consistently been one of the most dangerous intersections in the Mission and the absence a stop sign on 24th is absurd. And deadly.
On a somewhat brighter side, Maria reports Lolinda is providing “SO. MUCH. FOOD.” in its new family meals to go.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
Operation Snail’s Pace continues it’s painfully slow rollout in SF. As of January 26, DPH reports 7 percent (53,383) of San Francisco residents over 18 had received one dose, and 2 percent (12,650) had received two. Ā
Covid-19 R Estimation places the San Francisco R Number at .85,Ā the lowest it’s been since October 9. Ā Estimates for California’s R Number range between .73 and .94 for an average of .81.
Reflecting the holiday surge, between December 26 and January 24, DPH reports 730 new cases Ā in the Mission for a cumulative total of 3587 cases, or 60.2 cases per 1000 residents. Over that time frame, Bayview-Hunters Point had 806 new cases for a Ā cumulative total of 3387 cases, or 90.6 cases per 1000 residents!
Although new cases have been in slow decline, the current level of community spread suggests a “very high” risk. For the week ending January 20, the seven-day average of daily new cases dropped to 203, or 23.3 average new cases per day per 100,000 residents.Ā
Although the Times asserts the 14-day average numbers of hospitalizations increasing, DPH numbers have shown a steady decrease. Whichever source you use, total Covid hospitalizations remain at record high levels. Today’s numbers include 3 ICU transfers, and 3 transfers in Acute Care. For the week ending January 26, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fellĀ 26 percent.Ā Ā During that week,Ā the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 24 percent and for Acute Care beds 24 percent. On January 26, DPH reportsĀ 64 ICU beds and 332 Acute Care beds available.Ā DPH does not report if available beds are staffed, but continues to assert 100 percent of required PPE on hand.Ā
Given the current crowds in California’s hospitals, Newsom’s decision to re-open has been drawing wide criticism. When the Chron’s editorial board points out the obvious, you know there’s a serious problem.
For the first time in over two weeks, the Citywide average positivity rate has dipped below 4 percent. As of Wednesday, 8446 total tests have been collected at the 24th Street BART station. The total posivity rate is 9.8 percent, with a Latinx positivity rate of 11.34 percent.
New, and strange as ever, contact tracing figures from DPH. For the two weeks ending January 22, tracers reportedly interviewed 80 percent of all those who tested positive and reached 75 percent of their named contacts. The Phoenix Data Project indicates that whereas things may have improved since November, tracers are still likely overwhelmed (scroll down to “Transmission Category”).
DPH reports the 308 number was first reached on January 20. It’s now undoubtedly higher. Since December 1, Covid related deaths have increased 79 percent.
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It’s significant that the New York Times, which has independent access to hospitals, reports a different and higher number of hospitalizations and intensive care patients that DPH. Who do you trust, who has told the truth consistently about Covid? Not DPH.
Under Breed and Colfax, DPH is a political entity, there to present the scenario that serves their political ends, which is to consistently work to minimize the actual spread of Covid in the City: by not testing in the epicenters of the epidemic, by not allocating sufficient resources for contact tracing, by not doing outreach in communities of color, etc. etc. Plain and simple, they consistently lie and obfuscate.
ā Whichever source you use, total Covid hospitalizations remain at record high levels. ā
Weāre at around 170, down from a peak of 265. Itās still high, but not record high. We are down 35% from the New Year peak (in just a couple of weeks!), and lower than levels seen in both April and May 2020.